Damp finish to 2009....Frigid air coming....

>> Thursday, December 31, 2009



The minor winter weather event continues to pull away from our region today. However, another area of low pressure will continue to give us the chance of some drizzle and light rain at times today and tonight with highs in the lower 40s and lows in the mid to upper 30s.

New Year's Day will feature lots of morning clouds, but some afternoon sun should work in with highs in the 40s. Then, the big plunge of arctic air will arrive.

Highs this weekend through next week will only be in the 30s with low in the teens most morning. This will be an impressive, sustained blast of cold air.

It looks like it will be cold and dry through mid-week next week with the storm track suppressed to our south. However, there are lots of indications in the medium range modeling that a storm system could roll through around the end of next week. Lots of cold air around.....it bears watching.

I want to take a moment and say a big thank you to you for stopping by the blog this year. It has been a great year, and I look forward to rolling through 2010 with you.

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5pm update....

>> Wednesday, December 30, 2009

Radar returns are certainly impressive upstream over Georgia and the Deep South. Sure looks like this system could over-perform at bit tonight in terms of precip amounts.

The air is cold and dry....dewpoints are in the mid to upper teens in many spots. So I still expect a period of sleet, and maybe even some snow in spots, as the precip moves in, with the best chances being along and west of roughly I-85.

A Winter Weather Advisory has been hoisted up in the mountains and the adjacent foothills for tonight, and certainly some accumulation of sleet and even snow are quite possible there.

In the Piedmont, the sleet will kick over to rain, and freezing rain in spots that can wet bulb below freezing. I don't expect any major accumulations, but a dusting of sleet or a glazing on some elevated surfaces can't be ruled out.

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Bit of wintry precip tonight....frigid this weekend



Above is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video. Give it a look...

Dry through the day today...although you will likely see some returns on the radar, most of it shouldn't be able to reach the ground until this evening.

Precip will settle in this evening and tonight, and as that occurs, temps in many spots could drop to at or below freezing. Some sleet or freezing rain looks possible for a while, but I don't think this is a huge problem. But we will keep an eye on it.

Tomorrow now looks mainly dry, although some drizzle could occur at times.

A frigid airmass will arrive this weekend, and it should largely stick around through next week. At the moment, it looks like storm systems will remain suppressed to our south, meaning cold and dry weather. But this is the type of pattern where you have to watch for surprises.

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Lots of cold air....

>> Tuesday, December 29, 2009



Give the video above a look....lots and lots of cold air on the way. One storm system moves through Thursday, and I show you what wintry precip might be involved in a few spots on the front and back end of it. Right now, all if it looks insignificant outside of the mountains.

Early next week, the European model pops some snow around the region while most other modeling is dry. I show you why in today's video....

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Cold air here to stay....

>> Monday, December 28, 2009



Today will be chilly and breezy with highs in the low to mid 40s under a partly cloudy sky. This is the next in a continued series of blasts of cold air headed our way. Lows tonight will drop well down into the 20s, and highs tomorrow will only be in the lower 40s despite a sunny sky.

Clouds will roll in Wednesday, with the next shot at precip arriving later Wednesday night. As the precip moves in, an initial period of freezing rain looks possible, but at this point I expect it to be brief and fairly insignificant.

A chilly rain could linger through much of Thursday, and then as another piece of energy dives in, if we can keep precip around long enough into Thursday night, a period of light snow would be possible. But that portion of the forecast is surrounded by question marks.

What is not in question is the cold air coming over the New Year's weekend. This will likely be the coldest air so far this season with some highs in the 30s and lows in the teens.

There is the potential for another system around next Tuesday or so that bears watching.

I see no end to the cold and occasionally storm pattern right through mid-January.

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Christmas weekend....

>> Saturday, December 26, 2009

Nice shot this morning from Haywood county.....



Enjoy the rest of your Christmas weekend. Yep, still watching the happenings for next week. Will be back on a normal schedule Monday morning with a new video and full blog post....

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Merry Christmas!

>> Friday, December 25, 2009

God's richest blessings to you and yours on this Christmas!

Icy Christmas morning in the mountains and foothills....here is a shot up in Boone on Highway 321....similar scenes are unfolding all over the higher terrain this morning....

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Icy Christmas morning on the way in the mountains, foothills, and extreme northwest Piedmont

>> Thursday, December 24, 2009

A major storm system continues to cause anything from blizzard conditions in the Plains to the western Great Lakes to tornadic activity in the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley.

Around the Carolinas, a quiet Christmas Eve is unfolding with highs in the mid to upper 40s for most with some increasing clouds.

Rain will spread into the region later tonight, and in the mountains, foothills, and extreme northwest Piedmont, temperatures will drop to at or below freezing, meaning freezing rain will occur. This could be a significant ice event for the mountains and the northern foothills, but I think for much of the northwest Piedmont, the temperature should relatively quickly warm above freezing, ending the icing potential there. However, a different story in the foothills and mountains, and some significant icing is possible by Christmas morning.

Christmas Day will feature rain around the region, and some storms are even possible from the southern Piedmont through the coastal plain.

The weekend will be quiet and cool, and then another shot of cold air arrives by later Sunday and Monday.

Next week still looks interesting. I still think there is a potential wintry-weather making system on the table late Wednesday or Thursday, and the pattern remains very active through the first week to ten days of January.

I wish you and yours the warmest and merriest of Christmases. God bless.....

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Dreaming of a wet Christmas....

>> Wednesday, December 23, 2009



Most of us will see a chilly, rainy Christmas. However, my thoughts are unchanged about the possibility of a period of freezing rain later Thursday night into early Christmas morning over the northwest Piedmont, foothills, and mountains. There is a good chance that a freezing rain advisory will be required for that part of our region, and we will get a better handle on it as we go through the next 24 hours.

In most spots, the freezing rain shouldn't last too long before temps warm above freezing and we see a chilly rain Christmas day. In the eastern part of the region, some thunderstorms are even possible.

The rest of the Christmas weekend looks pretty quiet. We might see a few flurries Sunday night or Monday as the upper level dynamics pull through, but it doesn't look like a big deal.

I still think the system that will roll through around a week from now has some wintry possibilities around the region, and the pattern still looks very interesting as we head into early January.

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Cool and quiet today....next system night before Christmas

>> Tuesday, December 22, 2009



Today will again feature lots of sunshine with highs in the 40s. Melting will continue today in the areas with snow left on the ground, and again tonight, some re-freezing will occur in those areas with lows in the mid to upper 20s.

Clouds will increase tomorrow ahead of our next system. That storm system will be a major, disruptive system in a lot of places tomorrow through Christmas Day. Blizzard conditions will occur from the Plains into the Great Lakes, and some strong storms are possible in the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Around our area, we will see precip move in by Thursday night and continue through a good bit of Christmas Day. We will have a cold air damming scenario set itself up later Thursday, and the airmass could very well be cold enough for a period of freezing rain early Christmas morning, mainly in the northwest Piedmont and Foothills. Typically, models underestimate the cold air with cold air damming scenarios, and there is even more potential for that this time around due to the extensive snow pack over the eastern US. At the moment, I don't think it is a huge problem, but we will keep an eye on it.

The rest of Christmas weekend looks cool and quiet, but the pattern remains loaded with potential next week. The first system of interest will roll through Tuesday into Wednesday next week....

Here is a nice shot this morning from Beech Mountain.

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Christmas week is here....

>> Monday, December 21, 2009

The weather will be cool and quiet for the next few days before our next system rolls in Christmas Eve. Some cold air damming will be in place as the system arrives, and there is some chance of a brief period of freezing rain later Thursday into Thursday night...mainly in the northwest Piedmont. However, due to the overall pattern, it looks like the wedge will get scoured out, so at this point, I don't think any major wnitry precip is in the offing around here. But it is early, and we will watch it.

The rain could linger through much of Christmas day, and then the rest of the weekend looks generally chilly and quiet.

The pattern looks loaded with potential through the end of December into early January. In today's video, I take a look at how my forecast verified for the previous winter storm, look at the details of this week, and show you my thoughts as we head into the new year....

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Saturday morning....

>> Saturday, December 19, 2009

Here is a really nice shot this morning from up in Haywood county....


I really appreciate all of you checking in here with me. I sincerely thank all of you for all of the kind words over the past couple of weeks. I am glad folks out there find some enjoyment from my blog and videos. I enjoy doing them, and I will continue to churn them out!

Storm is pulling away from our region today and is really dumping the snow now off to our north. This was a widespread, disruptive winter storm.

Here in NC, looks like many folks in the mountains got over a foot, and the original forecast for the Triad I put out on the air Thursday morning of 5-10" looks like it did pretty well.

In the Charlotte region, Iredell and Cleveland counties got a good amount of wintry precip, Gaston county wound up with hours of freezing rain, and Charlotte itself and points eastward didn't get much, aside from some sleet mixing in from time to time. All in all, the heavier precip from the system exited the southern Piedmont before temperatures aloft cooled enough for any significant snow.

This is not a function of cold air chasing the precip. This is a case of the track of the 850mb low winding up being a bit too far north to give the southern Piedmont any significant snow. The farther north that low aloft tracked, the warmer the temps were about 5000 feet or so, so we wound up melting snow before it reached the ground. Temps here at the ground were plenty cold enough for snow.

At any rate, time to move on. As accumulation maps get put together, I will share them, probably in my video Monday morning.

Next system due in here around Christmas Eve, and it still has at least some wintry potential somewhere around the region. Will watch it over the weekend and talk much more about it when we get back into a normal routine Monday morning.

Be careful out there. Roads in the spots that saw snow are a mess this morning. And black ice will likely be a significant problem for Sunday and possibly Monday morning as well....again, mainly for the spots that have snow on the ground.

Enjoy your weekend....

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Friday evening....

>> Friday, December 18, 2009

Well, the snow is really piling up in much of the Triad area. This will indeed big a very significant for much of the Triad region.

In the Charlotte region, a mixture of sleet and freezing rain, with some snow mixed in, has been prevalent across Gaston, Cleveland, southern Iredell, and northern Meck counties. In northern Cleveland county and northern Iredell county, the snow is really piling up.

For the rest of the evening, a band of heavier precip will likely develop in a general west-east fashion somewhere across western NC and possibly extreme northern SC. Assuming this band does develop, that is when the Charlotte areas portion of I-85 would have the best chance of seeing some snow. But I have to tell you....confidence is low from where I sit.

To see snow, the southern Piedmont will have to have this persistent warm layer of air aloft shift southward. Most modeling has indicated that will happen this evening, and I am pretty sure it will. However, the band of precip must develop as expected as well.

As expected, this system has produced a very tight gradient between significant snow and not much snow. Again, lots of snow is on the ground as I type in northern Cleveland county and northern Iredell county.

Let's see how the rest of this system plays out.

Remember, it is not even winter yet. I think this is just one of multiple wintry weather chances the region will see.

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Mid-morning thoughts....

All right, I have cut a video, but it is having trouble rendering here on the home computer. Hopefully it will work.

In the meantime, here is the rough accumulation map I drew up. There is big bust potential carved into this system both ways. This is a system where a lot of the precip type and accumulations will depend on precipitation rates, which is directly related to dynamics. So, literally, big differences will likely occur from neighborhood to neighborhood. This map is just a rough estimate....there will be higher and lower amounts in each area outlined.

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Friday morning....

I am out of the office this morning, but I am pouring over all of the data this morning and will have some updated thoughts for you in a bit. Triad area....looks big. Charlotte is again right on the fence.....6z GFS soundings are a touch warm, but the 6z NAM sounding were surprisingly cold.

More in a bit....

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All right.....

>> Thursday, December 17, 2009

0z NAM is in house, and the 0z GFS is rolling as I type. Time for some accumulation ideas.

For the Triad, this looks big. The one concern that I still have for this area, and I outlined this on my video this morning, is that it still looks like we could lose moisture overnight Friday night in the snow growth region. If that occurs, then the precip would become primarily sleet, which would cut down on total accumulation amounts.

However, with that said, this sure has the makings in the Triad and foothills of a big winter storm. For the Triad itself, I am going to stick with my 5-10" outlook that I used on the air this morning. However, I think many spots will likely end up in the upper end of that range. I feel pretty confident that there will be some parts of the Triad and northern foothills region that see over a foot of accumulation. Some sleet could become involved, and again, the longer any period of sleet lasts, the lower the total accumulation will be. But this looks like a significant winter storm for the Triad viewing area.

The outlook for the Charlotte region remains considerably more difficult. I have to say...I still have little confidence in exactly how this plays out. It looks like as the precip initially moves in, there could be a brief period of rain, but then many folks will likely see snow for a while. Then as temperatures aloft warm, it gets even trickier, and anything from sleet to some snow or rain (even freezing rain, as temps could be close to or below freezing) could fall. The precip will then likely wind down as another period of snow.

I will say from just east of Charlotte and points east through Union, Anson, and Richmond counties, total snow and sleet accumulations on the order of a slushy dusting to possibly 2". For portions of Gaston, Cleveland, Lincoln, and Iredell counties (especially the northern part), total snow and sleet accumulations of 2-5", but especially as you head into Cleveland county, amounts could certainly be higher than that. I would group the western Upstate of SC in the same category as these areas just west of Charlotte.

Now, let me say this. There will be tremendous dynamics involved with this system, and there is a strong chance that a healthy deformation band will set up and move through portions of the region. Snowfall rates will likely be impressive in this band, and that will almost certainly provide some higher accumulations.

This (the Charlotte region forecast) is about as tough as it gets in terms of accumulation forecasts. Like I said, confidence is low here. Many, many Piedmont locations will likely see temps at about 5000' within roughly a degree of freezing, one way or another. With that being the case, any heavier areas of precip that moves through could kick over to snow, and for many spots around the Charlotte area, it looks like an extended period of time where you could change precip types time and time again. On the other hand, if your back yard avoids some of the heavier precip rates, you could wind up with virtually no accumulation while it is a different story only a few miles away.

**Just got a good look at the 0z GFS....looks colder for the southern Piedmont and Upstate with the model finally picking up on excellent cold air damming. Will see if this trend hold in the morning.**

There is how it looks now. I will take a fresh look at things in the morning and make any necessary adjustments.

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Quick hit....

Have had a ton of things to do around the house this afternoon, but I have been popping in to the computer often to check things. I have no real changes to my thoughts. Seems the GSP NWS is playing things conservatively around the I-85 corridor in their area. That is fine....you don't want to put a big number out there and then have to back away from it.

I will delve into this later this evening and hopefully put out specific accumulation ideas. For the Triad, this still looks like a major winter storm. It is trickier for Charlotte and GSP.

For those following the models, I think the 12z NAM did not handle the layer about 5000' (850mb) very well, and that made the whole atmospheric profile likely too warm. The latest NAM model has come in much colder and closer to what I think could happen.

Again, more ideas this evening....check back!

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Major winter storm in the works.....

Latest modeling trends continue to indicate the potential for a significant winter storm around the Carolinas tomorrow into Saturday morning.

Still some questions to work out dealing with specifics, especially moisture up in the 'snow growth' region Friday night, but all in all, this looks like a pretty big deal along and north and west of I-85.

At this point, I expect precip to move in tomorrow morning around Charlotte and at the latest by early afternoon for the Triad and Triangle. Initially, a lot of the precip will be snow. However, some warmer air aloft will work in by tomorrow night, and some spots will see a mix of sleet and snow....and possible freezing rain.

I am not yet confident enough for specific amounts....I like to make a call and stick with it unless forced to change. However, I will say again.....along and to the north and west of I-85, this looks like a big-ticket event. Significant accumulations of snow and sleet look likely.


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Quick evening thoughts....

>> Wednesday, December 16, 2009

The upcoming potential winter storm is a delicate interaction with northern and southern stream energy combined with cold air damming. If any one facet to that goes awry, so does the potential for a big winter storm.

With that disclaimer said, I see absolutely nothing this evening to sway me from thinking this has the chance to be a big winter storm for the western Carolinas, especially from I-85 north and west. In fact, if the 18z NAM and GFS are correct, this is a big-time winter storm for many places.

We are within 48 hours of the event, so time is running low for wild model swings. However, there will likely be some trending one way or another as we head through Thursday. There is still the chance this could deepen more than currently indicated, in which case the track of the low and snow shield might be father westward than currently indicated. It could also trend the other way though, meaning the snow is farther eastward, but with lower amounts.

But again, all modeling trends today have been toward this being a significant event.

In many spots along I-85, this could begin as a period of snow, then feature a wintry mix before ending as all snow again. But, those dividing lines all entirely depend on the exact track of the low.

I will have lots of information bright and early in the morning. A fresh video will be posted hopefully by 6am.

Have a good night....

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More model guidance favoring a winter storm....

The latest model guidance coming in has continued the overnight trend of ramping up the prospects of a significant bout with wintry weather in portions of the Carolinas. Please refer to the video below....that was before a lot of the latest guidance was in, but it still has value in putting some graphics with what we are talking about.

It is still just a tad too early for any real specifics, but odds are increasing that somebody in the western Carolinas, and possible central NC, will have significant wintry weather Friday into Saturday.

All forms of wintry precip are possible, but this is taking the shape of a classic Gulf of Mexico "Miller A" winter storm. Often times this means there will be areas that see heavy snow, then as you travel eastward, there is a transition zone where mixing of precip types occurs, and then eventually far enough eastward, it is all rain.

Bottom line is people need to pay attention to this one, especially along and north and west of I-85. As always, we are right on the line with this one.

I will try to post some more thoughts later today, and I of course will have full load of information in tomorrow morning's video and blog post.

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Cold air here....weekend wintry weather potential...

Another push of colder, dry air has arrived, and we will be looking at a lot of upper 40s to lower 50s for highs today and tomorrow. We will see sunshine, although it will be filtered by high clouds at times.

All eyes are on our next storm system, which will begin spreading precip into the region Friday and could extend through much of Saturday.

A cold, dry airmass will be in place initially, so some wintry precip is possible as the precip moves in, especially in the cold air damming regions of the western Carolinas. Then, as upper level energy gets involved, many spots could see the precip flip to snow before ending.

All of this is still very much up in the air. Some modeling keeps the best precip confined to the eastern Carolinas. However, I do think odds are that sombody across our region will see some wintry precip Friday into Saturday.....I will keep working on the forecast.

See the video today....lots of graphics to go along with this....

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Cold air coming....weekend storm system potential...

>> Tuesday, December 15, 2009

We are squeezing in a mild day today with highs up toward the lower 60s in many Piedmont locations. However, another big push of arctic air is invading the US, and that colder air will settle in here tonight.

Highs tomorrow and Thursday will only be in the upper 40s to lower 50s with lows dipping down toward the upper 20s. Look for lots of sunshine tomorrow and Thursday as well.

Things then get interesting as we head into the weekend. An area of low pressure will ride from the Gulf of Mexico to off of the Carolina coast. The big question mark is whether or not that low will get an influx of energy from the northern stream. Most modeling today is indicating that potential. If that is the case, somebody in the Southeast stands a good chance of seeing some wintry precip, likely snow, over the weekend.

This is still in the question mark category, but odds seem to be increasing that the interior Carolinas could see at least some snow over the weekend. However, if the low doesn't phase with the northern stream, any wintry precip opportunities are quite limited. So we shall see. Stay tuned....

Obviously, tons of good stuff in today's video....give it a look!

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Briefly milder, but plenty of cold coming....

>> Monday, December 14, 2009

Dense fog out there this morning. We will squeeze in a couple of milder day today and tomorrow before our next plunge of arctic air arrives for Wednesday.

Much of the rest of the month looks cold, and possibly very cold at times. And I still think this pattern is loaded with potential storminess, beginning this weekend. Take a look....

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Brief wintry mix possible

>> Saturday, December 12, 2009

A cold, dry airmass remain in place around the region today. Clouds will continue to thicken today, and highs will struggle to make it toward the 40 degree mark.

Precip will begin to spread in late this afternoon, and for the I-85 corridor, I anticipate a period of sleet and rain before kicking over to all rain. As the rain settles in, temps in many spots will drop to around the freezing mark before slowly warming overnight. However, I don't think the I-85 corridor will see any overly significant icing. Once you travel into the foothills, the potential for icing is much higher.

It is a close call, and we will have to watch temperature and radar trends carefully as we head into this evening.

Rain will exit tomorrow morning, but some drizzle will linger with highs in the low to mid 40s.

Monday will be much milder and dry, and then rain arrives again Tuesday.

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In the grips of an arctic airmass....period of freezing rain possible Saturday evening/ night

>> Friday, December 11, 2009

Temps plunged into the 20s this morning, and not only is the air cold, it is extremely dry. Dewpoint temps are in the single digits and could very well dip below zero at times today. That is dry!

Only low to mid 40s today, low to mid 20s for lows tonight, and then we watch for precip to approach late tomorrow and tomorrow night.

Still lots of question marks, but I still think the I-85 corridor could see at least a brief period of freezing rain tomorrow evening into tomorrow night. I don't anticipate a major event, but a glazing of trees and power lines and other elevated surfaces is possible in some spots.

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Arctic air arriving.....weekend still interesting.

>> Thursday, December 10, 2009

A blast of true arctic air is settling into much of the eastern US, including the Carolinas. This is a very dry and cold airmass, and that could lead to some wintry weather this weekend.

Lots of good stuff in today's video....give it a watch!

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Active pattern....

>> Wednesday, December 09, 2009

A dynamic storm system is impacting a lot of folks across the eastern US. Our day around here began with most temps in the 30s, heavy rain, thunder, and lightning.

Winds will be a problem today with gusts exceeding 40 and 50mph at times. Some trees and power poles will likely come down due to saturated soils.

Much colder air arrives tonight, and then we are still closely watching the upcoming weekend for a potential wintry mix.

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Rain moving in.....watching Saturday....

>> Tuesday, December 08, 2009

A powerful storm system is rolling through the nation today and tomorrow. For our area, we will see rain arrive this afternoon and end tomorrow morning. The heaviest rain will occur tonight, and some rumbles of thunder could occur late tonight or tomorrow morning.

Much colder air will plunge in here by Thursday, and that will set the stage for a potential winter weather event Saturday. See the video for details....

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Checking in....

>> Monday, December 07, 2009

I am off today, thus no video for today.

Last night was my oldest daughter's kids choir Christmas musical. They did a fantastic job, and we had a great time.

All in all, we are closing in on Christmas....and it is approaching at a quicker pace than I think a lot of folks are ready for. I love this time of year, and a relish every moment of it. As a kid, it seemed like the time between Thanksgiving and Christmas equaled years. However, now as an adult, with kids of my own, it seems there are not enough days during the Christmas season to get all of the things done you would like to get done. So we take the approach of trimming down our plans to only the things we really want to do and really focus on enjoying the season with one another.

In terms of the weather, we have a big storm system that will roll through mid-week that will bring us rain. Behind that system, true arctic air will move in by Thursday. This is the real deal in terms of arctic air. The models, as you might expect, are not in complete agreement, but it sure looks like we have a good chance of precip overrunning that dome of cold, dry air around Saturday. There is certainly some wintry weather potential in the cards....how big the threat is remain a question mark, but it has my interesting piqued.

I will be back in the office tomorrow, and I will have a new edition of the video posted by 6am.

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Storm system Saturday, cold weekend overall...

>> Friday, December 04, 2009

The main thrust of today's video is our storm system tonight and tomorrow, but I will also talk about next week and the weather pattern as we head through mid-December.



Clouds are increasing around the region today as our next storm system is taking shape in the northern Gulf. Snow is flying deep down into Texas today, and Houston will likely wind up with 3 or more inches!

That accumulating snow will spread up through parts of Louisiana, central and south Mississippi into Alabama tonight and into northwest Georgia.

For our area, I expect light rain to move in late tonight, and we will see a chilly rain for much of tomorrow morning. By midday, the window of opportunity is open for some snow to mix in with the rain, and some spots will likely see the precip end as a period of mainly snow.

For our viewing area, this will likely be more of a novelty than anything else for those that do see some snow. I don't anticipate travel problems in our viewing area, but I do think a slushy inch or two of snow could accumulate on some grassy areas and car tops.

Lows will plummet into the 20s Sunday morning, and despite sunshine, highs will only make it into the 40s Sunday.

A big rain-making system will roll through here Tuesday night and Wednesday next week.

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Watching Saturday...

>> Thursday, December 03, 2009

All eyes are on our storm system for Saturday, which has the potential to produce some snow across the western Carolinas.

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Big system rolling through today....Saturday system still on the board....

>> Wednesday, December 02, 2009

A powerhouse storm system is rolling through the region today and tonight. Flooding is a concern, as is severe weather.

Another system will likely roll through Saturday, and some wet snow cannot be ruled out. And it still looks quite cold later this weekend into early next week....lots in today's video!

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Interesting and active weather....

>> Tuesday, December 01, 2009

The weather is quiet today, but that won't last long. A big-time storm system will roll through the eastern US tomorrow and tomorrow night and bring the Carolinas heavy rain and some severe weather potential.

Then we turn our eyes to Saturday. Most modeling has latched onto a Saturday storm system. Snow chances somewhere around the region? Full discussion in the video....

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Active week ahead....

>> Monday, November 30, 2009

Lots happening this week...some rain today. Then we see a powerhouse storm system roll through Wednesday and Wednesday night. Heavy rain and severe weather are concerns with that one. Then, it turns sharply colder to end the week.

I also look at the overall December pattern in today's video....

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Nice weather through the weekend....

>> Friday, November 27, 2009

Lots of sunshine for us through the holiday weekend. However, the pattern gets very unsettled beginning next week, and December still looks very interesting. Give today's video a look....

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Happy Thanksgiving!

>> Thursday, November 26, 2009

Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours!

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Quiet weather for Thanksgiving....

>> Wednesday, November 25, 2009

In today's edition of the video, I look at travel weather across the country today, plus the Thanksgiving weekend forecast.

A strong storm system will move through early next week, and I still anticipate a colder and stormy pattern as we go through the first couple of weeks of December. See the video for details....

If you don't check back in again before tomorrow, have a wonderful Thanksgiving! No new video tomorrow, but I plan to have a new one up early Friday morning.

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Relatively quiet weather...

>> Tuesday, November 24, 2009

The weather will be pretty quiet around the Piedmont for the next few days, including Thanksgiving day. However, we turn colder Friday into the rest of the holiday weekend.

Lots of uncertainty next week and beyond....see the video for details....

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Dreary start to the holiday week....

>> Monday, November 23, 2009

Lingering light rain and drizzle around the region today...and lots of clouds through Thnksgiving. We turn colder with sunshine returning Friday, and some snow is on tap for the mountains.

I also look at what still looks like an interesting time frame for the first couple of weeks of December.....

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'Half and half' weekend ahead....

>> Friday, November 20, 2009

After morning fog, great Friday weather is unfolding. Saturday's weather will be dry with increasing clouds, but Sunday still looks chilly and rainy.

In today's video, I look at our weekend, plus I take a detailed look at the holiday week next week as well as some thoughts on December and winter overall.



We will enjoy a lot of sunshine today with highs in the mid 60s. However, we remain in an active storm track, and we have a 'half and half' weekend ahead.

Tomorrow will by far the the better of the two weekend days with highs in the lower 60s as clouds increase. Those clouds will be streaming out ahead of an area of low pressure in the northern Gulf of Mexico. I still expect to see rain move into the Carolinas by around daybreak Sunday, and the rain could be with us most of the day.

Not only will Sunday be rainy, but it will be chilly with highs in the mid to upper 40s.

Thanksgiving week and beyond....

The first part of the week looks docile with dry weather and mild temps Monday and Tuesday. It looks to turn colder right around Thanksgiving itself, and then it appears as if we will be heading into a much colder pattern overall as we enter December. It also appears the storm track will be active.

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Still dreary today....

>> Thursday, November 19, 2009

Clouds and drizzle will be slow to clear out today. However, nice weather for us coming up tomorrow and Saturday before we see a cold, rainy Sunday.

I believe next week, the week of Thanksgiving, is our transition week from this relatively warm pattern we have seen for much of November to a colder and stormy pattern as we enter December. See the video for details....

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Rain chances moving in....

>> Wednesday, November 18, 2009

Some rain chances with us later today into tomorrow....then another system for Sunday. Plus, I take a look a Thanksgiving week next week and how the pattern is shaping up for some colder air ahead....

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Cooler today....showers tomorrow....

>> Tuesday, November 17, 2009

More clouds today with some cooler temperatures....some showers arrive tomorrow into Thursday. Plus, we look at a coastal low late in the weekend and the possibility of some cold air after Thanksgiving.

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Another great day!

>> Monday, November 16, 2009

One more beautiful day before weather changes take place....

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Great weekend weather...

>> Friday, November 13, 2009

Our coastal low is slowly pulling out to sea, and that will allow for some fantastic weekend weather. A nice chance to dry out!

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More wind and rain today...

>> Thursday, November 12, 2009

Our coastal low continues to cause a lot of problems in a lot of places....see the video for details, plus our weekend and next week forecast.....

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Significant wind and rain event unfolding...

>> Wednesday, November 11, 2009

A detailed look at our current significant rain and wind event.

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Major rain event for the Southeast...

>> Tuesday, November 10, 2009

A significant rain event heading into the region.....



Tropical Storm Ida came ashore this morning near the Mississippi/Alabama state line. The remnants of Ida will combine with a separate storm system moving in from the west and provide the Southeast with a memorable rain event.

Here in the Piedmont, rain will increase in coverage and intensity today as a fetch of Atlantic moisture begins to bank up against the mountains. This, combined with the approaching remnants of Ida, will cause a healthy coverage of rain around the region tonight and tomorrow. The rain will be heavy at times tonight and tomorrow, and it will really begin to pile up.

The rain chances now look to continue at least in periodic fashion through Thursday and maybe even Friday morning. The heaviest rain by Thursday and Friday will be along the coast.

In terms of total amounts of rain over the next few days, I think a widespread 3"+ rainfall is looking likely, and some localized spots could pick up over 5" if all goes the way it looks right now. Flooding could become an issue in time as the rain amounts pile up.

Winds will become a problem tonight and especially tomorrow into Thursday. We could easily see some wind gusts in excess of 35 or 40mph at times, and with saturated soils, some trees could topple. We will continue to evaluate that threat.

It will be chilly tomorrow and Thursday as well with it being a struggle to get temps out of the upper 40s.

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All eyes on Ida....

>> Monday, November 09, 2009

Discussing Hurricane Ida and its impacts here in the Carolinas in today's video....



Hurricane Ida continues to head for a landfall on the Gulf coast late tonight. Out ahead of the system, clouds are spilling into our area today. It is will pleasant today, however, with highs close to 70.

The rain looks to really settle into our area tomorrow, with the heaviest rain likely occurring from late tomorrow through tomorrow night.

Forecasting the rain totals is very tricky. One of our computer models (the NAM) actually gives us no rain, while others (GFS and RPM) give us upwards of 4 inches. At this point, I certainly feel odds favor a soaking rain, and many Piedmont locations could pick up in excess of 2 inches, maybe more.

Flooding could be a problem in some spots if we do see the heavier rain amounts materialize.

It will become pretty breezy tomorrow night into Wednesday behind the system. However, once this system exits, I don't see another good rain chance for the rest of the week or weekend.

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Sunday morning Ida thoughts....

>> Sunday, November 08, 2009

Ida is looking pretty healthy this morning and is near Category 2 hurricane strength as I am typing this. I expect strengthening to continue today. Some slow weakening will then likely occur as Ida get over cooler waters in the northern Gulf of Mexico and the system begins to feel the effect of more hostile upper level winds.

I think there is a good chance Ida comes ashore somewhere between southeastern Louisiana and the extreme western Florida panhandle.

It gets interesting after that up the I-85 corridor from Georgia through the Carolinas. It sure looks like this area will have the potential for heavy rains as Ida interacts with a storm system approaching from the west. It is too soon for the details to be clear, but the potential is there for several inches of rain along the I-85 corridor.

A lot of modeling then bombs out what was once Ida as an extra-tropical system just off of the Outer Banks. This would provide gales for portions of the eastern Seaboard, and could give the interior Carolinas a very chilly, showery day behind the main system.

Interesting system.......I will have a new edition of the video and lots more information posted early Monday morning.....

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Excellent weekend weather....

>> Friday, November 06, 2009

More discussion about Ida's future in today's video, which has some possible influences on the Carolinas. I also look at our weather overall for the next couple of weeks, including some fantastic weekend weather.

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Ida in the tropics...Fantastic weather here...

>> Thursday, November 05, 2009

I take a detailed look at Ida this morning, plus what lies ahead in the weather for the Carolinas.



We will see plentiful sunshine today and right on through the weekend as well. Highs today will be in the mid 60s for most, and it will be a bit breezy this afternoon. Tomorrow and Saturday will feature low to mid 60s, then lower 70s Sunday.

Nights will remain chilly with lows in the 30s through the weekend. It looks cold enough for at least some frost tonight and again tomorrow night.

Our next chance of rain will come Tuesday into Wednesday next week as a cold front picks up whatever becomes of Ida and pulls moisture up our way.

Speaking of Ida, the system became a hurricane this morning and is making landfall in Central America today. The system will likely get out over the very warm western Caribbean Sea waters by this weekend, and there is a decent chance this could re-strengthen into a formidable tropical system.

Whatever becomes of Ida will likely eventually make landfall on the Gulf coast next week, but the system would likely weaken before that eventual landfall due to cooler Gulf of Mexico water temps.

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Terrific November Weather...

>> Wednesday, November 04, 2009

Excellent November weather continues through the weekend. I also look at possible tropical issues in the Caribbean and the possible effects on the Southeast.

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Quiet weather....

>> Tuesday, November 03, 2009

Tranquil and cool weather this week....I also look down the road for the next couple of weeks in today's video....

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Tricky weekend forecast....but a treat of a forecast next week....

>> Friday, October 30, 2009

Sorry for the horrible play on words above... In today's video, I take a look at the monster storm system still impacting a lot of folks today. I also discuss how it will impact our weather this weekend, and some nice Autumn weather on tap next week.

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Nice Thursday....

>> Thursday, October 29, 2009

A powerhouse storm system is impacting the nation's midsection today. I take a look at that in today's video, plus its impacts in the Carolinas.

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Sunshine makes its return today...

>> Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Sunshine returns today, and the weather remains quiet through Friday. However, some showers are likely at some points this weekend.

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Soaking rains heading in.....

>> Tuesday, October 27, 2009

In today's video, I look at the rain event today and tonight and then outline the forecast into early next week.



Back in the saddle this morning after some time off last week and through the weekend. This was for our annual trip to Mississippi State for our game with Florida. We had a great time, and the weather was absolutely perfect for the game!

Around here, rain will settle into the region today as a big storm system moves our way. The rain will become steady this afternoon into tonight, and some spots will likely pick up at least an inch of rain...maybe two inches in spots. Localized flash flooding could be an issue. Highs today will struggle to make the 60 degree mark with lows tonight in the 50s.

The rain will end by daybreak tomorrow, and sunshine should return tomorrow afternoon. As we see the sun return, highs will warm into the low to mid 70s.

We should remain dry Thursday and Friday, but our next cold front will swing through Saturday. Showers will likely push through the region at that time, but at this point, it looks like we should be dry in time for the trick-or-treaters Saturday evening.

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Terrific weather!

>> Tuesday, October 20, 2009

After a frost start to the day today, we are enjoying fantastic weather through Thursday. But, showers and possibly some storms will roll through later Friday into Saturday.

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Frosty start to the week....

>> Monday, October 19, 2009

Frosts and freezes around the region this morning, and another cold on on tap tonight. However, overall some great weather on the way through Thursday. See the video for details...

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Mountain snow...

>> Sunday, October 18, 2009

Couple of neat shots from the High Country this morning....


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Frost likely tonight....

It was a chilly start to our Sunday with lows this morning in the upper 30s to lower 40s. We will see sunshine today mixed with some clouds at times with highs mainly in the mid 50s. It will also be a little blustery at times.

The winds will relax this evening and the sky will be clear overnight. That will set the stage for a cold night...cold enough in fact for at least some scattered frost. Most lows should settle into the mid 30s tomorrow morning. So, you need to protect your plants with the frost potential in the offing.

We will begin a warm-up tomorrow with a sunny sky and highs in the low to mid 60s. 70s return by Tuesday, and we will have extremely nice weather through Thursday with lots of sunshine.

Our next storm system will roll in Friday and bring the chance of showers and maybe a few storms.

Here is a neat-looking shot from our friends up at Grandfather Mountain yesterday. Fall foliage and snow mixed together....

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Chilly, occasionally rainy weather...

>> Wednesday, October 14, 2009

Our chilly and damp weather has arrived. In today's video, I also take a look at the upcoming week's forecast, the possibility of some mountain snow this weekend, and an update on the fall foliage.

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Nice today, but . . .

>> Tuesday, October 13, 2009

A nice day is on tap today after we lose some morning fog...however, very chilly rainy conditions are on the way beginning tomorrow. In fact, many Piedmont highs tomorrow through Friday will be at or below average....for January!

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Cool, rainy conditions today....

>> Monday, October 12, 2009

Lots of winter-like weather coming this week...see the video for details....



Clouds are with us this morning, but rain will settle into the region later today. It will be a cool day as well with highs only in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Today's storm system is the first of three to impact the region this week. The second one will arrive Wednesday. However, before it arrives, we get to enjoy a nice day tomorrow with highs in the 70s under a partly cloudy sky.

Wednesday looks rainy and very chilly. Temperatures might wind up being in the 40s all day Wednesday in many Piedmont locations!

We will be in between systems again Thursday, but then another chilly, rainy day looks likely Friday. Behind that system, a big-time surge of cold air will arrive for the weekend, and we could see some frosts way down into the Deep South and the Southeast by Monday morning.

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Beautiful today...

>> Thursday, October 08, 2009

In today's video, we look at some excellent weather today, some rain over the weekend, and some colder air next week. Also a quick discussion about the current fall foliage and the tropics.

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Sunshine returns this afternoon....

>> Wednesday, October 07, 2009

In today's video, I talk about a return to more pleasant weather to end the work week, some cold air next week, and Henri in the tropics.



A cold front is sliding through the region today, while we have clouds and a few isolated showers racing through this morning, sunshine will return this afternoon. It will be a breezy day with wind gusts to 25 or 30mph possible, and highs will warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Tonight will be clear and chilly with lots in the mid to upper 40s. A fantastic October day will then unfold tomorrow with lots of sun and highs in the mid 70s.

Some clouds will begin to arrive later Friday, but it will be warm with lower 80s for highs.

Our next front will bring the chance of some showers over the weekend, and I still anticipate a healthy shot of cold air by around Tuesday next week. It is a touch too early for specifics with temps, but I think it is POSSIBLE that some Piedmont locations could see their first frost of the season by around next Wednesday morning. We will see....

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Dreary today....nicer weather ahead....

>> Tuesday, October 06, 2009

In today's video, I look at one more dreary day today followed by a nice finish to the work week. I also take a look at the possibility of the coldest air so far this season moving in next week.



Here is a nice shot from my friends up at Grandfather Mountain taken yesterday. This shot is from Price Lake on the Blue Ridge Parkway.

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Rainy start to Monday...cool and drizzly

>> Monday, October 05, 2009

Taking a look at the rainy start to the work week, some temperature swings ahead, and maybe very chilly conditions early next week.

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Clouds today....nice weekend ahead...

>> Friday, October 02, 2009

In today's video, I take a look at our cold front moving through tonight, the weekend weather, and discuss next week's possibilities...

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Another great day!

>> Thursday, October 01, 2009

In today's video, I take a look at the weekend weather, some flooding potential around the South next week, and maybe a cold shot to end next week.

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Another terrific day...

>> Wednesday, September 30, 2009

In today's video, I look at our current Autumn airmass, some rain chances ahead, and what might unfold next week.

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Chilly Grandfather....

>> Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Check out these observations from Grandfather Mountain today. Thanks to my buddy Bill Harrell for sending this along...

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Fantastic weather!

In today's video, I take a look back at the wind-producing storms from yesterday and discuss our terrific forecast.

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Breezy today....chilly airmass set to arrive

>> Monday, September 28, 2009

In today's video, I take a look at a nice Autumn airmass that will be with us this week...



Back in the saddle this morning after a great week off last week. We did some traveling around to several places we had never seen, including Colonial Williamsburg. If you have even a minor interest in history or the beginnings of our country, I strongly suggest you check it out. Truly a neat experience. We had a great time.

A cold front will swing through the region today, and as that occurs, we will have breezy conditions. Winds could gust over 25 or 30mph out of the west-southwest. There is also a limited chance of a couple of showers this afternoon as the front pulls through, but any showers will be few and far between. Highs today will be in the lower 80s.

Lows tonight will settle into the upper 40s to lower 50s under a clear sky, and then we are set up for some fantastic Autumn weather. Highs tomorrow will struggle to make it to 70 degrees with low to mid 70s for the rest of the work week. Most morning lows will be well down into the 40s, and each day will feature lots of sunshine. Enjoy!

Our next chance of seeing a couple of showers will be over the weekend.

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Enjoy the week....

>> Saturday, September 19, 2009

Have some off time this week....will see you Monday, September 28!

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Enjoy the week....

Have some off time this week....will see you Monday September 28!

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Rain chances remain...

>> Friday, September 18, 2009

In today's video, I take a look at the forecast for the upcoming weekend and next week.

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Cool and rainy...

>> Thursday, September 17, 2009

In today's video, I take a look at our rainy weather and how long it will last....

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Cooler and showery...

>> Wednesday, September 16, 2009

I take a look back at Hurricane Floyd and Hurricane Ivan as well as the cooler and at times rainy forecast around here...all in today's video. Take a look...

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One more warm and dry day...

>> Tuesday, September 15, 2009

In today's video, I take a look at what's ahead in our weather, which includes showers and cooler temperatures.



Again today, we will see some high level clouds streaming overhead. However, it will be another warm and dry day with highs in the mid 80s for most. Lots will drop into the 60s tonight.

It has been a wet stretch of weather for spots not far to our southwest, and beginning tomorrow, those shower chances begin to spread into our region. I will mention the chance of some mainly afternoon showers tomorrow with highs in the lower 80s. Better shower chances will be with us Thursday and Friday with highs backing down into the 70s.

The weekend is a tricky call, but at this point I feel I need to maintain the chance of some showers with highs in the 70s.

Next week, I see some good indications that a decent shot of cool air will invade the eastern US. See the video above for details.

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More warmth today....

>> Monday, September 14, 2009

**No new video today....schedule issue, so no time to produce a video.**

After some warm and dry weekend weather, we have more of the same on tap today and tomorrow. Look for sunshine through some high clouds today with highs in the mid 80s. Lows tonight will drop into the low to mid 60s, then we will see clouds gradually increasing tomorrow with highs again in the mid 80s.

A slow-moving storm system, which has been bringing rain and storms to the southern Plains and the Deep South over the weekend, will eventually spread rain chances into the Carolinas. I expect some good shower chances by later Wednesday, and Thursday could wind up being a rainy day. After that, I will maintain the chance of some showers on a daily basis right through the weekend.

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Excellent weather...

>> Friday, September 11, 2009

First of all, let's all take some time today to reflect on the tragic events 8 years ago. God bless the many that suffered such great loss.

In today's video, I take a look at our weekend weather, the weather next week, and the tropics...



We will enjoy a good bit of sunshine today with highs close to 80 degrees. Humidity values will be fairly low, so altogether, nice Friday weather. The weather will also be very nice for all of the area high school football games this evening...temps will slide through the 70s during the games.

Nice weekend weather is ahead with a partly cloudy sky both days and highs in the mid 80s.

Next week, we will see more clouds and eventually some shower chances roll in. The timing of it remains a question, but we will probably squeeze in at least Monday dry. Monday's highs will be in the 80s with high temps getting cooler as the week progresses.

Tropics...

A low pressure with lots of tropical characteristics, but one that is not a classified tropical system, moved inland in southern New England this morning. It has the look and feel of a land-falling tropical storm up that way.

Fred is still way out in the eastern Atlantic and is undergoing significant weakening. Fred will likely only be a remnant low by early next work week.

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Cooler today...

>> Thursday, September 10, 2009

In today's video, I take a look at a showery start to the day today in some area, the upcoming weekend, and Hurricane Fred.



Some showers were there to greet us in portions of the area this morning, and we will maintain at least some chance for a few showers through the day. It will be a cooler day as well with highs in the mid 70s for most.

The sky will clear out a bit tonight, and lows will drop into the mid to upper 50s.

Tomorrow, I anticipate a partly cloudy sky with highs in the lower 80s. Highs will warm into the mid 80s for Saturday and Sunday with dry conditions.

Some rain chances will try to work in with time next work week.

Gazing deeper into the crystal ball, I think odds are increasing that we will see a pretty good shot of colder air (colder by September standards) later this month....see the video above for more....

Tropics...

Hurricane Fred has begun the weakening process over in the eastern Atlantic, and that process should continue through the weekend. Fred does not look to threaten land.

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A few showers and storms...

>> Wednesday, September 09, 2009

Some rough weather to begin the day in portions of the area. In today's video, I will look at at, the upcoming weather, and powerful Hurricane Fred...

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Fairly quiet weather continues...

>> Tuesday, September 08, 2009

In today's edition of the video, I talk about the flooding rains along the Carolina coast, take us out day by day into next week, plus discuss Tropical Storm Fred.




Today's weather will feature a partly sunny sky with highs in the low to mid 80s. Rain continues to move up the Carolina coast in association with an area of low pressure, but that rain will largely stay to our east.

Tomorrow will be very similar to today with a partly sunny sky and highs in the lower side of the 80s. Both today and tomorrow, I can't completely rule out a shower, but the overall rain chance in any one spot is very small.

Highs Thursday and Friday look to be in the upper 70s to lower 80s, then we will see high temps warm into the mid 80s over the weekend.

Better chances for some showers and storms will try to roll in here by Monday and Tuesday.

Tropics...

The low pressure near the North Carolina coast has some tropical characteristics, but it is not a classified tropical system.

Way out in the eastern Atlantic, we have Tropical Storm Fred. Fred looks like a 'fish' storm...likely re-curving way out in the eastern Atlantic.

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A pretty quiet Labor Day in the Piedmont.....

>> Monday, September 07, 2009

**No video this morning due to holiday scheduling for the Labor Day holiday. I will have a new video posted for you early tomorrow morning. **

It is a nasty Labor Day in coastal parts of North Carolina today as an area of low pressure is bringing rainy, squally weather over in that part of the region. However, the weather is pretty quiet around here with a good bit of cloud cover and highs in the lower 80s. Most of the rain with that coastal low will stay east of the western and central Piedmont. However, I can't rule out a shower drifting in from the east at some point today or tonight.

We will continue to see a mix of sun and clouds each day through the work week with most highs in the lower 80s. Better chances of some scattered thunderstorms will roll in for the upcoming weekend with highs not to far from 80.

Tropics...

The area of low pressure near the Carolina coast will likely not become a classified tropical system. However, all of the way on the other side of the Atlantic is a strong tropical wave that will likely get classified at some point fairly soon.

My Mississippi State Bulldogs took care of Jackson State Saturday evening 45-7. The team had a somewhat sluggish first half, but things really started clicking during the second half.

Next up....a road game at Auburn Saturday night.

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Nice holiday weekend weather...

>> Friday, September 04, 2009

In today's video, I take a look at our Labor Day weekend weather plus the tropics....



We are continuing are string of nice weather days today with lots of sunshine and highs in the mid 80s for most. Humidity values will remain very low, so it will continue to feel pleasant.

For all of the area high school football games this evening, the weather will be great with temps dropping through the 70s throughout the evening. For all of the college football action tomorrow, no weather problems in the Carolinas.

For the holiday weekend, it looks like we will see dry conditions. Lots of sunshine will be with us tomorrow with a good bit of cloud cover arriving by Monday.

Later next week, we will see the return of shower chances.

Tropics...

Erika is no longer a classified tropical system. However, we will continue to watch it for signs of redevelopment.

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More excellent weather today...

>> Thursday, September 03, 2009

In today's video, I discuss our continuing nice weather, what is ahead for the holiday weekend into next week, and take a detailed look at the tropics.

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Beautiful weather....watching Erika

>> Wednesday, September 02, 2009

Fantastic weather continues...I discuss that, our holiday weekend weather, plus a lot of Erika talk in the video today....



Everyone was well down into the 50s this morning, and we have another great day on tap today. If you liked the weather yesterday, you will like today as well with lots of sun, low humidity, and highs in the upper 70s. A few more clouds will be with us tomorrow, but overall more of the same with upper 70s for highs.

For the upcoming holiday weekend, highs will warm into the low to mid 80s, but conditions still look dry. We will being back in a chance of some rain by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

Tropics...

Tropical Storm Erika is a struggling tropical storm this morning.....its battle is with dry air. However, Erika should continue to fight that battle and could become a hurricane at some point over the next several days. It looks like the system will be in or near the Bahamas later in the weekend. After that, all options are on the table, and all interests from Florida up the Eastern Seaboard need to watch it closely.

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Pleasant conditions....

>> Tuesday, September 01, 2009

Very nice weather here in the Carolinas as we begin September....lots to talk about in today's video including our nice weather, possible tropical trouble from Erika-to-be, and major hurricane Jimena set to hit the Baja.




After many folks saw some upper 50s for lows this morning, we will see some sunshine today with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Couple those temps with low levels of humidity, and we have a nice September day on our hands.

Lows will remain in the mid to upper 50s the next few nights with highs in the mid to upper 70s through Friday. Highs will warm into the lower side of the 80s this weekend.

Tropics: In the eastern Pacific, Hurricane Jimena is powerful Category 4 hurricane and will impact the Baja Peninsula later this week. This will be a big weather story in coming days.

We are closely watching a very healthy tropical disturbance east of the Lesser Antilles. This stands a very good chance of becoming Tropical Storm Erika fairly soon. It looks like Erika-to-be will wind up near or just east of the Bahamas by later this weekend. Stay tuned...

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Rainy and much cooler as we start the new work week...

>> Monday, August 31, 2009

In today's video, I talk about the rainy start to the work week, the much cooler weather for this week overall, more possible tropical trouble brewing.



It was a very wet start to the day across the Piedmont today with a swath of moderate to heavy rain swinging through. One of our Carolinas wedges has set itself up, and temperatures will likely hover in the 60s for much of the day. We will continue to have the chance of at least some light rain from time to time into this evening. Lows tonight will drop in the upper 50s.

I expect a pretty good amount of cloud cover tomorrow through Thursday, but not a whole lot of rain chances during that period. Temperatures look very pleasant with mid 70s for highs and upper 50s for lows.

Temps will warm up a bit toward the weekend, but nothing at all that looks above average.

Tropics: We are closely watching a tropical disturbance out in the Atlantic east of the Lesser Antilles. This will likely become a classified tropical system over the next 24 hours, and it could wind up east of the Bahamas by the weekend. Stay tuned...

In the eastern Pacific, Hurricane Jimena is a powerful Category 4 hurricane, and it will likely impact the Baja Peninsula as a significant hurricane later this week.

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Danny to swing east of the coast....much cooler weather on the way....

>> Friday, August 28, 2009

In today's video, I take a detailed look at the tropics....both Danny and our next potential system out in the Atlantic. Also, much cooler weather is on the way for the Carolinas....see the video.



Today's weather is much different than what we have been seeing lately. We will continue to see lots of clouds with the continued chance of showers and embedded storms today and tonight. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s today with upper 60s tonight.

For the weekend, we will continue to mention the chance of a few pop-up showers or storms, especially during the afternoon hours. Highs tomorrow look to be in the upper 80s with mid 80s Sunday.

Significantly cooler air will settle in here by Monday. This is Canadian-origin air, and it looks like we will have a cold air damming scenario play out Monday and Tuesday. That will likely mean much cooler conditions with some rain at times. On one or both days, highs might not make it to 70 degrees in spots!

Danny: Danny is really struggling this morning and is a weak tropical storm. It still looks like the center will pass just east of the Outer Banks late tonight. Some rainy, squally weather is certainly possible for the Outer Banks, but at this point, it looks like this will rank pretty low in significance on the list of tropical systems we have encountered.

We are watching another tropical wave way out in the Atlantic...that stands a good chance of becoming our next tropical system over the next couple of days.

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Eyes on Danny....

>> Thursday, August 27, 2009

Lots of Danny talk in today's video. I also look at the weekend weather and the potential for some Fall-like air next week....



We continue to track Tropical Storm Danny as it moves northwestward. Meanwhile, one more hot day today with highs in the lower 90s. However, things are set to change.

Moisture is pooling off to our southwest today, and as soon as tonight some shower chances arrive. Tomorrow we will see some showers and storms around the region with highs backing down into the low to mid 80s with lots of clouds.

A few storms are possible Saturday with better chances again on Sunday with the approach of a cold front.

Behind that front, I am still forecasting cooler, drier air to settle in for next work week. It still looks like some upper 50s for lows and some upper 70s for highs with a good deal of sun. However, not all modeling is in agreement with that scenario....but I am sticking to my guns as of now.

Danny: Danny's winds increased a bit overnight, however the system is still very disorganized in structure. As long as that remains the case, no explosive strengthening will take place. However, Danny could slowly strengthen to hurricane status over the next 36 hours.

The track guidance is pretty unanimous ins keeping the center of Danny just east of the Outer Banks. That could change, but the models are in pretty good agreement at this point.

If you are heading to the Outer Banks, some rainy, breezy, squally conditions are possible later tomorrow through Saturday morning. You need to keep up to date with the latest info on Danny as well. Surf and rip currents will also be increased.

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Danny is born.....

>> Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Lots of tropical talk in today's video....give it a look today. Also, a taste of Fall looks likely early next work week....



We will have some fairly hot weather today and tomorrow with lots of lower 90s for highs. Rain chances will likely remain confined to the coastal plain as well.

A cold front will drop in and bring a better chance of some showers and storms by later tomorrow night and especially Friday. And the chance of some showers and storms will be with us at times over the weekend.

A push of Autumn-like air will settle in here early next work week, and we could very well see some upper 70s for highs and 50s for lows by Tuesday and Wednesday! Up in the mountains, some 40s are possible for morning lows next week!

Tropics... Tropical Storm Danny has formed north of Hispaniola. Max winds are at 45mph as of the 11am advisory.

Danny looks to make a very close run with the North Carolina coast Friday night or Saturday morning. It is possible this could strengthen up to hurricane status if it gets it act together. It is not yet time to cancel any beach trips, but please keep advised with the latest on this system.

Remember, Tropical Update at :21 and :51 past every hour or News 14 Carolina.

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