Nice Friday...changes ahead...

>> Friday, February 13, 2009



Above is the latest edition of the Carolina Weather Video.

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Breezy again today...

>> Thursday, February 12, 2009

video

A little short on time today...please see the video....I discuss everything in there.

In short, very breezy today, and the wildfire danger is high. Please avoid outdoor burning. Highs in the 60s today and tomorrow.

Still looks like some light rain Saturday morning along with much chillier weather over the weekend.

A feature that seems to be gathering steam in the modeling is a system that swings through Sunday night. That one might wind up producing some snow somewhere in the state, but that is a small-scale feature, and one that will likely not be handled terribly well by the models.

The trend of the modeling for the mid-week system is not your friend if you are a winter weather lover in the Carolinas. Most modeling continues to indicate a warmer and farther north solution with each run, and that is lessening the chance of significant wintry weather around here. It could trend back the other way, but I kinda doubt it. A lot of time between now and then, but right now it looks like more rain Wednesday than anything else.

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Hold on to your hats!

>> Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Lot of problems getting the video uploaded today. Please click here to see today's video.

I intend the title both literally and figuratively. First, very windy conditions will be with us today and tomorrow. Secondly, the weather pattern we are heading in to is a wild one.

See the Carolina Weather Video above for lots of good information.

It is a warm and windy day today with highs in the lower 70s. Winds could gust over 40mph at times in the Piedmont, and I would not be surprised if a few trees came down.

While a shower is possible late this afternoon, I think be best window of opportunity for showers an a storm or two will be this evening. A strong to severe storm is possible with damaging winds being the main concerns.

It will remain breezy behind the system tomorrow with highs in the 60s and lots of sun.

We are indeed entering the active storm track as temps gradually trend colder. One system will bring us some cold rain showers Valentine's Day. And then there is the system next week.

Right now, the system is still on the table for mid-week. Most models continue to show an overall favorable synoptic setup for winter weather in the Carolinas....especially a 50-50 low, strong confluence over the NE US, and good cold air damming east of the mountains. However, we are still talking about a little more than a week from now, so lots can change.

It is still WAY too early for excitement or disappointment for snow fans, but to this point, my interest remains piqued. Stay tuned....

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Warmth continues...

>> Tuesday, February 10, 2009

video

Above is the Tuesday edition of the Carolina Weather Video. Lots o' good stuff in there today...

Our string of great weather day is continuing today with highs in the lower 70s across the Piedmont...and we will see lower 70s again tomorrow.

A cold front will swing through tomorrow evening. Some showers and storms could spread into the mountains tomorrow afternoon, but I think the rain chances hold off until tomorrow evening here in the Piedmont. A few storms could be on the strong side with damaging winds being the primary concern...we will watch that closely.

After that, we will trend back toward a colder and stormier weather pattern. The southern branch of the jet stream will be very active for at least the next week to 10 days, bringing us storm systems every few days. How far south those storm systems track will determine whether or not we have any wintry weather potential.

The first system will move through Valentine's Day....but I think all precip Saturday will be of the rain variety.

The next system will then likely move through around next Tuesday. Yesterday's 12z Euro and today's 0z and 6z GFS indicate wintry weather in the Carolinas with that one. The reason? Large scale features that keep the system on a southerly track.

This one bears watching. In edition to the possibility of a southern track, there looks to be pretty good potential for some cold air damming as the system arrives.

WAY too early to get excited over this. In fact, I did not mention any wintry precip on the air today...I am just giving you a look 'behind the curtain' so to speak...see some of the things I am weighing in the forecast ahead. If a trend develops in this system, it will probably be a northerly one. So, like I said, don't get excited yet snow lovers....LONG way to go and lots will probably change.

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Monday...

>> Monday, February 09, 2009

video

Above is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video....give it a watch.

Wow! What a weekend! Just fantastic stuff....

We will still be mild today, just not quite as warm as over the weekend. Highs today will be in the 60s, and we will have a pretty good amounts of mid and high level clouds at times.

A little drizzle will be possible later tonight, but the drizzle should erode away early in the day tomorrow, setting us up for some beautiful weather tomorrow afternoon with highs in the lower 70s.

Wednesday will again see some lower (and maybe mid) 70s for highs, but our next system swings through mainly Wednesday evening. Showers looks like a good bet, and I think a few thunderstorms might be involved. Actually, I can't rule out a few strong storms either...we will hone in on that closer to time.

I still think we are heading into a colder and stormier pattern for the second half of this month. For those wanting winter weather, I still think the pattern later in the month is loaded with potential. Now, it could wind up being a case there the Virginias see numerous snow storms while much of North Carolina sees mainly cold rain-producing systems...I can't pinpoint that this far out. But I just don't think winter is over by any means, regardless of the current mild weather. Lots of winter left on the calender, and lots of blocking showing up in the medium range. We will see how it plays out.

Now, like I mentioned above...I am NOT saying we will see a winter storm before the season is out. I am saying that the pattern we appear to be heading into is one that creates at least the potential for some late winter action...we will see.

In the mean time...enjoy the mild weather!

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