Cold and windy today.... mountain snow...

Snow is flying up in the mountains today, and it will be a decent little snow event in the favored northwest facing areas.

Winds are a big factor today...in the mountains, gusts will be over 70 or 80mph at times with piedmont and foothills gusts likely over 40 or even 50mph at times.

It's also cold....piedmont highs will be in the 40s today.

Quiet this weekend, then all eyes turn to next week.

There are still all kinds of question marks with a wide range of tracks possible for the main system Wednesday. I detail this in today's video.... give it a look....

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Sharp cold front headed in...

A dynamic storm system is cranking in the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys this morning, and we will have a good round of rain and embedded storms in our region this afternoon into this evening.

This system is producing heavy snows in parts of the Great Lakes and Midwest and severe weather in the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys this morning.

The best threat of severe weather in the Carolinas will be closer to the coast, but we will need to keep an eye out for some low-topped stronger storms anywhere across the region this afternoon and evening.

It'll be sharply colder tomorrow with foothill and piedmont highs only in the 40s and a stiff west wind gusting over 30mph at times.

Up in the mountains, some upslope snow will kick in tonight and extend into tomorrow. The favored areas will pick up multiple inches of snow in some instances, and winds could gust to 50mph+ in the mountains tomorrow.

Quiet and cool weather will unfold through the weekend.

Next week...

Still tons of question about our system next week. Please see the video for details...

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Lots to discuss....

Please see today's video.... A graphic is worth a thousand words, and I have a bunch of them in there!

Some quick hits...

- Beautiful today.... 60s for highs with full sun.

- Sharp cold front brings a round of showers and embedded storms later tomorrow and tomorrow evening. This is a low instability/ high shear environment, so the possibility of low-topped severe storms will need to be watched.

- Much colder Friday....piedmont highs in the 40s with a stiff northwest wind.

- Quiet and cool weekend.

- All sorts of uncertainty with the near-Christmas system. The 0z GFS came in with a wild solution, bombing out a low as it moved right overhead through the Carolinas. This is a big eastward jump from previous runs.

European was also different.

Bottom line is I have zero confidence in the timing or track of that low at the moment. Again, see the video for more....

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Sunshine back today and tomorrow....next system Thursday...

Some nice weather is on the way today and tomorrow with highs topping 60 in many places.

Our next system will bring a round of showers and storms later Thursday and Thursday night to the region. Following that system, a fairly chilly, but very quiet, weekend will unfold.

Our next system will then begin to take shape in the southern Plains by Christmas morning. This has the look of a Miller B system....in other words, one low could ride up near or west of the mountains while a secondary coastal low might try to form.

The key to this system is the blocking over the Canadian maritimes....how strong it is, and how long it stick around. The European and Canadian models are stronger with the block with the GFS. The stronger the block is, the more pronounced the cold air damming will be around the Carolinas, and therefore, the higher the potential would be for winter weather.

Way, way to early to know how this will unfold. Many in the region will wind up with rain, but in the favored CAD areas, something of a wintry variety can't be ruled out by the day after Christmas. The odds are higher from the Virginias northward.

Please see today's video for more...

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More showers/ storms this afternoon.... a look ahead....

Another round of showers, and maybe some storms, will rumble through this afternoon and evening. A few severe storms are possible, especially in South Carolina and Georgia. Isolated tornadoes and damaging winds will be the biggest threats.

Take a look at today's video.... I look at our next system Thursday, as well as a likely system just after Christmas.

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