>> Thursday, December 30, 2010
Here is today's edition of the video. In today's video, I take a look at a stormy finish to 2010 for the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valley, and where the pattern heads next week.
A little light freezing rain and snow is possible in the mountains this morning, but aside from that, the system pulling into the region today will only bring clouds. Highs today will range from 45-51 degrees for much of the Piedmont.
>> Wednesday, December 29, 2010
Here is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video. In it, I take a look at the December temps thus far, how our forecast is shaping up for the next week, and some January ideas...
Some updated info on the cold December, through Dec. 28. Here are the temp deviations from average thus far for the month.
>> Tuesday, December 28, 2010
Here is the compiled snow total map from the NWS. Notice every county in the state of North Carolina had at least some snow on the ground. That is a rare occurrence. The totals from the New England States are very impressive.....numerous spots over 25" and 30"!
>> Monday, December 27, 2010
Here is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video....
Lots of snow still on the ground around the region after our Christmas weekend snow event. I am very happy that so many folks that wanted snow got it. And I also think it is incredibly neat to get snow on Christmas weekend.
>> Sunday, December 26, 2010
I hope everybody had a great Christmas. Many folks around the region got the treat of a white Christmas, although around the Charlotte metro, it took until evening to get the snow in.
The big coastal low continues to rapidly strengthen this morning, and it will continue to lift slowly up the coast. The band of moderate to heavy snow on the backside of the low will continue to gradually lift east and northeast out of the Carolinas, but it is a slow process.
All totaled, the Charlotte metro looks to have 2-5" or maybe 6" in some spots. For the Triad, 4-8" looks to do the trick, although there are some localized variations. The Triangle area looks like 5-9" with even some higher totals possible in a couple of spots. The system will even end as snow for the Outer Banks. This might be one of those rare systems where every NC county at least sees snow.
It will be very cold and blustery today and tomorrow. Highs will struggle to make it above the freezing mark today and tomorrow, and lows tonight and tomorrow night will drop into the 15-25 degree range around the Piedmont.
A big warm-up is on tap later in the week though with highs by the New Year in the 60s.
>> Saturday, December 25, 2010
Posting this just after midnight on Christmas morning.....WAY past my bedtime! But I wanted to put out a few quick thoughts.
>> Friday, December 24, 2010
First of all, I thank all of you for stopping by, reading, and watching the videos. It is incredibly humbling, and I appreciate you deeply.
>> Thursday, December 23, 2010
Below is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video. Give it a look...
First off, I was a little surprised to see the modeling scatter so much with the 0z runs today. With the 12z and 18z runs yesterday, there seemed to be a lot of consolidating of the array of solutions. However, with the 0z runs, the models really diverged pretty widely in how each handled the interaction of our southern stream and northern stream disturbances. Even the European, which had been rock-solid consistent, differed somewhat from its previous runs.
This is the issue I have been laying out here on the blog for you all week. We are dealing with timing the interaction of two separate pieces of energy....one from the northern Plains....the other from the Pacific (now in Arizona this morning).
In terms of the modeling specifics, I don't know that any of the models really did a good job of capturing the strength of the AZ disturbance with the 0z cycle. Hopefully the AZ disturbance will be better sampled in the 12z cycle later today.
At the moment, I am completely discounting the NAM. It has essentially had 3 different looks its last 3 runs, so it is all over the place.
I am also largely discounting the 0z Canadian. It appears to weaken the AZ disturbance far too much as it enters the Plains states early tomorrow.
I have spent a ton of time comparing the most recent (0z) run of the Euro to its previous 12z run. There are really pretty similar overall. The one big difference is that the disturbance moving in from the north is a little less consolidated and strung out toward the Ohio Valley. The system still phases, but about 6-12 hours later than the previous runs. So, you still get a rapidly deepening low riding up the coast, but just later in the track than its previous runs. Therefore, the heaviest snow is all east of I-85.
As I have stated, the devil is in the details. If the northern branch feature is weaker or more stung out, this will not phase in time for a big snowstorm in the southeast.
Here is the general idea for this morning...
Snow still looks like a good bet around much of the region Christmas Day into Saturday night. I still like the chances of accumulating snow in a good number of spots. For the time being, I think the idea of the 12"+ snow dumps that had been indicated on some modeling seems even less likely now. That was always a long-shot. While it is still within the realm of possibility, odds seem to be favoring any potential for that shifting up toward New England if at all.
But, the general idea of some snow spreading into the region Christmas Day into Christmas night still seems good. At the moment, I envision a scenario where mainly light snow pulls in during the day Saturday, and then an area of moderate snow develops in from the southwest as the coastal low gets going. Where that moderate snow spread in will receive the highest snow totals.
Like there almost always is, there will be a strip of heavier snow totals, but pinpointing that location right now is impossible. Initial impression might be somewhere near or just east of I-85 to a little east of I-95, but again, that is VERY, VERY preliminary and certainly subject to change.
Like I said earlier, I think the 12z runs will begin to clear the picture a bit. Let's see what they hold....
>> Wednesday, December 22, 2010
Just a few quick words here. Most modeling continues to gradually step toward the European solution, which came in with another huge snowstorm with its most recent 12z run. So, the idea I continue to go with is a less extreme version of the Euro model.
Below is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video....give it a watch...
The GFS finally caved to the general track idea of the foreign modeling of our Christmas storm system. However, it is still much weaker overall with the system than the other modeling. See the video above and I will show you why I think it is likely incorrect.
The European modeling continues to steadfastly hold on to the idea of an historic snow storm across the Southeastern US Christmas Day and night, gradually moving up the eastern seaboard Sunday and Sunday night. At face value, places like Huntsville, Nashville, and Atlanta all see snow with this, and the amounts really begin to ramp up once you get into the Carolinas. GSP, CLT, and GSO do very well in terms of snow totals, and the amounts get mind-blowing as you head to Columbia up to RDU. Just like previous runs, the Euro even brings snow prior to the end of the system all of the way to the coast and Outer Banks.
The Canadian too is weaker with its 0z run. However, it too looks to weaken the southern stream system too much as it enters the Plains states.
The UKMET is fairly far south with the system as well.
I will say it is a caution flag to me that a lot of the other modeling is less extreme than the European.
So, what does all of this mean?
Again this morning, I continue to lean my forecast in the direction of the European model....just a less extreme version of it. The European model continues to show textbook examples of explosive phasing and the resultant bombing of the low pressure area. And I do think that is a possibility.
However, to me, that appears to be kind of the extreme end of the spectrum, while the 6z GFS is the extreme in the other direction.
My forecast will continue to reflect snow potential in much of the Carolinas beginning later Christmas Day into Christmas night....even much of Sunday if the Euro is correct.
It is still too early for accumulation estimates, but just know the potential is there for significant accumulations somewhere around the region.
Also, please keep in mind the cautions I put out yesterday are still in the forefront of my mind. This system depends entirely on the phasing of two pieces of energy....one from Canada and one from the Pacific. The degree to which these disturbances phase, and the speed with which they do so will determine the outcome of this system. These are details that it is impossible to have confidence in yet.
>> Tuesday, December 21, 2010
Below is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video. Give it a watch.
A few areas saw a bit of snow last night, and in a few places, it was enough to lightly dust the ground. This was with a weak disturbance that is not exiting the region. A few sprinkles are possible tonight and tomorrow, but no big deal.
>> Monday, December 20, 2010
Below is today's edition of the video....give it a look....
A couple of items before I get into what everybody wants to hear about....the Christmas storm possibilities.
A total lunar eclipse will occur during the overnight hours tonight.....greatest eclipse will be at 3:16am. Astronomically, North America is in about as good a position as we could be in to see the eclipse. In the Carolinas though, we will have some clouds rolling in, but hopefully enough breaks to allow it to be seen if you so choose.
This is Christmas week obviously, and the weather will remain pretty quiet for our region through Thursday. Most highs will be in the 40s with lows mainly in the 20s.
A weak system will move through tomorrow, but it will only being clouds to the Piedmont....maybe a little light rain in the mountains.
Lots of people already buzzing about the potential for a storm system Friday into Saturday. The system definitely has piqued my interest.
Here is the disclaimer. Here on the blog, I kind of pull back the curtain and just lay out a lot of the behind the scenes stuff. I like to discuss possibilities with you and let you know some of the things I am looking at.
The operational GFS is the farthest north of all of the modeling. Even the GFS's own ensembles are farther south than the operational run. Taken verbatim, the operational GFS shows a little light snow north of I-40 as the system arrives by Friday night, but then a mainly rain event in our region.
All of the others models I can get my hands on this morning show a farther south and stronger solution. If you were to give me a blank map and a pencil, I could not draw up a better setup for Southeast snow than what the 0z European model shows. It was a thing of beauty for snow fans. Its ensembles were largely in agreement, and the Euro not only brought snow Christmas Day to the Carolinas, but all of the way up I-95 into the Northeast.
The UKMET and Canadian all also indicate at least some snow being involved at some point in the system for much of the interior Carolinas.
Hear this....the system is 5 days away, and there are two main things to watch with this system.
1. The latitude it takes west to east across the US.
2. The phasing between two different streams.
When this phasing occurs, and how much phasing occurs it at all, will play a huge role in the track of this system. It is within the realm of possibility that this system winds up trending north with time. There is also the chance of very little phasing and a weak system sliding out to sea.
Way too early for any confidence, but it sure is fun to watch.....
>> Saturday, December 18, 2010
Had enough snow with sleet mixed in to dust the ground in much of the I-85 corridor in Cleveland, Gaston, and into Meck county and the surrounding areas. Radar doesn't look terribly promising for anything north and west of I-85 in the Triad, and frankly, the precip looks to be pretty short lived in the Triad viewing area where it does occur.
Good morning! Wanted to put up a quick post about what remains a pretty low-confidence forecast.
>> Friday, December 17, 2010
The 12z models have not shown any more amplification with the weekend system....in fact, some show less.
Here is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video. . .
Through about 9am or so, icy roads will remain a possibility, generally along and north of the I-40 corridor. This is from the re-freezing of water on the roads from yesterday's wintry precip.
Highs will top out in the 40s today with a partly sunny sky.
After the trend with the 12z models yesterday was toward a stronger, more amplified system, the trend with most of the 0z and 6z data was toward a weaker, slower-phasing system, and therefore, a more easterly track.
You can see the map below I am going with on the air this morning. As it stands now, I think the best opportunity in NC of seeing snow is roughly between I-85 and I-95....with the best chances being around the Triangle up into eastern VA.
Now this is still subject to change as we are still 24-36 hours out, but this is how I see it as of now. If the system were to phase more quickly, then places west of I-85 could get into the action. However, that has not been the trend on the modeling over the last 12 hours.
We stay on the chilly side of things next week. We will not be as cold overall as this week, but temps will remain below average.
A clipper will move through mid-week, and then another will arrive around Christmas. We will see what the precip chances are as we get into next week.
>> Thursday, December 16, 2010
The winter weather event continues to wind down around the region. Freezing rain was the biggest issue in NC, and roads became very treacherous, especially Hwy 64 and points north.
Temps will slowly climb above freezing this afternoon, so road conditions will gradually improve.
The latest NAM has inched the Sat/ Sat night system westward a bit. I will take a long look at that one in the products tomorrow.
Lots of live weather....time for a nap!
A wintry mix is occurring around the region this morning. I am live on the air for the Triad market....Matt Morano is handlign Charlotte, and Lee Ringer is in the Triangle. Our operation is in full swing this morning bringing you tons of live weather, traffic, closing information, and reports in the field.
The teeth of the system will move through between now and late morning, and this is when precip will be at its heaviest.
For the Charlotte area, a mix of sleet and freezing rain/ drizzle with be with us until around mid-morning. Most temps should then get above freezing, and the afternoon and evening will then feature the chance of some drizzle from time to time. A glazing of sleet and freezing rain will remain a possibility. Road conditions will be tricky, especially on the secondary roads and overpasses.
For the Triad, snow and sleet will continue to change to mainly freezing rain this morning. A glazing will continue to occur on most surfaces. This afternoon, temps will get above freezing and road conditions will readily improve.
>> Wednesday, December 15, 2010
I am focusing on our system tonight and tomorrow. The picture for the weekend potential system will get clearer once this current system passes and the responsible disturbance gets on the RAOB network.
First off....wow, another bitterly cold morning. 10s everywhere and even some single digits in a few Piedmont locations. It will stay cold today with Piedmont highs in the 30s.
Our next system will begin to arrive later tonight. Winter Weather Advisories are up from northern Mississippi and Alabama into the Ohio Valley. A Winter Storm Warning is up for eastern KY and NE TN. A Winter Storm Watch is up for much of VA down into the VA border counties of NC and up into the northwest mountains.
For the Carolinas, precip will spread into the I-85 corridor during the pre-dawn hours. This initial wave of precip will likely be some light snow and sleet for many. From south to north, and precip will kick over to a sleet and then freezing rain or rain scenario, depending on the surface temp in your back yard.
For the Charlotte region (and extreme northern SC), I can't rule out a brief dusting or a light, minor glazing early tomorrow. The precip just looks too limited for anything overly significant however. But, it is possible a few issues could drop up for the morning commute. Ground and road temps are cold, so it would only take a little freezing rain to create some issues.
For the Triad, there will likely be a period of snow and sleet that will gradually transition to some light freezing rain or rain. For the immediate I-40 corridor, I will go with a dusting to maybe 2" or snow and sleet with the possibility of a minor glazing before the precip ends.
More significant accumulations are likely up near the VA border and up into VA. For the VA border counties, I will go with 1"-3" with locally higher amounts....and again, a glazing possible on top of that.
**Hear this.....it is quite possible that the amounts will verify on the lower ends of those ranges given. Moisture is limited and the air is dry, so that will be an issue for precip to overcome.**
Here is the bottom line. This is not a huge event, but it could definitely play a role in the morning commute tomorrow, especially the farther north you go. So get up early, check the road and weather conditions, and of course, we will be like with updated information here on News 14 Carolina.
The trend in the modeling over the past couple of cycles has been toward a weaker, less amplified system. With that said, there is still the potential for some snow in parts of the region. I will continue to take a closer look at this one as we near the weekend.
>> Tuesday, December 14, 2010
Just a quick check-in. Seems most modeling is trying to shift that axis of heaviest precipitation Thursday AM to the areas along and north of I-40. That is not set in stone, but the trend for this system today has been for most of any potential issues to be confined to the northern half of NC. But, this is a fine line in terms of where this axis of precip spreads in, so I wouldn't write off any specific area just yet. Remember, it was just the 0z NAM today that brought a nice little event to much of the region. Just watching the trends today though....
For the weekend, I still think the potential for this one is very much alive. The GFS continues to indicate a significant system, but there are temp issues for snow fans in the southern Piedmont. The Canadian is weaker and farther east.
The latest Euro is very, very close to developing the system into a biggie. But it keeps the upper level energy a little too strung out, and therefore keeps the system as more of a weak wave of low pressure as opposed to a bomb going off. However, gut feeling on this one is that it trends into a more significant system somewhere in the region. Might wind up being the Virginias that see most of the snow if it winds up really bombing out. However, at this point, I think everybody is still in the game on that one, and all options (from the weak wave, farther east scenario to the strong, deepening low, farther west scenario) are still on the table.
Below is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video....give it a look.
This blast of arctic air is very impressive. Highs today will be at least 20 degrees below normal again across most of the region, and many Piedmont spots will again fail to reach freezing. In fact, the Triad region will likely not make it out of the 20s. All of this will full sunshine today.
Lows tonight will again be in the teens. So keep those faucets dripping and the outside pipes wrapped.
The NAM (one of the shorter-range models) continues to bounce around where the heaviest axis of precip will be with the next system late Wednesday night through Thursday. This lowers my confidence.
As it stands now, I will still mention a light wintry mix being possible across the Piedmont from very early Thursday morning until late morning or midday....any precip after that would try to fall in the form of light rain or drizzle in many places.
Will this be a huge deal? Probably not. But wherever that axis of heavier precip does impact, some accumulation is possible. Where is still the question.
The potential for a storm system around Saturday is still very much on the table. However, the models continue to show a high degree of variability in their handling of this system. The GFS is still the most impressive with it while the Euro is still a little out to sea and weaker.
If the GFS is correct, parts of the region could see a rain changing to snow scenario Saturday and Saturday night. But I am far from confident at this point.
>> Monday, December 13, 2010
Below is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video...
First of all, I want to thank my buddy Andy Wood for putting up some great content here on the blog while I was away. Interesting stuff. Andy is a meteorologist at the Fox station in Greenville-Spartanburg, and you can read his stuff anytime at the Fox Carolina Weather Blog.
Bundle up.....we are in the grips of another huge blast of true arctic air. We had some light snow pinwheel through yesterday evening, and it was enough to whiten the ground in some spots. However, the cold is the big story.
This is impressive cold, and some Piedmont spots will not see temps above freezing again until Wednesday afternoon. Highs today will struggle to make it into the low to mid 30s, and many spots will do good to see lower 30s tomorrow. It will remain blustery, especially today, with winds gusting to 30 or 35mph.
Overnight lows will dip into the dangerously cold category. Lows tonight and tomorrow night will be in the teens across the Piedmont. When you factor in the wind tomorrow morning, we will be looking at single digit wind chill values.
Our next storm system will roll through Wednesday night into Thursday. Now, this does not look to produce huge amounts of precip, however, there is enough there to catch your attention. The airmass across the region, at least initially, will be cold enough to produce a wintry mix with some spots possibly kicking over to rain before the precip ends Thursday.
It is still a bit too early for specifics, but some accumulating wintry precip is possible.
Various models at various times have produced a big winter storm for parts of the Southeast over the upcoming weekend. However, I have zero confidence in that possibility yet. We are dealing with relatively small-scale features in a fast-moving flow pattern, and any range of possibilities (from cold and dry to significant wintry precip) are on the table. We will see....
>> Thursday, December 09, 2010
Model Comparison: Some details are beginning to surface. One of those is a strengthening trend with the upper-level energy as the tilt of that energy pivots... the more the tilt is to the RIGHT, the better the chances of the cold air cooperating with the precipitation. I have drawn a "black line" to mark the tilt and it bisects the center at "X" or "N" of the upper-level energy responsible for producing precipitation and bringing in the cold air. The maps show corresponding upper-level energy and precip (same timeframe).
Also, as Matt has pointed out many times, when a cold snap presents itself... it's important show the increase in US snow-cover. That increase is obvious since November 19th.
Reason for posting the map bbove is to emphasize next week's cold snap. The arctic air in the forecast for next week will travel over a vast amount of snow cover. A considerable area of 4-8" currently exists in the upper midwest and 4-8" also exists in Western NC. Most of that snow has been produced by this latest cold snap. More snow will also fall from the low pressure system headed toward the Great Lakes on Saturday. Numbers will come crashing down. December standards (averages) won't be touched and records may fall next week.
Saturday: Cloudy with rain possible very late, but most of it holding off until Sunday morning. Highs 52-56 around Charlotte & 51-54 northern Foothills.
Sunday: This one is complex! The storm system creating all the buzz will move toward the Great Lakes Saturday evening and produce a strong cold front advancing through the TN Valley Sunday morning. Rain will move in Sunday morning as snow mixes in along the ridgetops of the NC Mountains and some sections of the NC Foothills. Again, rain will move in first. That is the main focus of the weekend forecast, yet will probably be OVERLOOKED from now until Sunday.
Now that all the seemingly boring "rain talk" is out of the way, the focus shifts to cold and the possibility of… well ______ . ***Snow will fall in Western North Carolina (mainly above 3000') and will accumulate… with a rough estimate on accumulations at 2-5″. Even though I'm not real familiar with the foothills area, I do think Hickory gets snow in this situation, as does the Burke County area near Morganton. Not only accumulating snow, but high winds driving wind chills at or below zero!*** I also feel good about snow in North Georgia due to a somewhat limited dry-downsloping effect from lesser elevations of southeast TN. I have to tell you that I'm usually optimistic about snow chances when they present themselves, but As of yet, I haven’t forecasted accumulating snow for the Upstate of SC. In this situation I’m glad I haven’t. Here’s why:
(1) As many people know, the NC Mountains have a major impact on the Charlotte area (in a westerly or northwesterly wind situation). Forecasters can’t ever discount this area’s topography and it’s impact on storm systems. For snow in the Charlotte area, if you don’t have the storm system to your south (or along the coast) and you want snow, well it’s a stretch. This time we don’t… this system will be centered north of us as it tracks into New England. In this situation, a downsloping wind may completely knock out most of the precipitation unless the cold front and temperature gradient produces enhanced precipitation along the front.
(2) All models indicate a nice, uniform line of rain along this front. Word of caution: forecast models always lay out an eye-pleasing, uniform line of rain along the front… yet when the actual storm gets here it’s usually broken and ragged. That’s just the fact of the matter. A ragged line of precipitation makes a lot of sense when you consider that most of the storm energy will pivot north of us.
With all those things said, I suppose Charlotte to Greensboro will have a chance at a narrow band or quick burst of snow along the tail end of the system. That is, unless this thing shows a CONTINUING strenthening trend on forecast models, tilts further negative and allows for cold air intrusion quicker. Still, my gut says forecast models are optimistic on the moisture along the front.
I will have a model comparison of upper-level energy up shortly...
>> Tuesday, December 07, 2010
Lows This Morning: Talk about a BITTERLY COLD shot of air for Early December! Just as Matt forecasted and blogged about, towns hit rock bottom this morning as arctic air settled into the Charlotte area and the Triad. Somebody call that dude named Gore because temperatures were nearly 20-degrees below normal today! Here's a rundown of how cold temperatures were this morning:
Starting Colder Wednesday Morning: As I write this (7:45ET), winds are calming a bit around the Charlotte area. Winds dying down overnight combined with a clear sky sets up the perfect situation for more cold temperatures. I expect lows to range from 12 to 16 in most areas tomorrow morning as more dry air downslopes off of Mountains in Western North Carolina. With more sunshine and less wind tomorrow, highs may actually reach the upper 30s, but then again maybe not! Middle-upper 30s under a good bit of sunshine is a good bet in many towns.
Strong Weekend Storm, Then Stronger Shot of Arctic Air: Over the past few days, the focus has not only been on the present cold snap, but also a strong storm system poised to move in this weekend. For a time last week, some analysis had shown the upper-level energy diving into the southeast and spawning a coastal area of low pressure (out east of Chaleston). That's when the rumors of snow began, but those hopes ended fairly quickly in all areas outside of the high terrain in Western North Carolina once the GFS and European locked into agreement on more of a TN Valley to Ohio Valley storm track in the direction of the Great Lakes.
The first map below was pulled from today's 12Z run of the GFS forecast model. As stated on the image, this shows a projection of conditions for Sunday evening at 7PM. Beofre I get started on the cold, I do want to point out that there is a possibility of some severe storms Sunday morning given the position of the low and wind shear produced by the strength of the low. On the the cold air though... at 7PM on Sunday, a line of showers/possible thunderstorms will have already pushed through the Charlotte area with very cold air behind the rain. The 0C/freezing line at 5,000ft is projected to be east of Charlotte at that point as northwest winds kick up.
The second map projects conditions 12-hours later (7AM Monday). At that point, it won't be all that fun to be outside! Very cold northwest winds will likely be howling. More arctic air will settle in Monday and it will be VERY INTERESTING to note highs on Monday... may not warm much past of the lower 30s! The ridgetops northwest of Asheville are going to have to deal with more accumulating snow, although tough to tell on accumulations at this point. Also, I have a sneaky feeling that parts of the Western North Carolina Mountains will go under a Blizzard Warning for winds higher than 35mph along with that snow. It will be interesting to watch conditons play out up there as well!
The last map I have posted shows a comparison of the GFS and European forecast models at the same time - next Tuesday at 7AM. Both models are in good agreement of the overall setup. Both show a very sharp trough and brutally cold air for early December! Both also show a persistent Greenland block - strong ridge of high pressure nosing into eastern Canada. This is helping keep fresh supplies of arctic air moving south. Also, as I mentioned earlier, a relatively weak ridge near the west coast looks as if it will remain in place for early next week. If that ridge along the west coast were more amplified, it might be scary how cold things would be around here!
I will try to post a snow-cover somparison tomorrow... hope everyone is able to stay warm!
>> Monday, December 06, 2010
Cold is the weather word this week. Many Piedmont locations will see highs shy of 40 for the next few days, and many lows will dip down into the teens. This is pure arctic air.
No storm system until we get to next weekend. Models still look all over the place with the exact track of that one, so tough to have any confidence at this point.
I will be out of town this week, but my buddy Andy Wood, a meteorologist at Fox Carolina in Greenville-Spartanburg, is kind enough to provide some information here on the blog this week. Andy is a bright meteorologist, and if you have never read his stuff, I think you will enjoy what he has to say.
Everyone have a great week. Throw another log on the fire and stay warm!
>> Saturday, December 04, 2010
First of all, regarding the clipper...
>> Friday, December 03, 2010
Below is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video...
It will be another fairly chilly day today with highs in the Piedmont in the upper 40s to lower 50s under a partly cloudy sky. Lows tonight will drop into the upper 20s to around 30 degrees.
A fairly potent 'clipper' system will drop into the region late tomorrow. Typically the mountains will wring most of the precip out of these types of systems, and this will likely largely happen once again tomorrow. However, this system is potent enough that I think some precip will make it into the Piedmont and even to the coast.
What type of precip? Generally speaking, I expect most of the precip (that will likely move in late in the afternoon for the western Piedmont and into the evening for areas farther east) to be in the form of some light snow for the I-40 corridor and points north. Some rain could mix in, but generally speaking, the atmosphere looks cold enough for the main precip type to be snow in those areas.
South of I-40, it looks like mainly some light rain with a few intervals of light snow possibly mixing in.
Now, the key work in all of this is 'light.' Some places will not see any precip at all, and in the places that do, it will not be very heavy. I do think it is within the realm of possibility that a few elevated surfaces could get dusted, but ground temps are still pretty warm, so any accumulation potential is limited to those elevated surfaces, and even at that, a dusting.
So, really, not a big deal, but kind of a novelty in that some places could see the first flakes of the season.
Here is the big deal....the cold air on the way. While it has been chilly the past couple of days, I am anticipating downright cold air to settle in for next week. I am talking many Piedmont highs shy of 40 for several days next week with lows in the upper teens to lower 20s.
This sustained cold blast will likely give most areas in the region at least 4 days of highs at least 15 degrees below average.....that is quite significant.
>> Thursday, December 02, 2010
Below is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video...
Cold air will be a common theme in our weather for at least the next week to ten days. The predominant weather pattern will feature a trough over eastern North America, and that will pull several re-enforcing blasts pure arctic air down into our region.
Today, a disturbance will move our way from the Plains states, but the system will be weakening as it approaches. So, while we will have a good deal of clouds overhead at times today, I don't anticipate any precipitation. It will be chilly though with Piedmont highs only in the 40s.
Tomorrow should feature lots of sun, and highs will be a few ticks above today's values....upper 40s to lower 50s.
A 'clipper' system will swing through our region late Saturday and Saturday night. Typically, clipper systems do not generate much if any precipitation around the Piedmont. However, this one is pretty potent, and there could be just enough moisture available for the system to wring out a little precip.
So, at this point I will mention the chance of some light snow late Saturday and Saturday night, mainly along and north of I-40. South of I-40, maybe some light rain ending with a few snow flakes.
This does not look like a big deal....precip amounts look very light. However, we will keep an eye out to see if it looks like the system will tap any deeper moisture.
It looks like 'cold' will be the dominant weather word next week. And I do mean cold. Highs on several days might not make it to 40 in some Piedmont areas, and lows most mornings will at least dip down into the low to mid 20s....and if we can get a night or two where winds relax, some teens are definitely possible.
As for the potential storm system, at this point it looks like cold will likely overwhelm the pattern in the eastern US, and the big trough will likely suppress any potential storm systems to our south. But we will watch to see if the trough will allow a system to get up our way at some point.
>> Wednesday, December 01, 2010
Below is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video...
After an active night with numerous severe thunderstorm and some tornado warnings issued across the region, a chilly, dry, and quiet airmass is arriving today.
Temperatures will not move a great deal through the day. In fact, the temps will begin to fall a bit in many spots later this afternoon, and lower 50s will be about the best we will do for daytime temps. It will be a bit breezy as this colder airmass arrives as well.
A cold night is on tap with lows well down into the 20s area-wide. Then tomorrow will only feature mid to upper 40s for highs around the Piedmont.
Friday will be cool and quite with highs in the lower 50s.
A clipper system will swing through this weekend. With this morning's forecast package, I have again left precip chances out of the forecast. However, I can't rule out a brief shower in a few spots at some point over the weekend. Highs will remain chilly....mainly in the mid to upper 40s.
Most modeling is indicating the potential storm system next week will remain to our south, and most of our region will simply be cold and dry. I am not ready to rule out the possibility of a storm system, but the trend has not been the friend of snow fans over the past 24 hours.
It does look cold next week with some low to mid 40s for highs and lows well down into the 20s. In fact, if the idea of a suppressed system (meaning no precip here) does indeed occur, some teens are quite possible for a few Piedmont lows.
>> Tuesday, November 30, 2010
A tornado watch has been issued for a good chunk of SC up into the Charlotte metro region of NC. The wedge has been successfully eroded away for most of the Piedmont, and the airmass is slowly getting more unstable. Most temps were in the 60s, and so were the dewpoints as of 2-3pm.
The sun is out in parts of GA up into parts of southern SC, and the airmass is rapidly getting more unstable there. Some of that unstable air will get pulled northward in the southerly flow ahead of the system.
The main band of rain and embedded storms will progress through the mountains and emerge into the foothills by early this evening.
Don't let the radar deceive you. The activity will probably not look terribly impressive as it begins to emerge out of the higher elevations. However, as the incoming dynamics interact with the more unstable air in the Piedmont and Upstate, the storms will likely intensify.
Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are the concern this evening into tonight.
Stay with News 14 Carolina on television for all of the latest information. And tonight is a perfect example of every home needing a NOAA weather radio.
Below is today's edition of the video...
The region will continue to see periods of rain today as a major storm system crawls into the area. The cool conditions we had in place yesterday will give way to a much milder airmass in time today, and most of the Piedmont will be well up into the 60s by later this afternoon. Some spots could even hit 70 degrees or so.
As the airmass gets more unstable, thunderstorms enter the forecast equation. While a few storms could be involved late this afternoon, I think tonight is the main time-frame for storms. This is a classic high shear/ low instability setup, and similar setups in the past have resulted in severe weather. We will have to be vigilant in watching for severe storms capable of producing damaging winds and even a few tornadoes tonight.
This is another case where the possibility exists over severe weather while the bulk of the community is sleeping. Every home should have a NOAA weather radio. If and when severe weather develops, we will be on the air covering it for you, but we can't wake you up through the TV sets. There is a chance this winds up being a non-event, but have a way of hearing watches and warnings in the event they are required.
Quiet and chilly weather resumes tomorrow through the weekend. A 'clipper' system will roll through Sunday and bring some clouds. However, the moisture still looks quite limited, and once again I have left precip out of the weekend forecast. Most high and low temps on a daily basis will be a little below average.
Model madness continues for next week, and I still think there is the possibility of a storm system for the Deep South and/or Southeast Tuesday into Wednesday. I think the GFS is unusable for the time being (at least as of the 0z run today)....it over-amplifies things early next week over the eastern US and really crushes the disturbance that would create the storm system. The Canadian and European models both still have the system, and I think they are more correct. But time will tell....
>> Monday, November 29, 2010
After some fairly chilly, docile weather Saturday and Sunday, the weather is about to get more active around here. Today, clouds will be on the increase for the Charlotte and Triad zones on up into the mountains, and some drizzle could develop in time. Highs today will largely be in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
The core of our next system will swing through later tomorrow and exit very early Wednesday. Rain will be a possibility from time to time tomorrow, with the heaviest rain during the day being the farther west you head....especially in the mountains and foothills. With time, the band of heavier rain will pivot eastward through the rest of the area. This will occur mainly Tuesday night. at that point, a few storms could be involved as well. This is a high shear/ low instability set up, and a few severe storms can't be ruled out, especially as you get closer to I-95.
Flooding will likely be an issue for the mountains and foothills. I fully anticipate some 3-5" rain amounts in those areas. For the I-85 corridor, this is looking like a 1-2" type rain event.
Later this week...
A fresh push of cold air will arrive later Wednesday, and highs will likely struggle to get out of the 40s in some Piedmont spots Thursday into the weekend.
A couple of 'clipper' type systems will move through late this week and then again Sunday. At this point, moisture looks pretty limited, so I don't have any precip chances in the forecast with those.
System next week...
It sure looks like another system will roll through the region Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. This is the one that has been hinted at by the modeling for a while now. That one definitely bears watching for the potential for at least some wintry weather somewhere around the region as a whole. WAY too soon for any type of details....but it has my interest.
>> Friday, November 26, 2010
Black Friday began in mild, breezy fashion with Piedmont temps surging up into the 60s ahead of an advancing cold front. That front will continues to move through the region today, and we will continue to have the chance of some showers into this afternoon. A few rumbles of thunder can't be ruled out, but there is not enough instability in place for a big worry with thunderstorms.
Temperatures will begin to drop this afternoon, and by the time Saturday morning arrives, most spots will be below freezing.
Sunshine will abound tomorrow and Sunday with highs in the 50s. Lows will remain below freezing through Monday morning.
Our next storm system will roll through Tuesday and Wednesday next week. Look for shower chances both days, and some storms look like a possibility Tuesday night into early Wednesday.
Much colder air will flow in here later Wednesday, and the rain could change to snow up in the mountains prior to ending. We will have another chilly, primarily sunny couple of days to finish next week.
>> Thursday, November 25, 2010
I want to wish everyone a happy Thanksgiving!
In terms of the weather....no the prettiest of Thanksgiving forecasts. We have somewhat of a cold air damming scenario in play today. The result is a lot of clouds and fairly cool temps. Piedmont highs will range from the mid 50s to lower 60s, and some light rain and drizzle is possible at times.
The wedge will get scoured out tonight, and that will mean steady or even rising temps.
Tomorrow, a cold front will slide through, and that front will bring some showers. So, as you head out to hit the sales, bring the umbrella. Highs tomorrow will actually occur during the morning with falling temps tomorrow afternoon.
Beautiful, albeit chilly, weather will unfold Saturday and Sunday. Piedmont highs will be 50s with lows at or below freezing. Both days will feature a sunny sky.
Another storm system will roll through Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. Look for rain possibilities on both of those days with some colder air to follow by Thursday. That system could involve some mountain snow on the backside as colder air rushes in before the precip ends.
>> Wednesday, November 24, 2010
Below is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video.....
Today is the biggest travel day of the year, and if your travel plans take you anywhere around our immediate region, there will not be any weather problems for you. However, the travel trouble spot today is in the nation's midsection. Rain will occur from the Ozarks into the Ohio Valley. Snow will again fly from the Dakotas into Minnesota and Wisconsin.
For our area, we will see lots of sunshine today with cooler conditions than yesterday...most Piedmont highs will be between 60 and 64 degrees. Speaking of yesterday, a record high of 75 was achieved at the PTI airport.
Our Thanksgiving day is shaping up to be a cloudy, cool, and damp one. Highs will be pretty cool....only low to mid 50s in the Piedmont....and we will have a primarily cloudy sky. Some drizzle is possible at times as well.
Our next front will spread showers in from later Thursday night into Friday, especially Friday morning.
After that front clears, we will have a chilly, sunny forecast for the rest of the weekend. Piedmont highs Saturday and Sunday will be in the 50s with lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s. Highs will be in the 40s this weekend for many mountain spots.
Another system will wrap up toward the Great Lakes and bring another cold front our way. Showers, and maybe a storm or two, will roll in Tuesday and Wednesday with a push of chillier air to follow.
The latest model runs have our system at the end of next week well to our north.
>> Tuesday, November 23, 2010
Below is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video....lots of good stuff in there....give it a watch.
Another mild day will unfold around the region today with highs in the lower 70s in many Piedmont spots. A cold front is approaching and will bring the chance of a few showers from this afternoon into this evening. However, rain amounts where the showers do occur will not be terribly impressive.
Tomorrow will be quiet around our region with lots of sun for much of the day and highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Thanksgiving day is looking relatively cool and cloudy with highs in the mid to upper 50s to near 60. Some drizzle is possible, but no real appreciable rain.
Another cold front will slide through Friday and bring some rain, especially through the first half of the day. Then we are looking for full sunshine Saturday and Sunday with chillier temps. Highs should be in the 50s with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s.
It looks like we will have a system move through Tuesday or Wednesday and bring some rain. After that, more chilly air should arrive, and there is the potential for another system around the Dec. 4-6 time frame. The GFS keeps popping a system with the potential for wintry weather with that one....but all I can really say at this point is that yes, there *might* be a system around that time frame......but then again, the northern branch might wind up stronger and crush it. So, nothing too exciting yet. But it is interesting to watch.
>> Monday, November 22, 2010
Some computer issues at work this morning, so this will be brief....no video this morning...I will be back in my regular routine tomorrow morning.
Some stubborn clouds today were slow to erode, but all in all, a mild few days will unfold. Highs today are in the upper 60s to lower 70s, and we should see low to mid 70s tomorrow.
Once again tomorrow morning, clouds and some fog will be with us, but there should be at least a few intervals of sun.
A cold front will drop in by tomorrow night, and ahead of that front, we will have a chance of a few showers from late tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening.
For the big travel day Wednesday, no problems around here with sunshine and highs in the 60s. However, another system will bring some snow to the northern Plains and rain and storms to the Midwest and central Plains.
I think most of us will be able to squeeze out a dry Thanksgiving day, although we will see a good deal of clouds. Highs look to be in the lower 60s for most.
A cold front will progress through Friday, bringing the chance of some rain for the big shopping day.
Chillier air will settle in for the remainder of the weekend. Highs will be in the 50s at best Saturday and Sunday despite full sunshine.
Lots of question marks as we end November and begin December. The week looks fairly cold for much of the US, and there are hints of a storm system or two. We will see. . .
>> Friday, November 19, 2010
Below is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video...
We are back to full sunshine around our region today, and that will remain the case all weekend. Highs today around the Piedmont are in the mid to upper 50s to near 60. Highs tomorrow and Sunday will warm well up into the 60s.
The first few days of Thanksgiving week will be quite mild....upper 60s Monday for highs with some lower 70s possible Tuesday and maybe even Wednesday. However, that mild weather will then sharply change.
An arctic cold front will gradually settle closer to and eventually through the region later Wednesday and Thursday. A few showers are possible Wednesday, but it still looks like the best shower chances will be on Thanksgiving itself.
Much colder air will plunge in here by Black Friday....we might see some Piedmont highs shy of 50 Friday. The cold air only gets reinforced as we then go through Saturday and Sunday with highs and lows well below average.
How long will the cold last?
Good question. As of now, I think we will stay primarily below average for temps into early December, but there will be some modification at times.
The GFS continues to pop up random snowstorms out there in fantasy land near the end of the cycle. It is certainly within the realm of possibility that somebody in our region will see some wintry precip during this upcoming colder pattern, however, I don't see anything specific for snow fans to get excited about as of now.
>> Thursday, November 18, 2010
A storm system is pulling into the region today. However, it is rapidly weakening, and the precip associated with the system continues to dwindle with time. A few showers are possible up in the mountains today, and a few sprinkles might make it into the northern foothills, but that will be about it. Most folks will only see some clouds today. Highs will be close to average for the time of year...upper 50s to near 60.
Another chilly night is ahead with lows back down into the 30s tonight, then full sunshine returns tomorrow through the weekend. Highs tomorrow will likely be in the upper 50s with highs back into the 60s through the weekend.
Mild weather will be with us Monday and Tuesday to start the Thanksgiving week with highs in the 60s to even lower 70s at times, especially Tuesday. However, big changes are on tap later in the week.
A cold front will drop in here around Wednesday and begin to bring the chance of some showers. This will be a rather slow frontal passage, so it looks like the chance of at least some rain will extend into Thanksgiving itself.
Behind that front, arctic air will engulf the eastern US. This is the blast of cold air that I have been discussing in this space for quite a while now. It looks like Black Friday and the rest of the following weekend will be quite chilly. How cold? Still working on that, but at least several days of below average high and low temps....and the cold will likely be with us right on into early December.
Snow fans keep wondering about the possibility of winter weather. Nothing overly exciting as of yet. However, as we make the switch to the colder pattern, there are signs of the storm track being at least somewhat active. We will see....
>> Wednesday, November 17, 2010
It was a fairly rough and tumble evening across the region with showers and some severe storms. A number of wind damage reports came in all the way from South Carolina up into southern New England.
However, today we are on the back side of that departing low pressure area, and that means dry air has returned to the area. We will see sunshine all day with highs in the low to mid 60s. It will also be fairly breezy today on the back side of that low.
Our next system will swing in tomorrow, but it will be in a weakening state, and moisture will be very limited, so I don't expect any rain. However, we will have some clouds move through as our Thursday unfolds.
Another great weekend!
What else is new.....another great weekend forecast! Highs will be in the 60s with full sunshine this weekend. Morning lows will be in the upper 30s to near 40.
It will be a warm start to our Thanksgiving week with lots of sunshine Monday and Tuesday and highs warming into the upper 60s by Tuesday....even some lower 70s are quite possible.
However, a cold front will likely drop in here by Wednesday or Thursday, bringing some rain chances. Very cold air is waiting in the wings behind that front, and I will continue to say the window of opportunity opens for that cold air to drop in here as we go deeper into the Thanksgiving weekend.
>> Tuesday, November 16, 2010
An area of low pressure will lift from Mississippi this morning to Ohio this evening. We will be on the warm side of the system, so our region will continue to have showers roll through from time to time today.
>> Monday, November 15, 2010
Our next system is organizing in Louisiana this morning, and that low will gradually lift northeast. By later tomorrow, the low will be tracking from eastern Tennessee into West Virginia, meaning we will be on the "warm" side of the system.
For our Monday, rain will spread in with time today, and high temps are a challenge to forecast. I will generally say low to mid 60s for the Piedmont, but it is tricky.
Look for periods of rain tonight through tomorrow. As the wind fields aloft strengthen tomorrow, a few storms could become involved. Although the chance is fairly limited, a few strong to severe storms are possible, mainly tomorrow afternoon. Lows tonight will only settle to near 50 with highs tomorrow highly dependent on rain coverage....60s generally speaking.
Later this week...
The system will be gone by Wednesday with lots of sun and highs up toward the upper 60s. A push of chillier air will briefly arrive for Friday into Saturday with some spots in the 50s for highs Friday. But, a substantial warm-up looks likely by Sunday and Monday....maybe some spots hitting lower 70s again by next Monday.
Plenty of very cold air will invade Canada and the northern US later this week. Through the first half of Thanksgiving week next week, the upper air pattern will keep that colder air bottled up to our north, and it looks fairly warm around our region. However, in time, the pattern should buckle over the eastern US, allowing the colder air to make it in here. The timing is still a question mark, but later Thanksgiving weekend is a possibility.