For the Carolinas, look for scattered showers and storms to fire today and wane this evening. A few storms could be severe with damaging winds and some hail. However, our severe weather threat today is nothing like the threat to our west.
After a significant severe weather outbreak yesterday, Arkansas and many surrounding areas are in for another violent round of severe weather later today and tonight. A broad 'moderate' risk of severe weather is out for that area, and it is possible that an upgrade to 'high' could occur in later outlooks today.
Then the threat shifts eastward tomorrow. Frankly speaking, the synoptic (large) scale setup is about as bad as it gets for the Tennessee Valley. All of the necessary parameters for severe weather are there in spades. However, with severe weather, small scale features are always the determining factor between a major and a minor event, and that won't be evident until tomorrow. However, all of the larger scale features you look for to favor a severe weather outbreak are there.
In short, northern MS, northern AL, TN, KY, northeast GA, and into the mountains of the Carolinas could have a major severe weather event tomorrow.
Below is the Significant Tornado Parameter valid tomorrow afternoon, which combines several different severe weather indices, and is normally a good way to diagnose tornado potential on the modeling. Keep in mind, this is only model output. These are very significant values for the Tennessee Valley.
The storms will wind up spreading east of the mountains by Wednesday night and early Thursday morning. Although the storms will likely be in a weakening phase, severe weather is quite possible in the Piedmont regions with this system.
We will of course watch all of this very carefully.
Be sure and scroll to the post below this one to see today's edition of the video....tons of stuff in there.
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