Cooler, drier airmass is here...

What a rough afternoon and evening yesterday. Here's the storm report map from the SPC. Tons of wind damage reports featured, many of which were in our region.

However, a much cooler and drier airmass has arrived, and that will provide for excellent weather today into the Father's Day weekend.

There's a limited chance of a shower or two today as one final impulse ripples through, but most will be dry.

See the video for much, much more....

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This afternoon...

At 1pm, temps in the piedmont are near 90 and dewpoints are near 70. This is a very warm and unstable airmass.

An upper level disturbance was located back near Kentucky. You can note the storms firing on the leading edge of the disturbance on the water vapor image below.

The SPC has upped a chunk of the region into the 'Moderate risk' area for severe storms this afternoon/evening. Damaging winds remain the main threat. Here are the wind probabilites from the latest SPC outlook.

Finally, here is the RPM model, valid at 6pm.

We will likely have an intense line, or broken line, of storms move first through the mountains and then through the foothills and piedmont as the afternoon unfolds.

The wind damage potential is elevated due to a number of meteorological factor in place. Please take Severe Thunderstorm Warnings seriously today. 

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Hot with strong storms this afternoon...

After creating a sizable severe weather outbreak in the Midwest yesterday, our next system arrives into our region today. It will be a hot day just in advance of the system with highs pushing into the 90s in many areas. Then, later this afternoon, some big storms should fire and move quickly through the region.

The wind damage potential is elevated with any storm today, and although the greatest tornado threat will lie from Virginia northward, I can't rule out isolated tornadoes in the Carolinas too.

Make sure you have a good way of hearing any watches and warnings this afternoon and evening.

Following this system, beautiful weather will settle in for tomorrow and the Father's Day weekend.

Here's today's video with much more information:

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Hot today... storms tomorrow...

Heat will build into the region today with many highs topping 90 this afternoon. The overall chance of a storm in any one spots is limited.

However....fly in the ointment. Some of the higher-resolution models are showing a big cluster of storms firing this morning in the Virginias that then drop into NC later today. As of this typing, there are no signs of that actually occurring, but it bears watching.

A big severe weather outbreak is likely in parts of the Midwest today. Then, that system drop into the Eastern Seaboard tomorrow.

Around here, some storms are likely tomorrow afternoon, and the wind damage potential looks pretty elevated with any storms. We will watch it.

The SPC has some very high severe probabilities in some areas today and tomorrow. See the video for more.

Following that system, a delightful June airmass will settle in for Friday and Saturday.

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Quieter for a couple of days...

A cold front is sliding east and out of the region today, and some drier air is following that front through the region. This will essentially eliminate rain chances for much of the foothills and piedmont as this slightly drier air takes hold.

Heat will build a bit with widespread 90-plus temps tomorrow and Thursday.

A potent disturbance will arrive into our region by Thursday afternoon. This looks like a setup that could produce some wind damage across the mid-Atlantic and into the Carolinas, so we will watch it.

Following that system, the weather looks extremely nice for Friday and most of the weekend.

Here's today's video for more....

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Unsettled today...

A potent upper level disturbance is moving into the region today, and that disturbance will generate areas of showers and storms at times today and into tonight.

The overall atmosphere setup is supportive of at least some chance of damaging winds and isolated tornadoes, so we will need to keep a close watch on the storms.

The ground is also quite wet, so any areas of locally heavy rain could generate some flash flooding problems.

We will dry things out for tomorrow and Wednesday, and the heat will build a bit. In fact, many of us could top 90 during the mid-week period.

Another potent system will clip through here later Thursday, and at that point, the shower and storm chances look high again.

At the moment, the upcoming weekend is looking very nice with 80s and sunshine.

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