Discussion and information regarding the weather that impacts the Southeast The views and opinions expressed on this page do not represent Time Warner Cable or Time Warner Cable News.
Below is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video. In the post below this one is my winter forecast and video.
A much cooler airmass has arrived across our region. Despite a sunny sky, highs today will warm into the low to at most mid 60s.
Many locations will have their coldest night thus far this season tonight. Under a clear sky, temps will drop off into the 30s by Saturday morning, and in many Piedmont locations, temps will likely be cold enough for frost. Some of the traditionally colder spots might even dip into the lower 30s.
A delightful October weekend is on tap. Look for sunshine with 60s for highs tomorrow and lower 70s for Halloween. No problems either evening for the trick-or-treaters.
Next week....
Next week will be a cool week overall. At some point, likely Tuesday through Thursday, our next system will roll in. Lots of uncertainty with the details of that one, but I will mention some shower chances those days, and we might wind up with a few days with highs in the 50s.
Tropics...
Tropical Storm Shary will scrape near Bermuda today as a minumal tropical storm....then head out to sea.
There is a sizable tropical wave nearing the eastern Caribbean. We will watch that one for development.
Above is the video to accompany the winter forecast. Please see it for all of the graphical information. I picture is worth a thousand words.
For those of you that are new to my winter outlooks, my goal each year is to put out my forecast prior to Halloween. The temperature and precip forecasts relative to average are based on December, January, and February, and any snowfall ideas are first flake to last flake, whatever month they occur in.
Last year's winter forecast worked out very, very nicely. I still have all of those maps saved, and the video is still on my youtube channel for those interested. Overall, it went about as well as a seasonal forecast can go.
This time around, my confidence is somewhat lower. One of the dominant weather players for this winter is a strong La Nina. The La Nina is a strong one, and that means there is a relatively small sample size of analog years with similar La Nina values. Due to the low number of analog years, this can sometimes lead you down the wrong path.
Another key factor is how the Atlantic behaves. For much of the year, the NAO and the AO have been on the negative side of things, or at most neutral. One recent exception is a positive spike in those values in early October. How these values unfold will play a major role this winter.
At this point, I am going with the idea that a neutral to negative NAO/AO combination will be with us, at least through the first half of winter.
So, with all of that said, here we go...
The analog years I have gone with are the winters of 55/56, 73/74, 75/76, 88/89, 98/99, 99/00. I have placed more weight in the analogs from the 50s and 70s....reason being a much closer match with the current solar cycle than the other years mentioned as well as a better overall match with the cycle of the PDO, or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.
So, my overall forecast for the winter.
Please see the maps at the bottom for the individual month breakdowns of the analog years for temps and precip.
For the Carolinas:Temperatures: Above averagePrecipitation: Average to a bit below
That is very vague, so let's get a little more specific. I anticipate, relative to averages, December to be our coldest winter month. For the Southeast, I will go with average December temps. From there, January and February are look above average for the Southeast's temps.
For precip, each of the months look to be fairly close to average. The closer you get to the Gulf coast, the drier it looks overall.
Snowfall forecasts are always tricky. It only takes one quite healthy snow event to reach averages around much of our non-mountain areas. I do think we will have our chances this winter, however, unlike last winter where we had one potential event right after another, they will be fewer in number. If we can cash in on one or two of these potential events, then the region will do OK for snow. If not, then not so much.
I think December could be our best opportunity for winter events, with the potential dwindling a bit as the winter unfolds. However, even in a sea of above average temperatures, it only takes one well-placed upper level low to dump snow. So, back away from the ledge, snow fans. There is always hope.
So again, to recap, the coldest winter temperatures overall look to be during the first half of winter with above average temps taking over as we get deeper into winter. However, the mid-Atlantic to the Tennessee Valley could wind up being a battle ground for airmasses, so there will be some temps swings. And with colder air sitting fairly close by, that could lend itself to some ice or wintry mix events.
Again, please see the video...I get into lots of graphics with more detailed information in there.
After a couple of days of unsettled weather featuring rain, storms, severe weather, flooding, and the kitchen sink....much quieter weather is arriving as our storm system continues to pull away.
Today will be dry with a drier airmass pushing in from the northwest. However, it will still be fairly warm this afternoon with lots of Piedmont locations making it up into the lower 80s.
Chillier air will begin settling in tonight with lows in the 40s under a clear sky. You will definitely notice the difference tomorrow with highs in the low to mid 60s in spite of a sunny sky.
Lows Saturday morning will be well down into the 30s, and I still think some Piedmont spots will see a frost.
Weekend....
A delightful Halloween weekend is on tap. Sunshine will abound both days with highs Saturday in the 60s and highs Sunday toward the lower 70s. Whether the kids are trick-or-treating Saturday or Sunday evening, the weather will be great both days with evening temps falling into the 50s.
Next week....
Another storm system will impact our region Tuesday and Wednesday next week. However, instead of storms and severe weather, this system looks to bring us some pretty chilly rain. Temps Wednesday could very well be in the 50s all day.
Winter Forecast....
I am releasing my winter forecast today. I will have it and its accompanying video posted later this morning.
Here is some viewer video of a tornado in Person county yesterday...
Storms are increasing in intensity in the Upstate into portions of the Piedmont. Looks like parameters are again in place for storms to rotate, and damaging winds and tornadoes will be the main potential. Looks like the actions will shift to near I-85 this time around...
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 735 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 205 PM EDT WED OCT 27 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST GEORGIA WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 205 PM UNTIL 900 PM EDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTH OF ANDERSON SOUTH CAROLINA TO 65 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF DANVILLE VIRGINIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 733...WW 734...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG SW-NE ORIENTED SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. A 40 KT SWLY LLJ WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH 50-55 KT SWLY MIDLEVEL WIND FIELD...IS RESULTING IN A SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.
Waves of showers and storms rolled through the areas north and west of I-85 from yesterday evening into early this morning. Quite a few tornado warnings were required, and some damage and flooding occurred in spots.
Those showers and storms were out ahead of a slowly advancing cold front. The front will likely stay just to our west until later tonight. So, our Wednesday forecast will continue to be highlighted by the chance of scattered showers and storms. Those chances will continue for at least a portion of tonight as well.
Some storms could again be locally strong to severe. Damaging winds and brief tornadoes are the main threats.
Much drier air will move in tomorrow as the front pushes east of us. Friday and Saturday will be much chillier with some 60s for highs and a sunny sky. Lows Saturday morning will be well down into the 30s....some Piedmont spots might see a frost.
For Halloween, the weather will be terrific with sunshine and lower 70s for highs. No problems for the trick-or-treaters at all.
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 729 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 720 PM EDT TUE OCT 26 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA WESTERN MARYLAND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA WESTERN AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA THE EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 720 PM UNTIL 300 AM EDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF MARTINSBURG WEST VIRGINIA TO 10 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF ANDERSON SOUTH CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE IN A LOOSE BAND FROM SC NEWD INTO WRN NC AND WRN VA THIS EVENING...IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORING SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES. FARTHER N AND LATER...A BAND OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE WHICH WEAKENED OVER THE APPALACHIANS WILL ENCOUNTER A MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS VA/MD. HERE...STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR COULD SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF ADDITIONAL BOWING SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES TONIGHT.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
The potential for severe weather will ramp up as we head through tonight and tomorrow. At 4:30pm, instability had already increased enough to promote shower and storm development in portion of the region....we are just waiting forcing to spread in from the west.
I expect the mountains and foothills to see showers and storms fire tonight, and those storms could produce damaging winds or tornadoes.
As the night wears on, the zone of showers and storms will gradually work east. The atmosphere will get more stable with time tonight, however, I still expect the atmosphere to be able to support locally strong to severe storms as the activity spreads into the Piedmont. Lows will be very mild....upper 60s at the coolest.
The chance of scattered storms will continue through tomorrow as a cold front gradually works through.
You need to have a reliable way of hearing watches and warnings, should they be required tonight or tomorrow. We will keep you up to date with live weather information as needed on News 14 Carolina, but we cannot reach through the TV to wake you up.
A powerhouse storm system is rapidly deepening in the Midwest today, and that will drive a cold front our way. The barometric pressure on that Midwest low will bottom out all of the way down to below 960mb.....as low as a strong hurricane. Up in Indiana and Ohio, a 'high risk' of severe weather is in place this morning, and the 'slight risk' area extends all of the way from southern Mississippi through the Tennessee Valley, western Carolinas into New York.
For our area, we saw a batch of rain with embedded lightning rapidly move through this morning. For the rest of the day, while a few isolated showers or storms could develop, the day looks largely dry, mild, and breezy. Highs will range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s.
A squall line out ahead of the cold front in the Midwest will race southeastward and largely hold together as it moves into our area. At this point, it looks like that line of showers and storms could roll into the Piedmont after midnight tonight, and then scattered showers and storms will remain a possibility Wednesday. Some storms could be severe, and we will watch the potential closely.
The system will exit the region by Thursday, and significantly cooler air will arrive for Friday and the Halloween weekend. Highs Friday and Saturday will be in the 60s, and I still think some frost is possible in some spots Saturday morning.
The weather still looks good for the trick-or-treaters this weekend.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 714 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 825 AM EDT MON OCT 25 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA EXTREME SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 825 AM UNTIL 100 PM EDT.
HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF DUBLIN VIRGINIA TO 20 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...PERSISTENT/ORGANIZED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS ATTM...INTO MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BUT STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. WITH CONTINUED MID-LEVEL COOLING AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OVERSPREADING THE AREA AHEAD OF A STRONG VORT MAX CROSSING THE TN VALLEY REGION...EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE MOVING RAPIDLY EWD -- POSING A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH MIDDAY.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26040.
Sunday night was an active weather night across Mississippi and Alabama with numerous severe thunderstorm warnings and a few tornado warnings issued.
The disturbance that caused all of that active weather is moving into our region today, weakening as it does so. We will have the chance of showers and embedded storms today, and a few storms could produce some damaging wind gusts and even a brief tornado. We will watch it closely.
We will be in a warm and unsettled pattern until a potent cold front ushers in chilly air for Friday and the Halloween weekend. Tomorrow we will be between storm systems, so the rain chance, while not zero, is relatively low. Shower and storm chances will increase as that front approaches later Wednesday into Thursday.
Highs around the region will surge into the 80s through the mid-week period. Lows will remain in the 60s.
Behind the front, look for some 60s for highs Friday and Saturday and lows Saturday morning well down into the 30s. Some frost looks like it might be possible Saturday morning in some places.
For Halloween, great weather. Lower 70s for highs with evening temps slipping through the 60s and into the 50s.
Tropics...
Hurricane Richard made landfall in Belize last night and is now weakening in Central America.
I am a husband, father of five, and meteorologist. I am a believer in the Lord Jesus Christ and am thankful for all of the Lord's blessings in my life.
"He is not here, but He has been resurrected!... Luke 24:6
