On the air for a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for portions of Gaston county....been popping the live hits since 11pm. Another strong storm near Statesville.....
**12:30 update...new warning for central Iredell county.**
**2am update...some showers and storms will linger through the pre-dawn hours...lots of rain and lightning. But severe weather looking unlikely now.**
Fay continues trucking off to the west tonight, and the eventual track is all really a matter of pinning down when the system begins to make a turn toward the northwest and then north.
I am getting pretty comfortable with the idea of a Florida landfall on the Gulf of Mexico side. I am not ready to rule out the Panhandle as a possibility, but most indications are for a Peninsula landfall. The longer Fay keeps moving due west, the more the Panhandle is a possibility. But I am leaning toward Peninsula. The chance of Fay scraping up the east side of Florida has about vanished....not completely, but just about.
Now, assuming Fay comes inland on the Gulf coast of Florida, there are two distinct possibilities from there. First option, the system keeps on a generally northerly heading, eventually tracking into northern Georgia and/or the western Carolinas. That would place the Carolinas in a very favorable position for some soaking rains....and boy could we use that.
The other possibility is Fay bends back to the northeast and tries to emerge back into the Atlantic. That would spell problems for the Carolina coast, but for us, we would be on the 'dry' side of the system, and therefore would see very little rain.
I note that the 0z models have essentially all come in with a general track that would give us some nice rains.....let's hope so.
One thing that looks likely at this point is that wherever Fay make it to by Tuesday or Wednesday....that is generally where the system will be for several more days....the steering currents look to die for several days. Now, if that is inland over the western Carolinas, we get lots and lots of rain. If it is off the coast of Georgia or the Carolinas, we could be looking at a storm maintaining of gaining strength.
Lots of questions still. For us to see some nice rains, the farther west the better at this point. We need the eventual track to be to our west to get some real drought relief.
We are no closer this morning in determining Fay's eventual track then we were last night.The model guidance has shifted back eastward from last night's runs (see on the right column)....and like I said last night, I am still going to leave all options on the table as far as eventual track....anywhere from the central Gulf coast to the Atlantic coast.
I think the Atlantic coast option continues to look less likely simply because of Fay's continued westward motion (regardless of the model shift this morning...you have to look at the actual weather), but I am not ready to remove the idea from the table.
The center of Fay is emerging back over water today...we will see how things shake out through the day. Keep checking back here on the blog...much more ahead....
Fay is one tough nut to crack tonight, for various reasons. First of all, it is still quite difficult to determine exactly where the center is. If is over eastern Hispaniola, but the specific location is tough to pin down. The last recon plane reported some conflicting signals in the wind field as to the exact center location.
Secondly, wherever the center currently is, it will be interacting with land in some fashion though the weekend as it moves through Hispaniola and at least brushes with Cuba. Those land interactions are tricky....they can cause the center to wobble, bounce around, and even re-form.
There has been a definitive westward shift in all modeling today, and most models now take Fay into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Most tracks take the system into Florida, either the Gulf side of the Peninsula or the Panhandle. The western-most outlier is the NOGAPS which takes the system toward New Orleans. The NAM has been the eastern-most outlier, still keeping the system on the Atlantic side of Florida.
My original idea was that this would scrape up the Atlantic coast of Florida and make a run up the coast from there, possibly toward the Carolinas. This is certainly looking less likely now, but I am not ready to completely abandon that idea.
At this point, I am leaving all options on the table....eventual landfall could be anywhere from the Atlantic coast of Florida all of the way to the central Gulf coast. It will be a tell-tale sign for this system when it emerges from Hispaniola....if it is heading north of Cuba, the Atlantic options are still on the table, if it heads south of Cuba, Gulf it is.
As far as intensity is concerned, I think the overall upper air pattern will be favorable for strengthening. The obvious problem is land interaction....but once the system clears land for any period of time, fairly rapid strengthening is possible. If this winds up hitting south Florida, then the time for strengthening would be limited....however, if it were to head to the central Gulf coast, then that would be lots of time for it to get its act together.
Any way you look at it, I think the odds of the Carolinas picking up some beneficial rains have increased today....that would be fantastic news. This would be later next work week.
To wind this long post down, really as many question as there are answers at this point. Keep checking the blog...I will keep things up to date as the weekend unfolds. Notice on the right some goof Fay info....including the NHC RSS feed on the system. Below is the 18z HWRK model....scary run for Florida.
Looks like the NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Storm Fay at 5pm....will be interesting to see their thinking...I am beginning to lean more in the direction of a possible Gulf landfall, but I am not going to formally change my ideas just yet...
The severe weather threat has come to an end for much of the area.
More later this evening....hopefully.
Looks like a nice center of circulation developing...I would expect classification this afternoon or evening. Click on the image for a nice radar loop....
We have a Severe Thunderstorm Watch out until 9pm....seethe watches and warnings graphic on the right.....
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENTRead more...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER THE MONA
PASSAGE IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP INTO
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE THE LOW MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR
OR OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS AFTERNOON. NOAA AND AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ARE SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
TO PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...
EASTERN CUBA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INTERESTS IN THESE
AREAS...AS WELL AS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...THE REMAINDER
OF CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Good morning! Things remain essentially unchanged with our tropical disturbance this morning. There is still not a dominant low level center, and thus, still no classification as a tropical depression or storm. However, I still think it is only a matter of time, and assuming this doesn't track directly over Hispaniola, all of the parameters look in place for strengthening.
No changes here on my eventual thoughts with this. It will likely affect the Bahamas, then turn to the north just east of the Florida coast, possibly heading in the direction of the Carolina coast. It could wind up eventually turning inland into the Carolinas, or it could keep moving up the coast. (By the way, the 6z GFS shows the general idea of the former....and absolutely soaks us with rain for days on end. That would be some serious drought relief.) But, it all remains conjecture until it actually forms a low level center and I can see where to start tracking this thing from.
Another recon plane will head in today...more on the blog this afternoon....
One of the more impressive un-classified systems I have ever seen. All of the players on on the field for this thing to take off in intensity, but first it has to get a nice low level and mid-level center lined up with deep convection. Once that happens, look out...assuming is stays just north of mountainous Hispaniola.
Here is the San Juan radar (the basemap doe not show up below, but will if you click on it)...click on the image for and updated shot...
Here is a radar view of the developing tropical wave...recon was in the system this afternoon and was not able to formally find a closed low level center. So, we do not have a classified tropical system as of yet.
Click on the image above for an updated image....
**Click the image or look at the right hand column for updated image.**
Our tropical wave northeast of the Lesser Antilles is springing to life this morning. A recon plan will head into the system later today, and I think odds are this gets classified as a tropical system sooner rather than later.
You can check the spaghetti plot of the model tracks on the right hand column of the blog. Most modeling develops this into a strong tropical system, and a lot of indications are that this heads in the general direction of the Carolina coast. Below is the latest European model run...it develops 92L into a strong hurricane, tracks it to just off of the Carolina coast, and gradually then moves it in the direction of the coast.
We, as always, will keep you up to date in the happenings in the tropics. We will have full tropical updates for you at :21 and :51 after every hour.
Some nice rains moved into much of the region overnight last night, and rain will continue at times through this morning before tapering off this afternoon. There was even some lightning involved during the pre-dawn hours, and a few more rumbles of thunder are possible. However, severe weather will not be a problem....those issues will remain to our south.
Drier air will settle in tonight, and it will be nice with most lows dropping into the upper 50s.
Tomorrow will be warmer with highs back into the mid 80s. Humidity levels will be pretty low, making for a fairly comfortable day. A few pop-up afternoon storms will be possible...same story Friday. Right now, the weekend looks primarily dry.
In the tropics, I am still watching two tropical waves out in the Atlantic....see the NHC map on the right. Most computer modeling continues to develop one or both of those systems. The first tropical wave, located northeast of the Caribbean islands, could be a threat to the Bahamas and then either Florida into the Gulf or possibly the Southeast coast....we shall see.
A cold weather season type of storm system will affect the Carolinas over the next 24 hours or so. An area of low pressure will develo; along an old frontal boundary and push just to our south tomorrow. This is a pretty moisture-laden system, and lots of rain will spread through the Southeast.
This is really looking to be one of those systems that the heaviest rain amount will probably stay just east and south of Charlotte and the Triad. With that said, I still expect most spots to see a period of nice, steady rains. I don't have a lot of confidence in overall rain amounts, but in general, the lightest amounts will occur in the northwest Piedmont with the amounts getting higher as you head east and south of I-85 and I-77. It looks like the rain will spread in tonight and last for a good chuck of tomorrow.
We will have an in-situ wedge in place as well...again harkening to a cold weather pattern. Highs Wednesday will have a hard time making it into the low to mid 70s. In fact, some spots could spend most of the day in the 60s.
First of all, we had a great time on vacation. It was absolutely wonderful....really nice to unplug, spend time with my family, and relax. I will try to get the pictures uploaded and share some of them with you in the coming days.
Now, on to the tropics. There are two tropical waves out in the Atlantic Ocean. It is interesting to note that most modeling develops one or both of these waves. What is even more interesting is that it looks like the overall upper air pattern in the Atlantic is one that could leave the U.S. East coast open to potential trouble. The 6z and 12z GFS as well as the 12z European bring a well-developed tropical system to the Carolina coast around the 20th of August (see below).
Now, this is still out in fantasy-land, but I think the overall idea of tropical development with those waves is a good one, and I think the idea of the U.S. East coast being open to potential trouble (especially if it is the second tropical wave the develops) has merit. Something to watch in the coming days....
Some scattered showers and storms are firing in portions of the region. An isolated severe storm is possible, but I am not anticipating big severe weather problems.
I will try to throw up a more detailed post later...maybe some interesting possibilities in the tropics....
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