11pm Update...

Well, it looks like the eyewall replacement cycle is just now finishing up. Dean's ERC did not follow the same exacts steps many ERCs follow. At any rate, the inner eyewall has deteriorated and the outer eyewall is now the dominant eyewall, and the "new eye" is 25 miles in diameter based on recon. Often times, after these cycles are completed, hurricanes go through strengthening, and that is certainly possible tonight.

Dean has been wobbling back and forth a bit on its generally WNW track. As it stands now, Jamaica still looks to take a significant hit from Dean tomorrow.

I just finished listening to the Jamaican Prime Minister address the country over the radio. I think the country is dealing with some residents who are skeptical that Dean is actually coming. Again, our thoughts and prayers remain with those folks.

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6:30 pm Dean update...

Dean is looking very healthy this evening. The hurricane finished and eyewall replacement cycle earlier in the day, and unless the system gets dry air from Hispanola involved in its circulation, I think Dean will become a Category 5 hurricane this evening or tonight.

A new recon flight will arrive in the system around 7:30pm or so...we will know more then.

Jamaica looks to take a brutal hit from Dean. Keep them in your thoughts and prayers...

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11pm Advisory

Dean is a solid Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 145mph and a central pressure of 937mb.

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10:15pm Dean Update...

Recon plane is still in the hurricane, but so far, they have found the pressure has dropped to 936mb with sustained winds close to 145mph. Dean is obviously looking extremely healthy this evening, and I am very worried about Jamaica. It still looks like the island could take a beating from the storm by Sunday.

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Category 4 Dean

Dean is indeed going through significant strengthening this evening, and as of the 8pm advisory, the pressure has dropped to 946mb and the winds are now sustained at 135mph...Category 4 intensity. The system is truly impressive and beautiful on satellite. Recon is still in the system, and I think further strengthening will continue to occur this evening.

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Dean 8pm Update..

Looks like Dean could be bombing out this evening. In other words, the hurricane looks like it is going through some major intensification. A recon plane is in the system now....more later this evening.

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Dean is now a Category 3

HURRICANE DEAN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 18

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
145 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2007

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPDATE THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF HURRICANE DEAN TO 110 KNOTS BASED ON FLIGHT LEVEL WIND
DATA OF 124 KNOTS JUST MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT. THE FORECAST INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD
ACCORDINGLY.  THIS ADVISORY SUPERSEDES THE INTERMEDIATE 2 PM AST
PUBLIC ADVISORY.

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10pm Tropical Update...

Dean continues to slowly organize this evening. There is some dry air arching from the west side of the system all of the way around to the northeast side, but it is not getting entrained into the core of the system. The outflow looks very healthy in all quadrants, and there is some deep convection near the center. In short, the system seems poised to continue some strengthening overnight and into tomorrow morning.

Dean is bearing down on the Lesser Antilles. You can watch Dean on the radar here.

Computer modeling remains pretty consistent. Some runs of the GFDL model earlier were eye-opening....brining a Category 4 or 5 Dean into the Central Gulf and headed for a likely Louisiana landfall. However, the models remain fairly tightly-clustered this evening.

Dean will rake through the Lesser Antilles in the morning, then likely directly affect Jamaica this weekend. After that, a Yucatan landfall looks like a high probability, then off toward northern Mexico or Texas. However, this all depends on the strength of a ridge to Dean's north, and it would only take a slight weakness in that ridge to allow for a path more toward the central Gulf coast.

Dean will be an interesting system to watch. It sure looks like it will become a major hurricane, and it will likely have multiple landfalls. Stay tuned!

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Hurricane Dean

Well, I am back from the beach and will be back in the saddle at work later today. I wanted to make a quick post regarding Dean this morning. By the way, Erin is now ashore in Texas.

Dean is now a hurricane, and the system looks to steadily strengthen as it heads into the Caribbean. At this point, almost all modelling is clustered around a track across the Caribbean and into the Yucatan Peninsula. After that, the system would likely track toward northern Mexico or possibly southern Texas. I am not ready to make a call yet as I am just getting a look at all of the data this morning after being away for a few days.

Below is a visible satellite image of Dean this morning. Also, a recon plane will be in the system later today.

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Tropical Update...

Our tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is looking healthy, and this will probably get classified as a tropical depression within the next 36 hours or so. I am fairly confident that this thing will not get re-curved out into the open Atlantic, and most modelling takes the system into the Caribbean by next weekend. We will certainly keep watching it.

I love tracking tropical systems, and I certainly think there will be one to track this week. However, I will be spending some time with my family at the beach Monday through Wednesday. We are trying a new location this time, and I will let you know how it goes after I get back. I am really looking forward to these few days away. It has been a hectic couple of months, and it will be nice to let the mind unwind and spend some much-needed time with my family. I will not even have access to a television while we are gone, and I am actually excited about that. I just want to 'unplug' for a little while.

Everyone have a great week. My next post will not be until probably Thursday, and I am sure by the time I get back we will have a nice tropical system to track.

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