>> Saturday, August 18, 2007
Well, it looks like the eyewall replacement cycle is just now finishing up. Dean's ERC did not follow the same exacts steps many ERCs follow. At any rate, the inner eyewall has deteriorated and the outer eyewall is now the dominant eyewall, and the "new eye" is 25 miles in diameter based on recon. Often times, after these cycles are completed, hurricanes go through strengthening, and that is certainly possible tonight.
Dean has been wobbling back and forth a bit on its generally WNW track. As it stands now, Jamaica still looks to take a significant hit from Dean tomorrow.
I just finished listening to the Jamaican Prime Minister address the country over the radio. I think the country is dealing with some residents who are skeptical that Dean is actually coming. Again, our thoughts and prayers remain with those folks.