Full Saturday Evening Post...

It is a calm weather evening around here. We had the afternoon cumulus field develop as expected today, and those cumulus clouds will fade away quickly with the loss of daytime heating this evening. We will again see a clear sky tonight with lows in the low to mid 60s. There are lots of showers and storms off to our west over the Plains and Mississippi Valley, but as I mentioned, we will remain dry tonight.














For the past couple of days, our highs have been running a few degrees below most model guidance. So, I will go with the lower side of guidance for highs for our Father's Day and forecast mainly upper 80s. If you would like to see that text model data for Charlotte, click below. In a future blog post I will explain what that means....

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getall.pl?sta=KCLT

It looks like some clouds will begin to spread in here by Monday afternoon in advance of a weakening cold front. After dragging my feet, I now have gone ahead and put in shower and storm chances for Tuesday. It looks like that front will make it in here to provide the necessary mechanism to get the showers and storms going.

Beyond Tuesday, there is some uncertainty as to what happens with that decaying front. Will it shift to our south?....Will it wash out overhead?? Both are possibilities, so I have left a small chance for a shower or storm in Wednesday and Thursday.

It looks like a couple of disturbances will slide in here around Friday and Saturday, so I am mentioning shower and storm chances those days.

The heat will build as the week progresses. I think we will be looking at low to mid 90s for highs around here by the second half of the work week. Check out the map below.
















The shaded colors on that map are showing the temperature at 850mb, or about 5000 feet above the Earth's surface. In general, the warmer temperatures there are, the warmer our temperatures here on the ground are, and vice versa.

Those are some pretty warm 850mb temps nosing in here from the west....that is why I think the late-week heat is coming.

On to the tropics where there have been some flare-up of showers and storms at times with a tropical wave northeast of the Windward Islands at times today. Upper level winds are not overly favorable for development right now, but we will keep watching that area. A couple of computer models are still hinting at development coming from that region over the next few days.

Moving ahead with my on-air block as I am typing this...have a great evening, and God bless!

Read more...

Saturday Evening Post Ahead

In the office and about to head into my television live block...first weathercast for me hits at 5:01.

I have completed the evening forecast package, and I will hash it out with you here soon. Check back later this evening...

Read more...

Saturday morning....

Good morning! Lots of sun out there this morning. It looks like lows ranged from the upper 50s to mid 60s in most spots.

Lots of sun is on the way today with highs in the upper 80s to possibly near 90.

It appears I will need to amend my thinking for mid-week next week. It looks like the GFS will wind up being right after all with bringing a weakening cold front in here by around Tuesday. The European model is now indicating that likely happening as well. So, it looks like some scattered showers and storms around at times next work week, from Tuesday on.

OK, time for breakfast. The smallest Easts are hungry. I am usually the one who fixes breakfast in our house (wife usually handles lunch and supper). So, off to make some of my world-famous scrambled eggs with cheese.

I will be in the weather office this afternoon. I am on my normal evening weekend shift today, so my on-air block will begin at 5pm. I will have a full blog discussion posted later this afternoon that deals with all of the issues ahead with the forecast and the tropics.

Read more...

Western North Carolina Earthquake

If you have not heard, here is the information on the minor earthquake in western North Carolina last night.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/uspaad.php

Read more...

Air Quality

Oh, and I need to mention that today is a Code Orange air quality day for Charlotte with a count of 101. The count today for the Triangle region is 82.

In rather stagnant weather patterns, such as the one we will be on for at least the next several days, it is easy to develop these bad air quality days. I suspect we will have a few more bad air quality days over the next week or so.

Below is a list of recommended actions from the North Carolina Division of Air Quality to help out with our air quality when we have Code Orange, Red, or Purple days.

-Limit daytime driving
-Limit vehicle idling
-Refuel vehicles after dusk
-Don't "top off" your gas tank
-Avoid congested periods
-Use water-based paints
-Use transit or car pool
-Bike or walk for short trips
-Use newest/best maintained car
-Combine trips and share rides
-Postpone using gasoline mowers
-Barbecue without starter fluid

Read more...

Heat begins to take hold...

You can certainly tell we are getting deeper into summer. Now, you might say "summer doesn't officially begin until next week." While that is correct, us meteorologists always sort of consider "meteorological summer" to be the months of June, July, and August. So, in my mind, summer has already begun.

At any rate, it is feeling more and more like summer, and our weather forecast is looking more and more like summer. We are getting into that time of year where storm systems and cold front are rather hard to come by around the southeast. So, the weather over this part of the country will be basically dry and warm through the weekend and into early next work week.

We still have the forecast issue of whether or not a cold front will slip in here for the mid-week period next week. Here is a look at some of the model data. And by the way, my intentions are for this blog to many times contain a more technical discussion of the weather. Please feel free to ask questions if you have any at any time.

OK, here is the 0z run of the GFS for 8pm next Tuesday...

And here is the 06z GFS run for the same time...

Other computer model data keeps that front off to our north and northwest...such as the European model. Why? Well, the European is not as deep with an upper air trough over the northeastern US as the GFS is. Therefore, it does not drive that front as far south as the GFS does. Below is the European 500mb chart for 12z Tuesday (8am Tuesday) and the 500mb 6z GFS chart from the same time...

My forecast right now if sort of a compromise. I do increase the cloud cover Tuesday through Friday next week, but I still am not including any rain chanes in the forecast. I tend to lean more toward the European solution due to the fact that cold fronts are harder and harder some come by as we get into late June.

What about the tropics? Well, all is still quiet today. There are still a few tropical waves out in the Atlantic Ocean, but none of them are organizing themselves at this point. The Canadian model is still hinting at some development of one of those waves early next week, but that remains to be seen as of yet.

Putting the finishing touches on my live block here...then some ham and cheese sandwiches for lunch.

Read more...

Good morning!

In the office this morning pouring over all of the new data and getting things ready for my on-air shift, which begins at 11:00am. Temperatures warming nicely this morning with 70s for most at the 9am hour.

It was a pleasant morning today. The CLT airport got down to 58, and Albemarle got down to 54. I will put a full post on a little later discussing the forecast issues ahead of us.

By the way, last night was a better one in the East household. Turns out Grace has an upper respiratory infection. She got her medicine yesterday, and she slept much better....and so did the rest of us!

More in a bit...

Read more...

Severe clear...

After lots of severe weather Saturday, Sunday, and Monday, and then all of the issues with Alberto later Tuesday through Wednesday morning, we are enjoying calm weather today. I know those of us here in the weather office are welcoming the opportunity to catch our breath a little bit.

Very quiet weather around here for the next few days. We will enjoy fairly pleasant humidity values today and Friday, but dewpoints will be on the rise by the weekend, making it more unfomfortable with highs back in the lower 90s.

The GFS (one of the American computer models, linked on the right) wants to stall a weakening cold front out near our area mid-week next week, bringing us some shower and storm chances. Below is the surface image for 8pm Wednesday on the 12z GFS. Click on the image to enlarge it.












Some of the other medium-range computer model data does not bring that front in here. The deeper we get into June and July, the more skeptical I am about fronts actually making it in here. So, for the moment, I am just bringing down our mid-week highs next week into the upper 80s and mentioning more in the way of cloud cover.

As for the tropics, all is quiet. No organized activity out there to make note of; just a couple of weak tropical waves east of the Windward Islands. The Canadian model (which was the first model to pick up on the development of Alberto) is hinting that one of those waves could try to develop later this week or early next week and head up close to Bermuda.













It looks like that idea has some support from another couple of models, so we will watch that. But, even it that does occur, it should not affect the US.

Read more...

Good morning!

Lots of sun out there this morning....temperatures are already in the 70s in most spots at the 9am hour. A quick look at the dewpoints this morning indicates that a drier airmass is indeed moving into our area. Most of our dewpoints are in the 50s right now, and they should even drop some more as we progress through the day.

It will be warm today, but with the lower humidity values in place, it won't feel too bad at all.

I am on a little less sleep today than usual. Our youngest daugther (1 year old) seems to be battling some teeth and possibly ear issues, and she was up basically all night last night. And you know what that means....everybody in the house hardly sleeps...especially my poor wife. Grace (said youngest daughter) seems to be feeling better this morning, but the East household was certainly a little groogy this morning...

I will have a full post online a little later dealing with any forecast issues we have coming up...

Read more...

Birthday Time...

As you might have seen on our airwaves today, or over in Jeff's blog, today is the 4th anniversary of News 14 Carolina in Charlotte. I joined the team in September of last year, and it has been a great experience so far. A 24-hour local news station is a great concept for the fast-paced and ever-changing lives we lead nowadays. It is not easy for everybody to make a point and sit down to watch a "5:00 newscast." We have the advantage of being there for you 24 hours a day, so you can get your news, weather, and sports at your convenience.

As for the weather side of News 14 Carolina, the work environment is truly a dream for a meteorologist. We can provide you with weather coverage like no other station in the market. It is what we are here to do, and it is an honor that you invite us into your homes and trust us to deliver that crucial information.

Thanks so much for watching News 14 Carolina. If you ever have any suggestions or comments, please feel free to let us know. To email all of us here in the weather office, just send a note to:

weatherontheones@news14.com

Read more...

Rain totals...

Here is a list of some rain totals from the Alberto rain event. Some of these totals were received before the rain actually stopped, so the storm totals are even a bit higher.

Wadesboro: 5.10"
Hoffman (Richmond County): 4.75"
Oakboro: 4.50"
Concord: 3.70"
Monroe airport: 2.68"
Stanly airport" 2.01"
Charlotte airport: 1.75"
Gastonia airport: 1.72"
Shelby airport: 0.11"

Check out that Shelby rain total. Unfortunately, for our friends in Cleveland county, the western edge of the heavier rain amounts only made it to Gaston county.

We have high pressure nosing in here from the west now, and that will provide us with a couple of nice days tomorrow and Friday. Look for relatively comfortable humidity values as well as lots of sun and highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Heat will build by the weekend with highs back in the lower 90s and muggier conditions.

By the way, Alberto is not finished. It will provide gusty winds to coastal North Carolina and Virginia this afternoon and this evening as it heads out to sea. Winds could gust to 60 or 70mph.

Read more...

Flash flooding

The downside to all of this rain is the flash flooding that is occurring. Wadesboro has received over 5 inches of rain.

Travis Burgess, one of our viewers, reported that 4.5" of rain has fallen near Oakboro, and that water was running over the roadway in downtown Norwood earlier this morning.

Also, flooding is occurring in the Pee Dee Wildlife Reserve in Anson county.

Keep those reports coming. You can post in the comments section below or you can email to

weatherontheones@news14.com

Read more...

Welcome rain...

Almost every square inch of the viewing area has seem some good, soaking rains. All of this is extremely beneficial. However, flash flood warnings continue for eastern sections of our viewing area. So, be aware of that.

If any of you have backyard rain guages, I would love to hear what rain total you received. If you have that info, please post it in the "Comment" section below this post, or you can email it to me.

I will compile a list of rainfall totals and post it here later today.....

Read more...

Alberto's Rains...

Some good, soaking rains are pushing into the viewing area tonight, and I know that is a welcome sight to just about everyone around here. If all continues to pan out as it appears right now, this will be exactly the kind of rain we have been needing for so long. Here's hoping we can pile up some healthy totals.

However, with that said, some river and stream flooding could become an issue by morning. So, be sure and pay attention to that, as some river and creek beds could become pretty full.

After a lot of hours in the weather office Saturday and Sunday, I have re-charged the batteries and bit now after a couple of days off. I am back in the saddle tomorrow. Time to catch some sleep....will be nice to hear that rain on the roof tonight....

Read more...

Sunday early afternoon update...

A couple of items on the table today...

First of all, things are hating up again today. Gastonia was already at 88 at the noon hour. Sure looks like at least lower 90s everywhere for highs...

The SPC maintains a slight risk for severe weather for our area this afternoon and into tonight. Looks like the cumulus field is beginning to go up over the mountains as well as the upstate of Georgia and South Carolina as I am typing this.

http://weather.cod.edu/satellite/1km/Carolinas.gif

We will have to see when exactly thunderstorms will fire around our viewing area. But when they do form, they will probably be very similar to the storms we saw yesterday evening. Look for lots of lightning, large hail possibilities, and possibly some damaging winds. An isolated tornado could even be possible. Keep it tuned to News 14 Carolina for all of the deatials through the afternoon and evening...

Also, TD1 has strengthened into our first tropical storm of the season...Alberto. The low level center of the system is better organized this afternoon, but the deep convection is still off to the east of the center. There are some interesting forecast track possibilities with this system, and I will hopefully get into that in this space later today.

Have a great afternoon! Time for lunch with the family, then into the office. God bless...

Read more...

Active Saturday Evening

Thanks to all of you who phoned in and emailed in storm reports and photos! They are a TREMENDOUS help to us during times of severe weather.

Numerous reports of hail to the size of quarters and even golf balls came in. We also had several wind damage reports, especially over southern Cabarrus county.

It seems like that frontal boundary draped into our area at just the right time to ignite active thunderstorms around our region.

Will try to get some rest before tomorrow as we could possibly do it all over again in some spots....

Read more...