Friday

>> Friday, July 25, 2008

Last night, Jeff and I were discussing how the latest runs of our in house RPM model (Stormcast) had been showing some clouds moving in overnight. I think we both sort of found it a somewhat odd idea, and I continued to go with a clear to mostly clear forecast for last night. Oops. Mid and high level clouds did roll in overnight, and that kept our low temperatures up higher than forecast. Instead of lower 60s, we are in the upper 60s in many spots. Still a pretty comfortable morning, but not down to that really comfortable range I was expecting.

The clouds will be a tricky forecast today. They will definitely be hard to shake for a while this morning, but I think sunshine will likely work in as the day unfolds. Humidity values should still be pretty low today, assuming the clouds erode away as anticipated.

The tropics are pretty quiet. Our tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic continues to have very little convection with it, so there are no immediate signs of development.

On another note, some of Jayden's friends at church had gotten haircuts this summer, and Jayden had really been wanting to get hers cut. To this point, all we had really done with her is have the dead ends cut off....no real trimming of length. Well, we gave in and decided to let her do it. Her hair is now roughly shoulder-length, and I have to say, I like it. The downside is that it seems we went from having a 5 year old to having an 8 year old....what a difference it makes!

We have another morning of swimming lessons this morning, then a quick bite of lunch and into the weather office this afternoon. Enjoy your day! Remember, the 'Quick Hits" section above is my Twitter feed...I will post thoughts on there from time to time. Also, while the NHC is no longer issuing advisories on Dolly, the HPC is putting out their normal statements on it, and it is updating on the RSS feed to the right.

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Thursday

>> Thursday, July 24, 2008

Drier air is filtering into the region this morning. The NC mountains have temps in the 50s.

Around the Piedmont, it will be warm this afternoon, but humidity values will be much lower. Also, the air should be a bit cleaner today, so all in all, not a bad at all.

I will bring back in the chance of a few storms over the weekend.

Thanks to all of you who relayed your severe weather reports to us yesterday. Greatly appreciated!

My oldest daughter is in the middle of her two weeks of swimming lessons. The lessons are outside, and let me tell you, the heat and humidity was pretty miserable Monday and Tuesday morning, even though it was from 10am to 11am. Looking forward to a break from the humidity this morning!

Enjoy the quiet weather day. I don't think there will be any complaints back in the weather office!

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Active Day Ahead...

>> Wednesday, July 23, 2008

We will see lots of showers and storms through the day. Already this morning, a ribbon of showers and storms has fired from near Charlotte up I-85 toward the Triad. The atmosphere appears set for numerous showers and storms today. Some will likely be severe...keep it tuned to News 14 Carolina through the day and into the night. I am in the big chair through the afternoon until I pass the baton to Mr. Crum.

I will try to keep the new Twitter feed above active through the afternoon.

Dolly is strengthening this morning as it nears landfall. Landfall will be very close to the Rio Grand River. Click on the radar below for an updated image....

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Tuesday...

>> Tuesday, July 22, 2008

New video is docked above....

Looks like Dolly will move into Mexico tomorrow. Some flooding likely in the Rio Grande Valley. Still watching the tropical wave near the Cape Verde Islands today. Remember the RSS feeds on the right for Dolly and Cristobal....

A few big storms yesterday...I think we will see some more strong storms this afternoon.

Tomorrow looks like an active weather day with numerous showers and storms.

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Midnight Monday morning....

>> Sunday, July 20, 2008

Just a quick note here....from what I am seeing on the satellite data tonight, I think Dolly is poised for some significant intensification. I think a Texas landfall is looking more likely, and I think this could go through a rapid intensification cycle.

It appears to me we will likely see the center redevelop northward under the very deep convection currently occurring. Will be interesting to watch.

We have arrived at my 'weekend'.....so, I don't know how frequent posts will be Monday and Tuesday. But I will try my best to keep my ideas fresh on here.

As for the official NHC products, check the NHC RSS feed on the right....

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Sunday Night....

Cristobal continues to pull away from the Outer Banks tonight. Behind this system, we will have some downsloping winds tomorrow, and that will lead to a hot day with highs in the upper 90s across much of the Piedmont, especially the southern Piedmont.

A cold front drops in here mid-week and brings some showers and storms. Wednesday looks like the day with the highest overall rain chance.

Elsewhere in the tropics, Dolly will cross the Yucatan tomorrow and emerge in the southern Gulf. To me, it looks like Dolly will be able to likely strengthen into a hurricane before its second landfall in northern Mexico or south Texas. And it might strengthen to more than a Category 1 hurricane.

Please note I have RSS feeds set up on the right-hand column updating the NHC products on Cristobal and Dolly.

A massive tropical wave is emerging off of Africa, and that will likely become another tropical system later in the week. That one might try to make a run toward the U.S. around the very first part of August.

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The obligatory title......Hello Dolly!

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Coastal Radar

Here is a radar to watch Cristobal this morning into early this afternoon. Click on the image to get an updated radar.

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