Excellent September Weather...

Beautiful September weather will continue to unfold for us right through the weekend into the first couple of days of next work week. Look for 80s for highs and upper 50s to lower 60s for lows.

A sharp cold front will plunge through the central and eastern US next week and likely move through the Carolinas by Wednesday night and Thursday. Look for the chance of a few showers and storms with the frontal passage, and then we will likely experience the coolest temperatures so far this season by around Friday next week.

Tropics...

Katia is making it's closest pass to the US this morning and will race northeast across the north Atlantic Ocean, possibly impacting parts of Europe as a strong non-tropical low by early next week.

Maria is impacting the Lesser Antilles today, and should be near the Bahamas Monday. While it could be close, the general idea for Maria is a turn to the north and northeast just prior to making a US landfall. We will need to watch it though.

Nate is in the southern Gulf of Mexico, and it looks likely now that it will head west into Mexico.

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Fantastic weather... tropics very active....

Our weather will be fantastic right through the weekend with lots of sun, warm afternoon highs in the 80s and comfortably cool nights with lows in the lower 60s (upper 50s in some spots). Great stuff.

It is looking more likely now that Nate will head toward Mexico as opposed to up in our direction, and if that is the case, our next rain chance will probably not come until about one week from today.

Tropics...

Nate is a tropical storm in the southern Gulf of Mexico. The models are still split on the eventual track of Nate....some bring it north to the central Gulf coast while most of the modeling takes Nate west into Mexico. I am leaning toward the Mexico solution as of now, but that's not set in stone.

Katia is behaving as expected and is tracking between the Outer Banks and Bermuda. Katia will only cause some increased surf and rip currents for the East coast.

Maria will likely wind up being pretty close to the Bahamas by Monday. However, this system is strongly looking like one that will curve north and northeast prior to impacting the US, but it's a touch to soon for complete confidence in that scenario.

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Nice weather ahead... tropics very active...

Drier air has slipped into the western half of the Carolinas, and that means for places along the I-85 corridor on up through the foothills and mountains, some fantastic weather is ahead. Piedmont highs in the drier air region today will be in the upper 70s today and near 80 tomorrow.

We will likely remain dry through the weekend with highs in the 80s.

Tropics...

Lots to discuss here....the easy one first.

Katia is making the turn to the north and then northeast and will avoid any land areas...good news.

TD 14 will likely become Maria today, and this will need to be watched as a potential East coast threat later next week.

In the southern Gulf of Mexico, a disturbance is slowly organizing and could become a classified system. The models are split on this one...some take it west to Mexico...some bring it north to the central Gulf coast. Too soon to tell, but I would slightly lean toward the Gulf coast solution at this point. If that is correct, some rain from that system would move into the Southeast by early next week.

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Showers and storms...

Showers and storms will again highlight the forecast today. Severe weather will be an issue for some spots....isolated tornadoes and damaging winds are the biggest threats.

A new Tornado Watch is out until 2pm and covers the Triad, Triangle, Wilmington, and Grand Strand areas along the coast.

Here are the counties included in the watch...

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Wet conditions...

A wet scenario will unfold for us over the next couple of days. We have the remnants of Lee pumping lots of deep, tropical moisture up into our region. At the same time, a potent cold front is slowly approaching from the northwest.

These features will combine to bring waves of rain and a few storms to our viewing area today through tomorrow. There will likely be some flooding issues develop in time, and much of the region is under a Flash Flood Watch until at least Wednesday morning.

The threat of severe weather will also have to be closely monitored, especially tomorrow afternoon. A few brief tornadoes will be possible if some areas.

There will also be a huge difference in temperature tomorrow from north to south around the region....places near the VA border might be in the low to mid 70s while places closed to SC are well into the 80s.

Katia...

I feel more confident this morning that Katia will remain east of the Outer Banks, and the prospects are looking better that this will turn out to sea before hitting any part of the US. However, we will still need to watch for any surprises.

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