Saturday morning....

Here is a really nice shot this morning from up in Haywood county....


I really appreciate all of you checking in here with me. I sincerely thank all of you for all of the kind words over the past couple of weeks. I am glad folks out there find some enjoyment from my blog and videos. I enjoy doing them, and I will continue to churn them out!

Storm is pulling away from our region today and is really dumping the snow now off to our north. This was a widespread, disruptive winter storm.

Here in NC, looks like many folks in the mountains got over a foot, and the original forecast for the Triad I put out on the air Thursday morning of 5-10" looks like it did pretty well.

In the Charlotte region, Iredell and Cleveland counties got a good amount of wintry precip, Gaston county wound up with hours of freezing rain, and Charlotte itself and points eastward didn't get much, aside from some sleet mixing in from time to time. All in all, the heavier precip from the system exited the southern Piedmont before temperatures aloft cooled enough for any significant snow.

This is not a function of cold air chasing the precip. This is a case of the track of the 850mb low winding up being a bit too far north to give the southern Piedmont any significant snow. The farther north that low aloft tracked, the warmer the temps were about 5000 feet or so, so we wound up melting snow before it reached the ground. Temps here at the ground were plenty cold enough for snow.

At any rate, time to move on. As accumulation maps get put together, I will share them, probably in my video Monday morning.

Next system due in here around Christmas Eve, and it still has at least some wintry potential somewhere around the region. Will watch it over the weekend and talk much more about it when we get back into a normal routine Monday morning.

Be careful out there. Roads in the spots that saw snow are a mess this morning. And black ice will likely be a significant problem for Sunday and possibly Monday morning as well....again, mainly for the spots that have snow on the ground.

Enjoy your weekend....

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Friday evening....

Well, the snow is really piling up in much of the Triad area. This will indeed big a very significant for much of the Triad region.

In the Charlotte region, a mixture of sleet and freezing rain, with some snow mixed in, has been prevalent across Gaston, Cleveland, southern Iredell, and northern Meck counties. In northern Cleveland county and northern Iredell county, the snow is really piling up.

For the rest of the evening, a band of heavier precip will likely develop in a general west-east fashion somewhere across western NC and possibly extreme northern SC. Assuming this band does develop, that is when the Charlotte areas portion of I-85 would have the best chance of seeing some snow. But I have to tell you....confidence is low from where I sit.

To see snow, the southern Piedmont will have to have this persistent warm layer of air aloft shift southward. Most modeling has indicated that will happen this evening, and I am pretty sure it will. However, the band of precip must develop as expected as well.

As expected, this system has produced a very tight gradient between significant snow and not much snow. Again, lots of snow is on the ground as I type in northern Cleveland county and northern Iredell county.

Let's see how the rest of this system plays out.

Remember, it is not even winter yet. I think this is just one of multiple wintry weather chances the region will see.

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Mid-morning thoughts....

All right, I have cut a video, but it is having trouble rendering here on the home computer. Hopefully it will work.

In the meantime, here is the rough accumulation map I drew up. There is big bust potential carved into this system both ways. This is a system where a lot of the precip type and accumulations will depend on precipitation rates, which is directly related to dynamics. So, literally, big differences will likely occur from neighborhood to neighborhood. This map is just a rough estimate....there will be higher and lower amounts in each area outlined.

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Friday morning....

I am out of the office this morning, but I am pouring over all of the data this morning and will have some updated thoughts for you in a bit. Triad area....looks big. Charlotte is again right on the fence.....6z GFS soundings are a touch warm, but the 6z NAM sounding were surprisingly cold.

More in a bit....

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All right.....

0z NAM is in house, and the 0z GFS is rolling as I type. Time for some accumulation ideas.

For the Triad, this looks big. The one concern that I still have for this area, and I outlined this on my video this morning, is that it still looks like we could lose moisture overnight Friday night in the snow growth region. If that occurs, then the precip would become primarily sleet, which would cut down on total accumulation amounts.

However, with that said, this sure has the makings in the Triad and foothills of a big winter storm. For the Triad itself, I am going to stick with my 5-10" outlook that I used on the air this morning. However, I think many spots will likely end up in the upper end of that range. I feel pretty confident that there will be some parts of the Triad and northern foothills region that see over a foot of accumulation. Some sleet could become involved, and again, the longer any period of sleet lasts, the lower the total accumulation will be. But this looks like a significant winter storm for the Triad viewing area.

The outlook for the Charlotte region remains considerably more difficult. I have to say...I still have little confidence in exactly how this plays out. It looks like as the precip initially moves in, there could be a brief period of rain, but then many folks will likely see snow for a while. Then as temperatures aloft warm, it gets even trickier, and anything from sleet to some snow or rain (even freezing rain, as temps could be close to or below freezing) could fall. The precip will then likely wind down as another period of snow.

I will say from just east of Charlotte and points east through Union, Anson, and Richmond counties, total snow and sleet accumulations on the order of a slushy dusting to possibly 2". For portions of Gaston, Cleveland, Lincoln, and Iredell counties (especially the northern part), total snow and sleet accumulations of 2-5", but especially as you head into Cleveland county, amounts could certainly be higher than that. I would group the western Upstate of SC in the same category as these areas just west of Charlotte.

Now, let me say this. There will be tremendous dynamics involved with this system, and there is a strong chance that a healthy deformation band will set up and move through portions of the region. Snowfall rates will likely be impressive in this band, and that will almost certainly provide some higher accumulations.

This (the Charlotte region forecast) is about as tough as it gets in terms of accumulation forecasts. Like I said, confidence is low here. Many, many Piedmont locations will likely see temps at about 5000' within roughly a degree of freezing, one way or another. With that being the case, any heavier areas of precip that moves through could kick over to snow, and for many spots around the Charlotte area, it looks like an extended period of time where you could change precip types time and time again. On the other hand, if your back yard avoids some of the heavier precip rates, you could wind up with virtually no accumulation while it is a different story only a few miles away.

**Just got a good look at the 0z GFS....looks colder for the southern Piedmont and Upstate with the model finally picking up on excellent cold air damming. Will see if this trend hold in the morning.**

There is how it looks now. I will take a fresh look at things in the morning and make any necessary adjustments.

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Quick hit....

Have had a ton of things to do around the house this afternoon, but I have been popping in to the computer often to check things. I have no real changes to my thoughts. Seems the GSP NWS is playing things conservatively around the I-85 corridor in their area. That is fine....you don't want to put a big number out there and then have to back away from it.

I will delve into this later this evening and hopefully put out specific accumulation ideas. For the Triad, this still looks like a major winter storm. It is trickier for Charlotte and GSP.

For those following the models, I think the 12z NAM did not handle the layer about 5000' (850mb) very well, and that made the whole atmospheric profile likely too warm. The latest NAM model has come in much colder and closer to what I think could happen.

Again, more ideas this evening....check back!

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Major winter storm in the works.....

Latest modeling trends continue to indicate the potential for a significant winter storm around the Carolinas tomorrow into Saturday morning.

Still some questions to work out dealing with specifics, especially moisture up in the 'snow growth' region Friday night, but all in all, this looks like a pretty big deal along and north and west of I-85.

At this point, I expect precip to move in tomorrow morning around Charlotte and at the latest by early afternoon for the Triad and Triangle. Initially, a lot of the precip will be snow. However, some warmer air aloft will work in by tomorrow night, and some spots will see a mix of sleet and snow....and possible freezing rain.

I am not yet confident enough for specific amounts....I like to make a call and stick with it unless forced to change. However, I will say again.....along and to the north and west of I-85, this looks like a big-ticket event. Significant accumulations of snow and sleet look likely.

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Quick evening thoughts....

The upcoming potential winter storm is a delicate interaction with northern and southern stream energy combined with cold air damming. If any one facet to that goes awry, so does the potential for a big winter storm.

With that disclaimer said, I see absolutely nothing this evening to sway me from thinking this has the chance to be a big winter storm for the western Carolinas, especially from I-85 north and west. In fact, if the 18z NAM and GFS are correct, this is a big-time winter storm for many places.

We are within 48 hours of the event, so time is running low for wild model swings. However, there will likely be some trending one way or another as we head through Thursday. There is still the chance this could deepen more than currently indicated, in which case the track of the low and snow shield might be father westward than currently indicated. It could also trend the other way though, meaning the snow is farther eastward, but with lower amounts.

But again, all modeling trends today have been toward this being a significant event.

In many spots along I-85, this could begin as a period of snow, then feature a wintry mix before ending as all snow again. But, those dividing lines all entirely depend on the exact track of the low.

I will have lots of information bright and early in the morning. A fresh video will be posted hopefully by 6am.

Have a good night....

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More model guidance favoring a winter storm....

The latest model guidance coming in has continued the overnight trend of ramping up the prospects of a significant bout with wintry weather in portions of the Carolinas. Please refer to the video below....that was before a lot of the latest guidance was in, but it still has value in putting some graphics with what we are talking about.

It is still just a tad too early for any real specifics, but odds are increasing that somebody in the western Carolinas, and possible central NC, will have significant wintry weather Friday into Saturday.

All forms of wintry precip are possible, but this is taking the shape of a classic Gulf of Mexico "Miller A" winter storm. Often times this means there will be areas that see heavy snow, then as you travel eastward, there is a transition zone where mixing of precip types occurs, and then eventually far enough eastward, it is all rain.

Bottom line is people need to pay attention to this one, especially along and north and west of I-85. As always, we are right on the line with this one.

I will try to post some more thoughts later today, and I of course will have full load of information in tomorrow morning's video and blog post.

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Cold air here....weekend wintry weather potential...

Another push of colder, dry air has arrived, and we will be looking at a lot of upper 40s to lower 50s for highs today and tomorrow. We will see sunshine, although it will be filtered by high clouds at times.

All eyes are on our next storm system, which will begin spreading precip into the region Friday and could extend through much of Saturday.

A cold, dry airmass will be in place initially, so some wintry precip is possible as the precip moves in, especially in the cold air damming regions of the western Carolinas. Then, as upper level energy gets involved, many spots could see the precip flip to snow before ending.

All of this is still very much up in the air. Some modeling keeps the best precip confined to the eastern Carolinas. However, I do think odds are that sombody across our region will see some wintry precip Friday into Saturday.....I will keep working on the forecast.

See the video today....lots of graphics to go along with this....

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Cold air coming....weekend storm system potential...

We are squeezing in a mild day today with highs up toward the lower 60s in many Piedmont locations. However, another big push of arctic air is invading the US, and that colder air will settle in here tonight.

Highs tomorrow and Thursday will only be in the upper 40s to lower 50s with lows dipping down toward the upper 20s. Look for lots of sunshine tomorrow and Thursday as well.

Things then get interesting as we head into the weekend. An area of low pressure will ride from the Gulf of Mexico to off of the Carolina coast. The big question mark is whether or not that low will get an influx of energy from the northern stream. Most modeling today is indicating that potential. If that is the case, somebody in the Southeast stands a good chance of seeing some wintry precip, likely snow, over the weekend.

This is still in the question mark category, but odds seem to be increasing that the interior Carolinas could see at least some snow over the weekend. However, if the low doesn't phase with the northern stream, any wintry precip opportunities are quite limited. So we shall see. Stay tuned....

Obviously, tons of good stuff in today's video....give it a look!

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Briefly milder, but plenty of cold coming....

Dense fog out there this morning. We will squeeze in a couple of milder day today and tomorrow before our next plunge of arctic air arrives for Wednesday.

Much of the rest of the month looks cold, and possibly very cold at times. And I still think this pattern is loaded with potential storminess, beginning this weekend. Take a look....

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