Quick evening thoughts....

>> Wednesday, December 16, 2009

The upcoming potential winter storm is a delicate interaction with northern and southern stream energy combined with cold air damming. If any one facet to that goes awry, so does the potential for a big winter storm.

With that disclaimer said, I see absolutely nothing this evening to sway me from thinking this has the chance to be a big winter storm for the western Carolinas, especially from I-85 north and west. In fact, if the 18z NAM and GFS are correct, this is a big-time winter storm for many places.

We are within 48 hours of the event, so time is running low for wild model swings. However, there will likely be some trending one way or another as we head through Thursday. There is still the chance this could deepen more than currently indicated, in which case the track of the low and snow shield might be father westward than currently indicated. It could also trend the other way though, meaning the snow is farther eastward, but with lower amounts.

But again, all modeling trends today have been toward this being a significant event.

In many spots along I-85, this could begin as a period of snow, then feature a wintry mix before ending as all snow again. But, those dividing lines all entirely depend on the exact track of the low.

I will have lots of information bright and early in the morning. A fresh video will be posted hopefully by 6am.

Have a good night....


Ben 7:30 PM  

Gah! I'm right on the border of the accumulation maps and everything as of now... like 1 inch Raleigh, 6 inches where I'm at, and GSO gets like a foot.

Hopefully I don't just miss anything in CH...

Anonymous 11:39 PM  

Hi Matt just want to let you know that i like your blog.keep doing the great work that you are doing.I have A question for South Charlotte for area near highway 51 in south Charlotte would you include this area.As also with a good changes of seeing a major snow event on the weekend??

Anonymous 1:08 AM  

0z run is trending even heavier! good snow hit for charlotte, but just north of us...holy cow lol

Gastonwxman 4:17 AM  

Hey Matt. Looks like the piedmont's now underneath a Winter Storm Watch until 6pm on Sat. :)

Anonymous 5:58 AM  

hey matthew

i see the nws is suggesting 2-4 inches of snow for charlotte in addition to some ice. i wonder if they are down playing accumulation amounts bc of the suggested transition to rain but what would happen if we didnt see that change over. the high seems to be showing signs of becoming stronger and the model runs seem to be colder than before. i noticed they said all rain at first, then a dusting, then minor accum, now 24 inches. the trend seems to be leaning towards heavier amounts with every other model run. what are your thoughts on this?

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