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I am working the Saturday shift at the big 14 today, so I figured I would post up a quick discussion.....
The 'wedge' scenario is in play today, and the result is lots of clouds and cooler temperatures. Highs today should only be in the mid to upper 80s around the region.
Through the southern and western Piedmont into the foothills, the chance of occasional showers and storms today is pretty high. We are in a moisture-packed environment, so some locally heavy rain will be possible.
Tomorrow, I will maintain the risk of a few showers and storms, and it will be a little warmer with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Our next cold front will get close enough to us to being storm chances next week. The front will be a slow mover, and that will mean several days of increased storm chances. Right now, the mid-week period looks to feature the most significant coverage of showers and storms.
A cold front continues to slip south of the region today. Behind that cold front, high pressure, centered over the New England states, will wedge down the eastern side of the mountains and will set up one of our cold air damming (or wedging) scenarios this weekend.
The process begins today with winds switching around out of the northeast. Today will still be fairly hot with highs in the lower 90s, and the chances remain today for a few passing showers or storms.
We will really feel the wedge this weekend. I anticipate lots of clouds and some showers from time to time. There will be some chance of a few storms, but the severe weather threat looks low, and anticipate most of the rain to come from showers as opposed to storms.
It will be significantly cooler this weekend as well with highs Saturday and Sunday in the mid 80s at best for most spots.
Next work week...
Our next cold front will gradually approach from the northwest. Gradually is the operative word here as we might not see the front actually move into the area until Thursday or Friday. Ahead of the front, we will have a broad southeasterly flow off of the Atlantic. This will mean warm temps, humid conditions, and a daily storm chance.
The remnants of Tropical Depression 5 will likely continue to produce lots of rain over parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and western Florida for the next four or five days, as that system will just meander around that region. There is some chance that the deeper moisture associated with that feature could wind up enhancing rain and storm chances in the Carolinas later next work week.
I want to start off by showing a beautiful phenomenon that I personally had never witnessed until yesterday evening. Many thanks to my good friend and neighbor Carrie Campbell for giving me a call to see it, and then getting and sending me some great shots.
The phenomenon appears to be iridescent clouds. Here is what appeared to occur. There were some broken cirrus clouds yesterday evening about 30-40 thousand feet or so off the ground. Then, some big cumulonimbus (thunderstorm) clouds developed vertically until they actually reached and then bowed up the cirrus clouds. The evening sun then hit those cirrus clouds. The result was a breath-taking display....truly one of the most beautiful things I have seen. Here are a few shots Carrie got of the event....be sure and click to see a larger image. **Note, these images have not been altered in any way.**
Many areas along and north of roughly I-40 saw some intense areas of rain and storms yesterday evening, and some 2-3" rain amounts (and locally even higher totals) occurred.
Today, we have a cold front dropping into the area. That will likely trigger scattered storms around the region, and some of the storms will likely produce some damaging wind gusts. Highs today will be in the 90s around the region.
The front will begin to slide south of us tomorrow. I will still mention some chance of showers and storms tomorrow with most highs in the lower side of the 90s.
For the weekend, high pressure will wedge down the eastern side of the mountains, that will likely spell clouds, some cooler temps, and a shower chance at times. Highs will be in the 80s for much of the region Saturday and Sunday.
Next work week, I anticipate a daily chance of a few storms with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Tropics...
Tropical Depression 5 lost its right with shear yesterday and is just a remnant low. However, like I mentioned yesterday, the biggest issue with this system is rain, and some high rain totals are likely in Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and western Florida over the next several days.
There are a couple other tropical waves well out to sea, but no development is imminent.
Our Wednesday forecast is a hot and humid one with highs in the mid to upper 90s and heat index values over 100 and even over 105 at times in some spots. Take it easy out there. I expect there to be the chance of a few late-day storms, and the chances for storms might actually be a little greater this evening.
Tomorrow, a frontal boundary sags into the area from the north, and in turn, our chances for scattered storms increases. It will still be fairly hot though with highs in the mid 90s in many places.
The placement of that front will play a large role in the specifics of our weather Friday into the weekend. At this point, I will back down highs Friday into the upper 80s to around 90 with that front sliding a little farther south. Friday will still feature good chances of scattered showers and storms.
For Saturday, high pressure will wedge down into our area from the north, and we will likely see lots of clouds and the chance of some showers at times with highs in the upper 80s. Look for scattered showers and storms Sunday with highs in the upper 80s.
I will maintain daily scattered storm chances Monday through Wednesday next week with highs in the lower 90s.
TD 5...
Tropical Depression 5 looks pretty unhealthy this morning. There remains at least some chance this could become a tropical storm at some point today. If it does, the name will be Danielle.
TD 5 will likely make a landfall later tomorrow or very early Friday in southeastern Louisiana or Mississippi. The biggest issues with this system will likely be rain for parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida.
The remnants of TD 5 could wind up enhancing our shower and storm at some point late this weekend or early next week.
Yesterday we saw low to mid 90s return to the region. Today, I anticipate a lot of mid to even some upper 90s for highs, and when you factor in the humidity, heat index levels will exceed 100 degrees at times this afternoon.
Just like yesterday, there will likely be a few showers develop, but they will be very limited in nature, and most spots will be dry.
Tomorrow, I will mention a better chance of some showers and storms, mainly from late afternoon into the evening. It will still be hot as well with highs in the mid to even upper 90s again.
A frontal boundary will drop in here from the north Thursday and Friday, and both days will feature good chances of showers and storms. Highs will back down into the low to mid 90s Thursday and lower 90s Friday.
It appears that another one of our cold air damming regimes will set up by Saturday. If that occurs, it will mean cooler temps and some showers at times.
The daily chance of showers and storms will remain high Sunday into early next work week.
Tropics...
The tropical wave out in the Atlantic could get classified as a tropical system at any point, but it is a 'fish storm,' meaning it will turn north in the Atlantic.
Of greater interest is an area of low pressure developing just northwest of the Florida Keys. A lot of modeling really develops this one nicely, and it could become a tropical storm over the next couple of days.
This system will likely head toward the central Gulf coast later this week. Please see today's video, docked above, so lots of details and graphics on this system.
After a nice respite from the heat and humidity over the weekend, we are heading back into higher heat and humidity levels for the new work week. Highs today will be in the low to mid 90s with mid to even upper 90s tomorrow through Thursday. Heat index values during the mid-week period will exceed 100 and 105 degrees at times, and heat advisories will likely be required.
As far as rain goes, only a couple of isolated showers or storms will dot the radar screen today, tomorrow, and probably Wednesday as well. However, the shower and storm chance increases for Thursday, Friday, and the weekend as our next front approaches and likely stalls out somewhere nearby.
Tropics...
The final advisory on Colin was issued Sunday evening.
There are two areas to monitor in the tropics. One is a tropical wave way out in the Atlantic, but even if something develops out of that, it will likely re-curve into the open Atlantic waters.
The second area to watch is near Florida. That area of low pressure will back westward into the Gulf over the next couple of days, and it bears watching.
I am a husband, father of five, and meteorologist. I am a believer in the Lord Jesus Christ and am thankful for all of the Lord's blessings in my life.
"He is not here, but He has been resurrected!... Luke 24:6
