Near record warmth today...freezing rain likely for some Sunday...

>> Friday, December 06, 2013

Please see today's video for all of the details:


Warm today and tomorrow....then big changes for the weekend....

>> Thursday, December 05, 2013

Highs will be way above average today and tomorrow. In fact, some record highs could be challenged across the region tomorrow afternoon.

However, let's get right into the weekend. I anticipate falling temperatures through the day Saturday with some rain at times.

By Sunday, an arctic high pressure will be located over the Northeast, in a classic position for cold air damming. Now, the high will be transient and will lift well off to the north by Sunday night. However, for a period of time, the setup for a wedge is near perfect.

The result of the CAD will be a very cold, raw day Sunday. I have not changed my thinking much here. A significant ice event looks likely in portions of the Virginias, and my confidence has only increased that the NC foothills (especially northern foothills) will deal with at least a period of freezing rain Sunday.

The NAM and Canadian models are the coldest model solutions and push temps below freezing all of the way down to I-40 for an extended period of time Sunday. The GFS and Euro keep the freezing line up near the VA border. The Canadian model is often quite good around here in CAD situations, and I am easing my forecast in the direction of the colder modeling. You also have to keep in mind that the models often under-estimate the cold air a bit in CAD situations too.

Please see the video for much more. One thinking working against the coldest of solutions is that the coldest air will still be west of the mountains as opposed to over the Northeast. Again, please watch the video for more....


Warm finish to the work week, then big changes...

>> Wednesday, December 04, 2013

A warm front has continued to bring some showers to our region through the night, and warmer air behind that front will continue to work into the region. The warmer setup will be most noticeable tomorrow and Friday when lots of  70s work in for highs just ahead of our next cold front.

The incoming system will be a very messy one from the Rockies into the Plains and Mississippi Valley. In fact, this continues to look like a very significant ice storm for parts of Texas, Arkansas, and western Tennessee especially.

Around the Carolinas, we will have falling temps as we get deeper into Saturday with showers at times through the day. Then, as a strong area of high pressure moves from the northern Plains into the Northeast, a cold air damming episode will occur Sunday.

I have no real changes to my thinking I outlined previously. For parts of the Virginias, this could be a pretty significant bout of ice (freezing rain), and depending on the strength of the wedge, I fully expect the potential to be there for a period of some freezing rain in some NC foothills locations at least.

However, there is nothing to anchor that high in the Northeast, so most in NC should wind up with a cold, raw, rainy day Sunday with temps in the 30s.

As I mention in the video, we will not have a ton of confidence until we continue to see this incoming airmass get sampled better as it pulls deeper into North America. And, the modeling often under-estimates the cold air associated with a wedge around here.

As of this typing, the coldest model is the Canadian. Often times it does a nice job around this region with CAD scenarios, so we will see.

Here's today's video:


Warmer temps.... cold air damming episode Sunday...

>> Tuesday, December 03, 2013

See today's video for tons of details about what's ahead, including warmer temperatures working in this week, much colder air arriving Saturday, and a cold air damming episode Sunday.


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