Great weather today!

>> Friday, January 06, 2012

Here is today's edition of the video. I talk about our weekend weather, the major system next week, and plenty of long-term thoughts.

I love cold and snow as much as anybody, but boy, it's sure hard to beat the weather we will see today. Highs will warm into the 60s under full sunshine.....good stuff.

Tomorrow will again be mild, but clouds will be on the increase ahead of a cold front. That front will slip into SC by Sunday morning, and a cold air damming scenario will then unfold for Sunday and Monday. That will mean lots of clouds, cooler temps, and the chance of some showers at times.

It still looks like a powerhouse system will swing through around mid-week. There are still some timing differences, as you might expect, amongst the models, but at this point, I still favor the Tuesday night-Wednesday time period.

This system still looks to be a healthy rain-producer for many in the region.

This will be a cold core upper level low, and I suppose I can't completely rule out somebody in the Southeast as a whole seeing some wet snow flakes, but at this point, I still think that is pretty unlikely due to the overall mildness of the system.

In the longer term, I still see signs of the Arctic Oscillation heading into the negative territory, and there are indications from some modeling of a big ridge going up near Alaska. This still leads me to believe we are stepping toward a more favorable pattern for sustained cold and possible storminess for the second half of January. See the video for much more on this.....


Milder air moving in....

>> Thursday, January 05, 2012

Please see my post below this one that I put up yesterday afternoon. It discusses in greater detail the upcoming pattern change that I think is in the offing.

Here is today's edition of the video...there's a lot of ground covered in there, including lots of talk about the likely pattern change ahead.

For the next couple of days, the big weather story around here is the warming trend. Highs today will top out in the low to mid 50s with lower 60s tomorrow. Really nice stuff. Tomorrow will be a good day to spend a little time outside and maybe get some of those outdoor chores completed.

Clouds will roll in Saturday as a disturbance approaches from the west. Some light rain or a passing shower really looks like it can't be ruled out at any point from Saturday afternoon through the middle of next week. Saturday still looks to feature low to mid 60s for highs, but we return to the low and mid 50s for Sunday.

The next major system will roll through mid-week next week....I think Wednesday is the mostly likely time-frame right now. This system looks like a healthy rain producer across much of the Southeast.

This system looks to be the game-changer in terms of the overall weather pattern. The Arctic Oscillation, which has been strongly in the positive phase thus far this winter, looks to switch to negative, meaning a much better chance for more sustained cold and possibly storminess in the eastern US.

Again, please see the video, and the post right below this one, for much more.


Pattern change....

>> Wednesday, January 04, 2012

The writing appears to be at least mostly on the wall that the big shift in the pattern will occur soon. The final domino to fall could be a storm system that will roll through next week.

For the Winter thus far, we have had a positive AO and NAO, and that has largely kept the Southeast mild. However, as I have been showing in recent videos, the NAO is headed toward at least neutral if not negative, and now it definitely looks like the AO is headed that way too.

For the actual storm system next week, the Canadian model today brings some snow to Tennessee with it, but extrapolating out, it would likely be rain for most east of the mountains. The European and GFS are rain scenarios for most of the region.

You are dealing with a cutoff low, so a track farther north or south is possible than what modeling shows at the moment. However, I would favor the rain scenario for most of the Southeast as being most likely at this moment, but I wouldn't write off some areas somewhere in the region seeing a little something wintry.

However, the bigger story will likely be that as that low deepens as it lifts up the coast, it appears to be the final nail in the coffin of the big +AO pattern we've been in. A big ridge goes up in western North America, and a ridge develops near Greenland.

So, Winter fans, hang in there. There are no guarantees, but it does appear the pattern will be more favorable for at least the chances of wintry weather as we get deeper in January.


Crawling out of the freezer...

Above is today's edition of the video. Give it a look....

It was a frigid start to our Wednesday with lots of teens in the foothills and piedmont and some teens and single digits in the mountains.

It will be a little more tolerable to walk outside today, although still chilly. Highs should be 8-10 degrees warmer than yesterday, and the wind will not be as significant. Lows tonight will be in the 20s.

A significant warming trend will unfold as we head through the rest of the week with some 50s for highs tomorrow and lower 60s by Friday and Saturday.

The GFS keeps us mainly dry Saturday night and Sunday morning as the next system swings through while the Euro and Canadian models continue to indicate a quick-hitting rain chance. I have maintained a shower chance with that system in my forecast this morning.

Next week, another big piece of energy will head to the Southwest US, and when and how that ejects will be tough to nail down. It does looks like another shot of cold air will likely head our way later on next week. See the video for more in depth thoughts on the longer range.



>> Tuesday, January 03, 2012

As of 5am today, the wind chill was 10 in Greensboro, 17 in CLT, and 18 in RDU. The wind chill as -1 in Boone, and the actual air temp was 2 atop Beech Mountain.

A fresh blanket of snow is on the ground in the mountains....this was a widespread 2-4" snow with some spots up to 6." Some snow flurries and snow showers did indeed make it out of the mountains into the foothills, piedmont, and even sandhills last night, and some car tops were whitened in a few spots.

Here's today's video. Tons to talk about!

Today will be cold. Piedmont highs will struggle to briefly make it above freezing, and the foothills will probably stay below freezing all day. In fact, even some piedmont spots will not make it above freezing. Factor in a stiff northwest wind, and wind chill values will be in the teens for much of the day.

Lows tonight will drop into the mid and upper teens for much of the region, assuming the wind relaxes and the sky stays clear.

Tomorrow we rebound into the 40s for highs with 50s by Thursday.

We will probably have some rain move through Saturday night or Sunday.

Tons of uncertainty exists with the forecast for next week. I spend a lot of time on that in today's video, docked above. Give it a look.


Arctic air blowing in...

>> Monday, January 02, 2012

The much-anticipated blast of arctic air continues to settle into the region. Highs today will only make it into the low and mid 40s for most. Add in a west wind gusting to 25 or 30mph, and it's a chilly day.

Lows tonight will settle into the low and mid 20s.

It will be downright cold tomorrow. Highs still struggle to make it toward the mid 30s at most, and when you add in a stiff northwest wind, our wind chill values will be in the 20s at most through the day.

The coldest morning will be Wednesday morning with lows in the upper teens in many spots.

Temps will modify a bit later this week with some 50s for highs Friday and the weekend. However, we will to see more cold air arrive next week. Also, the pattern looks to become stormy again, so we will see if some snow chances materialize down the road.


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