Saturday morning quick thoughts....

This is the point I feel the need to say this. I have not said a huge snow storm is going to happen for Charlotte, Greensboro, Raleigh, Atlanta, or any other one place. It is too early for any confidence that any one spot will really get nailed.

What I have said, and I will still say, is that this system has high potential to bring somebody across the region, and possibly a good number of somebodies, a good snow event.

Uncertainties run rampant this morning. The biggest questions revolve around the timing and interaction of a couple of pieces of upper level energy....one in the southern branch, another one diving in from the Midwest. How quickly each of these pieces of energy move, and how quickly they begin to phase with one another, will determine how this event plays out.

The earlier they phase, the farther north and west the system tracks. The later they phase, the farther east and south.

Here is our southern branch system as I type. Give it another 18-24 hours, and it will be in an area with better data sampling to go into the models.



For the western Carolina and north Georgia, generally speaking, you want to see a quicker phase. But not too much....you don't want warm air to flood in. For the eastern Carolinas, a later phase would give you some snow, but an earlier phase and stronger system would probably give you snow to rain and then some nice snow on the back end.

One other thing to watch....there has been some trend on the modeling of making the system not as strong overall. Again, that all has to do with the timing and phasing of the branches.

There you have it. So, snow fans, now is not really the time to let your emotions ebb and flow based on each model run. Give it another day or two, let's let this get more squarely in the range of the shorter range models, and let's see where we stand.

Read more...

Robert Elvington's Post

Robert is an intern of mine. He is a recent graduate from the meteorology program at NC State. Here is a post from him this morning......

Last day of high winds for the area thanks to the low sitting off the coast of New York. As the low continues to weaken and move West/Northwest expect the winds to settle back to normal. The weekend still continues to look quiet, with below average temperatures.

The next weather maker looks to impact our region and the Southeast around mid to late day Tuesday through Wednesday afternoon. The current wavy upper atmosphere continues to roll out new systems every 3 to 4 days. Most models are in quite good agreement for this far out showing this system dropping high amounts of liquid over our area. Liquid equivalent of around 2.00 inches as you move closer to the triangle. The question whether it will be snow or rain is still playing out. However, Right now it looks to starts as rain, cooling the atmosphere to near freezing, allowing for a long sustained period of heavy snow for most if not all of the viewing area. Some models are even showing prolonged banding to set up over central NC where accumulations amounts could quickly climb higher.

Look for some hints on amount totals as we get closer to the event Sunday into Monday.

But as always we are 4 days out so it is still too early to make or change plans based on the forecast. Check back with Weather on the Ones or blog posts as we will update forecasts based on all the latest data and model runs.

Robert Elvington

robert.elvington@gmail.com

Read more...

Windy again today...potential winter storm next week...

We will have another windy day around the region today with a lot of sunshine and highs in the mid to upper 40s. Winds will gust over 30 or 35mph at times today, so it will be a cold, blustery day.

The weekend weather looks pretty quiet with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s and a decent amount of sunshine.

All eyes are really focused on our system Tuesday into Wednesday next week. After being as lost as a duck in a hail storm yesterday, the GFS has caught onto the idea the foreign modeling has had on this system. Frankly, the model agreement is about as good as you could ask for several days out on this....which makes me nervous.....just waiting for something to go awry.

All in all, my position here is unchanged from the past few days. I still think the potential is high for a big snow event for parts of the Southeast. Please see the video for lots of details. Right now, I think some snow is possible in north and central Mississippi and Alabama, but the potential for heavier snow totals really begins to increase as you head from northern Georgia and especially into the Carolinas.....especially the western and central Carolinas....maybe even coastal parts of North Carolina.

This is a fluid situation with lots of moving parts.....and small scale changes in features can have big implications to the forecast. Lots could change....

Stay tuned....

Read more...

Cold and breezy today....watching next week....

Some folks saw some snow showers overnight last night, and a few places around the region will continue to see a few flakes this morning. However, the big story today (outside of the mountains where snow will continue) is cold and breezy conditions. Highs today will struggle to reach the lower 40s, and when you factor in the wind, we will see wind chill values sub-freezing much of the day.

Lows drop into the 20s tonight, and highs will be in the mid to upper 40s tomorrow with breeziness continuing.

This weekend will be cool and dry, but I continue to be very interested in a potential system next week.

See the video for lots of details on this. As of now, my thinking is unchanged....somebody across the Southeast will likely see a good snow event out of this. I think the GFS is far too suppressed with this system, and I am definitely in the camp of the foreign models in their handling of this system right now. The details of where and how much are questions I am not ready to answer, but the system certainly bears watching. Again, please see the video today for lots of stuff on this system, including why the GFS is doing what it is doing....

Read more...

Some snow possible today...bigger system on the horizon....

We will see precip spread into the region this morning. Initially, most of the precip will be rain, but with time, many Piedmont spots will see some snow. This is still a tricky forecast due to the overall light nature of the precip and the borderline nature of near surface temps.

For the Triad area, a dusting to at very most 1-2" look possible on grassy and elevated surfaces. Roads should remain wet with temps above freezing today.

The Charlotte and Raleigh areas are even tougher....I still think anyone in that area is fair game for some minor accumulations on the grass, but some spots could very well see rain for most of the event.

Tomorrow will be cold and breezy with temps struggling to make it to the lower 40s and northwest winds gusting over 30mph at times.

We should stay dry and cool this weekend.

Our next system will then approach by around Tuesday. All of the players are on the field for the potential for a significant winter storm somewhere across the Southeast....and probably a lot of somewheres. Will it be here? Tough to say with certainty yet, but it bears watching.....

Read more...

Winter Weather Advisories hoisted.....

The NWS has hoisted Winter Weather Advisories for a number of Piedmont counties, including the Charlotte metro , the Triad, and RDU. No changes from me from the ideas outlined earlier....dusting to maybe 2" on grassy and elevated surfaces. Most roads should just wind up wet tomorrow.

Check out all of the new pages here on the site on the left. TONS of information to peruse, and I will be tweaking and adding more. I just wanted to get the initial setup going for you guys today. Lots and lots of model days, current information, and forecast products for you to pour over.

Thanks for all of the kind words....continue to feel free to leave any comments of suggestions.

Read more...

Snow possibilities ahead.....

We will have a quiet and relatively mild day today. After a foggy start, low clouds will be tough to erode today, but some peeks of sun are possible with highs in the mid to upper 50s....maybe lower 60s in a few spots.

Snow is falling in Texas today, and that system will arrive here tomorrow. I expect wet snow to spread in tomorrow morning and taper off later tomorrow afternoon. Some rain could be involved initially, but for the I-85 corridor and points north and west, the precip type looks like mainly wet snow.

I do think some accumulations of snow are possible. Temperatures will likely remain above freezing for the entirety of the event, so I expect the roads to be primarily wet. But anyone in the Triad and Charlotte regions, even over toward RDU, is fair game to pick up some slushy snow accumulations on the grassy areas and elevated surfaces. The heaviest snow accumulations will likely be in the 1-2" category.

Below is my preliminary accumulation map....I reserve the right to amend that tomorrow morning.

Thursday will be cold and windy, and overall, we will be back into a colder pattern beginning tomorrow. The next system will approach by Saturday morning. For the time being, it looks like that will mainly stay to our south, but it is very close.  And for quite a while, the models have been in remarkable agreement that a powerful system will imact the southeast early next week. Details are obviously still up in the air, but that one bears watching for more wintry potential.

Read more...

Monday Morning.....

Rain pressing through this morning.....will be in and out pretty quickly. I actually just saw a flash of lightning out of the window!

**I am doing some major renovations on the blog here, so you might see some strange things happening over the next couple of days.**

Thanks for stopping by. Full post and video up bright and early in the morning!

Read more...

Early Sunday morning....

Quick hits here this morning....enjoy another terrific day today. Highs will warm into the 60s for most.

Still looks like a quick hit of some rain tomorrow. It does not look very heavy.

Keeping an eye on Wednesday. After the GFS indicated some wintry chances Wednesday on several runs late last week, it has now suppressed the thing way south. Canadian is way south too. Euro is indicating the chance of a quick shot of precip Wednesday. We will see....

It is going to get cold later this week. We will get plunged back into well below normal temps by the second half of the week.

Watching the March 1-3 time frame for the possibility of a significant system.

Enjoy your Sunday. I will not be in the weather office tomorrow.....back at it Tuesday morning!

Read more...