>> Saturday, February 27, 2010
This is the point I feel the need to say this. I have not said a huge snow storm is going to happen for Charlotte, Greensboro, Raleigh, Atlanta, or any other one place. It is too early for any confidence that any one spot will really get nailed.
What I have said, and I will still say, is that this system has high potential to bring somebody across the region, and possibly a good number of somebodies, a good snow event.
Uncertainties run rampant this morning. The biggest questions revolve around the timing and interaction of a couple of pieces of upper level energy....one in the southern branch, another one diving in from the Midwest. How quickly each of these pieces of energy move, and how quickly they begin to phase with one another, will determine how this event plays out.
The earlier they phase, the farther north and west the system tracks. The later they phase, the farther east and south.
Here is our southern branch system as I type. Give it another 18-24 hours, and it will be in an area with better data sampling to go into the models.
For the western Carolina and north Georgia, generally speaking, you want to see a quicker phase. But not too much....you don't want warm air to flood in. For the eastern Carolinas, a later phase would give you some snow, but an earlier phase and stronger system would probably give you snow to rain and then some nice snow on the back end.
One other thing to watch....there has been some trend on the modeling of making the system not as strong overall. Again, that all has to do with the timing and phasing of the branches.
There you have it. So, snow fans, now is not really the time to let your emotions ebb and flow based on each model run. Give it another day or two, let's let this get more squarely in the range of the shorter range models, and let's see where we stand.