Quick Saturday AM post....

First of all, regarding the clipper...

Light precip has streaked out way ahead of the main system, and a few sleet pellets or snowflakes are possible this morning in some spots. But the main part of the system comes through late this afternoon through this evening.

At this point, I think there is a pretty good chance that some areas along and north of I-40 will see some elevated surfaces whitened by this evening. This would be on the grassy areas, car tops, roof tops, etc....roads should not be an issue with ground temps still above 40 degrees.

South of I-40, the thermal profiles (as well as the fact that moisture looks to have a hard time making it up into the dendritic growth region per BUFKIT soundings) look to support some light rain, maybe mixing with or ending as a few snow flakes.

The long an short of it....not a big deal at all....but maybe a few lucky snow fans in the northern and northwestern Piedmont will see some elevated surfaces whitened by this evening.

Here is the big deal....the coming cold......beginning tomorrow and lasting through Thursday or so. This is a big-time, sustained blast of cold air. I still think many Piedmont locations will see highs shy of 40 for a few days during that stretch with lows in the teens and 20s.

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Chilly today, clipper late tomorrow, frigid next week...

Below is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video...



It will be another fairly chilly day today with highs in the Piedmont in the upper 40s to lower 50s under a partly cloudy sky. Lows tonight will drop into the upper 20s to around 30 degrees.

Clipper system...

A fairly potent 'clipper' system will drop into the region late tomorrow. Typically the mountains will wring most of the precip out of these types of systems, and this will likely largely happen once again tomorrow. However, this system is potent enough that I think some precip will make it into the Piedmont and even to the coast.

What type of precip? Generally speaking, I expect most of the precip (that will likely move in late in the afternoon for the western Piedmont and into the evening for areas farther east) to be in the form of some light snow for the I-40 corridor and points north. Some rain could mix in, but generally speaking, the atmosphere looks cold enough for the main precip type to be snow in those areas.

South of I-40, it looks like mainly some light rain with a few intervals of light snow possibly mixing in.

Now, the key work in all of this is 'light.' Some places will not see any precip at all, and in the places that do, it will not be very heavy. I do think it is within the realm of possibility that a few elevated surfaces could get dusted, but ground temps are still pretty warm, so any accumulation potential is limited to those elevated surfaces, and even at that, a dusting.

So, really, not a big deal, but kind of a novelty in that some places could see the first flakes of the season.

Big-time cold....

Here is the big deal....the cold air on the way. While it has been chilly the past couple of days, I am anticipating downright cold air to settle in for next week. I am talking many Piedmont highs shy of 40 for several days next week with lows in the upper teens to lower 20s.

This sustained cold blast will likely give most areas in the region at least 4 days of highs at least 15 degrees below average.....that is quite significant.

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Brrr.....

Below is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video...



Cold air will be a common theme in our weather for at least the next week to ten days. The predominant weather pattern will feature a trough over eastern North America, and that will pull several re-enforcing blasts pure arctic air down into our region.

Today, a disturbance will move our way from the Plains states, but the system will be weakening as it approaches. So, while we will have a good deal of clouds overhead at times today, I don't anticipate any precipitation. It will be chilly though with Piedmont highs only in the 40s.

Weekend ahead...

Tomorrow should feature lots of sun, and highs will be a few ticks above today's values....upper 40s to lower 50s.

A 'clipper' system will swing through our region late Saturday and Saturday night. Typically, clipper systems do not generate much if any precipitation around the Piedmont. However, this one is pretty potent, and there could be just enough moisture available for the system to wring out a little precip.

So, at this point I will mention the chance of some light snow late Saturday and Saturday night, mainly along and north of I-40. South of I-40, maybe some light rain ending with a few snow flakes.

This does not look like a big deal....precip amounts look very light. However, we will keep an eye out to see if it looks like the system will tap any deeper moisture.

Next week....

It looks like 'cold' will be the dominant weather word next week. And I do mean cold. Highs on several days might not make it to 40 in some Piedmont areas, and lows most mornings will at least dip down into the low to mid 20s....and if we can get a night or two where winds relax, some teens are definitely possible.

As for the potential storm system, at this point it looks like cold will likely overwhelm the pattern in the eastern US, and the big trough will likely suppress any potential storm systems to our south. But we will watch to see if the trough will allow a system to get up our way at some point.

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Quiet, chilly weather settles in...

Below is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video...



After an active night with numerous severe thunderstorm and some tornado warnings issued across the region, a chilly, dry, and quiet airmass is arriving today.

Temperatures will not move a great deal through the day. In fact, the temps will begin to fall a bit in many spots later this afternoon, and lower 50s will be about the best we will do for daytime temps. It will be a bit breezy as this colder airmass arrives as well.

A cold night is on tap with lows well down into the 20s area-wide. Then tomorrow will only feature mid to upper 40s for highs around the Piedmont.

Friday will be cool and quite with highs in the lower 50s.

Weekend...

A clipper system will swing through this weekend. With this morning's forecast package, I have again left precip chances out of the forecast. However, I can't rule out a brief shower in a few spots at some point over the weekend. Highs will remain chilly....mainly in the mid to upper 40s.

Next week...

Most modeling is indicating the potential storm system next week will remain to our south, and most of our region will simply be cold and dry. I am not ready to rule out the possibility of a storm system, but the trend has not been the friend of snow fans over the past 24 hours.

It does look cold next week with some low to mid 40s for highs and lows well down into the 20s. In fact, if the idea of a suppressed system (meaning no precip here) does indeed occur, some teens are quite possible for a few Piedmont lows.

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Mid-afternoon update....

A tornado watch has been issued for a good chunk of SC up into the Charlotte metro region of NC. The wedge has been successfully eroded away for most of the Piedmont, and the airmass is slowly getting more unstable. Most temps were in the 60s, and so were the dewpoints as of 2-3pm.

The sun is out in parts of GA up into parts of southern SC, and the airmass is rapidly getting more unstable there. Some of that unstable air will get pulled northward in the southerly flow ahead of the system.

The main band of rain and embedded storms will progress through the mountains and emerge into the foothills by early this evening.

Don't let the radar deceive you. The activity will probably not look terribly impressive as it begins to emerge out of the higher elevations. However, as the incoming dynamics interact with the more unstable air in the Piedmont and Upstate, the storms will likely intensify.

Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are the concern this evening into tonight.

Stay with News 14 Carolina on television for all of the latest information. And tonight is a perfect example of every home needing a NOAA weather radio.

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Powerhouse system moving in...

Below is today's edition of the video...



The region will continue to see periods of rain today as a major storm system crawls into the area. The cool conditions we had in place yesterday will give way to a much milder airmass in time today, and most of the Piedmont will be well up into the 60s by later this afternoon. Some spots could even hit 70 degrees or so.

As the airmass gets more unstable, thunderstorms enter the forecast equation. While a few storms could be involved late this afternoon, I think tonight is the main time-frame for storms. This is a classic high shear/ low instability setup, and similar setups in the past have resulted in severe weather. We will have to be vigilant in watching for severe storms capable of producing damaging winds and even a few tornadoes tonight.

This is another case where the possibility exists over severe weather while the bulk of the community is sleeping. Every home should have a NOAA weather radio. If and when severe weather develops, we will be on the air covering it for you, but we can't wake you up through the TV sets. There is a chance this winds up being a non-event, but have a way of hearing watches and warnings in the event they are required.

Quiet and chilly weather resumes tomorrow through the weekend. A 'clipper' system will roll through Sunday and bring some clouds. However, the moisture still looks quite limited, and once again I have left precip out of the weekend forecast. Most high and low temps on a daily basis will be a little below average.

Next week...

Model madness continues for next week, and I still think there is the possibility of a storm system for the Deep South and/or Southeast Tuesday into Wednesday. I think the GFS is unusable for the time being (at least as of the 0z run today)....it over-amplifies things early next week over the eastern US and really crushes the disturbance that would create the storm system. The Canadian and European models both still have the system, and I think they are more correct. But time will tell....

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Dynamic storm system on the way. . .

After some fairly chilly, docile weather Saturday and Sunday, the weather is about to get more active around here. Today, clouds will be on the increase for the Charlotte and Triad zones on up into the mountains, and some drizzle could develop in time. Highs today will largely be in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

The core of our next system will swing through later tomorrow and exit very early Wednesday. Rain will be a possibility from time to time tomorrow, with the heaviest rain during the day being the farther west you head....especially in the mountains and foothills. With time, the band of heavier rain will pivot eastward through the rest of the area. This will occur mainly Tuesday night. at that point, a few storms could be involved as well. This is a high shear/ low instability set up, and a few severe storms can't be ruled out, especially as you get closer to I-95.

Flooding will likely be an issue for the mountains and foothills. I fully anticipate some 3-5" rain amounts in those areas. For the I-85 corridor, this is looking like a 1-2" type rain event.

Later this week...

A fresh push of cold air will arrive later Wednesday, and highs will likely struggle to get out of the 40s in some Piedmont spots Thursday into the weekend.

A couple of 'clipper' type systems will move through late this week and then again Sunday. At this point, moisture looks pretty limited, so I don't have any precip chances in the forecast with those.

System next week...

It sure looks like another system will roll through the region Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. This is the one that has been hinted at by the modeling for a while now. That one definitely bears watching for the potential for at least some wintry weather somewhere around the region as a whole. WAY too soon for any type of details....but it has my interest.

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