Showers and storms likely today... drier times ahead...

Radar clearly shows a disturbance over middle Tennessee early this morning, and it's moving eastward. All modeling aside, that alone leads me to believe we will have good chances of some showers and storms here in the Carolinas today.

Drier air will begin to filter into NC from the north tomorrow, and that will mean a reduction in the chance of showers and storms.

At this point, Thursday through the weekend are looking mainly dry and warm.

Tropics...

TD2 is inland over Central America, and it will stay well south, winding up in Mexico. Flooding and mudslides in Mexico will be the problem with this system.

See the video for much more on all of this....

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Cooler, drier airmass is here...

What a rough afternoon and evening yesterday. Here's the storm report map from the SPC. Tons of wind damage reports featured, many of which were in our region.

However, a much cooler and drier airmass has arrived, and that will provide for excellent weather today into the Father's Day weekend.

There's a limited chance of a shower or two today as one final impulse ripples through, but most will be dry.

See the video for much, much more....

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This afternoon...

At 1pm, temps in the piedmont are near 90 and dewpoints are near 70. This is a very warm and unstable airmass.

An upper level disturbance was located back near Kentucky. You can note the storms firing on the leading edge of the disturbance on the water vapor image below.

The SPC has upped a chunk of the region into the 'Moderate risk' area for severe storms this afternoon/evening. Damaging winds remain the main threat. Here are the wind probabilites from the latest SPC outlook.

Finally, here is the RPM model, valid at 6pm.

We will likely have an intense line, or broken line, of storms move first through the mountains and then through the foothills and piedmont as the afternoon unfolds.

The wind damage potential is elevated due to a number of meteorological factor in place. Please take Severe Thunderstorm Warnings seriously today. 

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