>> Saturday, December 03, 2011
I am hearing lots of rumbles of panic and cancelling of Winter. I just don't see any reason at all for this.
First of all, it's early December. Granted, we were entering a very cold stretch at this point last year, and it's certainly going to be fairly mild into the middle of next week. We have not had a prolonged, significant blast of cold air yet. However, it has been plenty chilly at times with lots of up and down temps.
Looking ahead to next week, I think we will see a pretty significant blast of cold air by the end of the week/ weekend. Not quite sure how cold, but pretty cold nonetheless.
As for snow/ wintry weather chances, most of the time, you don't want to have a pattern where cold just overwhelms the pattern.....that gives you cold and dry. A lot of times, you want to be fairly close to the battle zone of temps to keep the storm track active and nearby. And I can see that scenario unfolding for the Southeast as we head into mid-month.
Looking toward that mid-month period, I think there will plenty of cold air in the continent, and it looks to be a scenario where the Carolinas will be ripe for a cold air damming scenario or two down the road.
I also note, as I did back in my Winter Forecast, the this pattern continues to want to try and produce big, powerful upper air lows. Just look at earlier this week! Doesn't snow in November in Mississippi and Alabama much.....not bad for this "boring, mild pattern" we are in.
So, there will probably wind up being a couple of big systems later in the month, and of course, wherever those wind up, obviously fun and games will be had.
So, snow fans......relax. Let's see what happens. I see no reason for panic.