Here is a shot from the Avalon Pier this morning....the sea churned up and looking angry.
Rain continues to occur, but it is already starting to taper off from SW to NE. Most of the rain looks to be out of the Piedmont by early afternoon.
Tropical Storm Hanna made landfall near the North and South Carolina border at 3:20am.
Looks like we have seen the heavy rain band push about as far west as it is going to. So, this looks like it could be a situation where Monroe and Burlington see a couple of inches of rain while Gastonia and Yadkinville see very little if any rain.
Winds will pick up a bit this morning as the wind field from Hanna spread inland. In the Charlotte and Triad viewing area, some wind gusts to 30 or 40mph are possible. Flash flooding is a concern in the areas where the rain has settled in.
Below is a radar image I snagged as Hanna made landfall.
Hanna is looking very impressive this evening. In fact, I am a little surprised the NHC did not upgrade the system to a hurricane with the 8pm advisory. Either way, this will pack a decent punch along the coast, and we will see where heavy rain bands set up in the Piedmont overnight.
Based on its satellite presentation, Hanna is sure looking a lot healthier. In fact, at the rate the system is going, if it can maintain this deep convection, it has a good chance of becoming a hurricane prior to landfall. People on the coast need to be paying attention to this.
About time for a nap. Long morning this morning, and my next on-air shift responsibility begins at 2am....
Tropical Storm Hanna is located a bit over 400 miles south of Wilmington this morning and lifting northwest at around 20mph. Landfall will likely occur during the early morning hours of Saturday on the upper South Carolina coast or southern North Carolina coast.
In terms of intensity, Hanna will likely be a strong tropical storm at landfall. It is possible Hanna could be a weak Category 1 hurricane, but in all honesty, there is not a whole lot of difference between a strong tropical storm and a weak hurricane.
Along the coast, conditions will begin deteriorating this afternoon and evening with the worst weather occurring overnight. Heavy rain, very windy conditions, and the threat of tornadoes will be likely in eastern North Carolina and the South Carolina coast through the night into early Saturday.
For interior portions of the Carolinas, including the Traid and Charlotte viewing areas, clouds will roll in today, and some afternoon showers are possible. The best rain chances will be tonight into Saturday morning. There will likely be a strip of real estate between the Triad and the Triangle that sees over two inches of rain, but where that band will set up is impossible to determine at this point. It is conveivable that some spots could miss out on the rain altogether.
It will be rather breezy at times tonight into Saturday morning, but the heaviest winds will likely be confined to the eastern part of the state.
Hanna will quickly pull away tomorrow afternoon, and we could see some sunshine try to work in tomorrow afternoon.
Looks like Hanna is firing off some convection on its western side....we will see if that can sustain itself and wrap all of the way around the center. If you look at a water vapor loop, you can see the same dry environment that we are in has gotten wrapped around Cuba and into the system.
Ike still looks impressive this afternoon, although continuing to be a bit asymmetrical due to northerly shear.
The NHC has included lots of good satellite images on the satellite page...lots of different IR bands to look at.
Below is a shot of the water vapor....note the dry air I was referring to. Also, I have an IR shot of Hanna and Ike.
Hanna has entrained some dry air this morning and looks very unhealthy on satellite imagery. Unless deep convection fires around the center, no significant strengthening will occur.
Ike remains a Category 4 hurricane...this one sure looks like it might try to move near the Eastern Seaboard next week.
I have pulled over my discussion from news14.com below. I will add some additional thoughts later this morning and I will try to cut a video later on as well.
News14.com discussion....
We will squeeze in one more sunny and warm day today before our weather changes a bit as Hanna makes its run at the coast. Today, look for lots of sunshine with highs close to 90 degrees. Just as in recent days, humidity levels will remain fairly low.
Some high clouds well in advance of Hanna will begin to stream in tonight with lows in the low to mid 60s.
Confidence is growing in the future track of Hanna. Landfall continues to look like it will occur on the northern South Carolina coast or the southern North Carolina coast. After landfall, Hanna will bend back to the north and then northeast and head through mainly eastern North Carolina.
The worst effects from Hanna will likely remain confined to eastern portions of North Carolina. For our viewing area, we can expect the chance of some showers tomorrow afternoon with pretty good rain chances arriving tomorrow night into Saturday morning. While some breezy conditions are certainly possible, on Hanna's current expected track, the heaviest inland winds would be confined to areas roughly along and east of I-95. Rain chances will end by Saturday afternoon.
For coastal portions of the Carolinas, especially for the Myrtle Beach area up through Wilmington and into the Outer Banks, heavy surf will continue and increase as we head through tomorrow and tomorrow night. Rain will begin spreading in tomorrow, and it will get windier with time as Friday evening arrives. The roughest stretch of weather will likely be from 6pm Friday evening through midday Friday. Hanna will likely come ashore as a minor hurricane, so wind gusts of 75-90mph will be possible.
Read more...First of all, Ike has exploded in intensity, and is a beautiful hurricane to look at. Textbook really. Ike will likely be a problem for someone in the US down the road.
Hanna is getting its act together, and I think the organization will continue. Landfall still looks to be on the South Carolina or North Carolina coast. All folks with interests from Charleston up through the Outer Banks need to pay very close attention to Hanna.
I will be back in the weather office dark and early tomorrow morning....will have some fresh information for you as the morning rolls along....
Thanks for reading!
Due to Hanna being father south and east today in reality than modeling earlier in the week had it, we are seeing the models adjust for that today with their continued eastward shift in landfall location.
Unless something really changes, the threat looks about over for a Florida or Georgia landfall. And, as it stands now, the threat is looking lower for a South Carolina landfall with an increasing potential for a North Carolina landfall. In fact, some modeling now swings it off to the east of the coast altogether.
However, I would, at this point, still leave the options on the table for either a South Carolina or North Carolina landfall to be on the safe side.
The threat of big problems from this for the Charlotte and Triad zones continues to lessen. Not out of the woods yet, but as it stands now, the biggest problems look to be in the eastern part of the state.
Putting it simply, Hanna looks rough this morning. Shear and proximity to Hispaniola have taken a significant toll on the system.
With that said, the overall environment around Hanna will improve over the next 12-24 hours, and I anticipate we will see Hanna organize over the next couple of days. All indications continue to be that Hanna will be a hurricane at landfall. How strong a hurricane is a big question mark, and until I see that the system can develop some deep convection around the center again, I will not have much confidence in the intensity forecast.
The system has been moving erratically, but a northwest motion should settle in today and tonight. There was an eastward shift in most of the model guidance overnight, especially with the inland track of Hanna.
So, the call here is for a landfall on the Carolina coast by Friday night. That could be either North or South Carolina. The inland track of Hanna could very well be across eastern portions of the Carolinas. If that is the case, the Charlotte and Triad zones could see periods of rain and some breezy conditions, but the worst effects would be along and east of I-95. But it is really too early for any specifics like that at this juncture.
It is a wait and see deal at this point. The elements are still on the table for some significant strengthening of the system, but we will have to see if that actually occurs.
I feel like playing the theme from Rocky watching the sat loop of Hanna....what a fighter. Hanna has taken an absolute flogging from shear today, and yet it still continues to fire deep convection around the center.
That shear should relax tomorrow, and my post from this morning is still valid. If we see the shear relax enough and the center remains over deep enough, warm enough water, I still think Hanna can take off in intensity prior to landfall.
As far as track is concerned, I have no changes to my ideas outlined below. Basically a Friday landfall on the Georgia or South Carolina coast seems most likely. Some guidance takes the system into north Florida, but for the time being, I am not changing anything.
As far as inland track, it is interesting that the NHC track is farther east that most modeling. NHC did a fantastic job with Gustav, so I am not taking anything away from them at all. I just would not be surprised if this goes farther west inland through the Carolinas than the 5pm NHC forecast. I note the 12z Euro takes the system basically through the mountains.
That's it for me today...I will be back in the weather office bright (well, dark really) and early tomorrow morning.
Looking over satellite trends as well as model trends, I think we might see a WEST trend with the NHC track today. I am not going to deviate from my thinking (discussed in the video above and the post below), but I would say that our friends in north Florida are certainly not out of the woods, and the threat of a direct hit for the North Carolina coast seems a bit lower. But again, for the time being, I will stick with my initial ideas of the best chance of landfall being on the Georgia or South Carolina coast.
Hanna will be severely beaten by shear today, but I still expect significant strengthening prior to landfall.
See the video and the post below for additional information.
See the video above for a run down of the modeling on Hanna.
Hanna is a fighter. The system has had to battle tons of shear for its entire existence, and yet it managed to attain hurricane status before weakening back down to a strong tropical storm.
That shear should relax over the next couple of days, and my concern is that Hanna could really ramp up in intensity. Imagine it like this.....you are pushing an object up a hill. The object weighs 150 pounds. You struggle with it, but you are slowly moving it up the hill. Now, what if all of the sudden, the weight of the object decreased to 50 pounds? You would really be able to move it with ease now.
That is my concern with Hanna....once this shear relaxes, it could really pop.
I expect a strengthening system as Hanna approaches the coast. Landfall will likely be on the upper Georgia or South Carolina coast...although the North Carolina coast cannot be ruled out. Landfall will likely occur Friday.
How strong will Hanna be at landfall? My thinking is at least a Category 2 hurricane, maybe higher. The shear should relax, and Hanna will head over the Gulf stream. So, if you have interests along the Georgia or Carolina coasts, you can expect surf and rip currents to really pick up over the next couple of days. Conditions will deteriorate Thursday night into Friday as Hanna approaches the coast and makes landfall.
Now, for interior portions of the Carolinas, including the Triad, Triangle, and Charlotte regions. If current indications hold, we could see some rainy and very windy condition arrive later Friday and Friday night....ending early Saturday. How significant of an event this is will depend on the strength and track of Hanna. There is a chance most of the rains could stay in eastern portions of the state, but it is too soon to tell.
Gustav continues to pound southern Louisiana. The system will continue to ease inland and will weaken with time. It will take quite a few hours to really see the extent of the damage.
People need to pay attention to Hanna. This system has been battling a ton of shear for days on end how. However, that shear will relax over the next couple of days, and there is the chance this could really take off in intensity. Anyone from north Florida on up through the Carolinas needs to closely monitor the progress of this system. And of course, if this does become a powerful hurricane, then big problems can occur well inland.
And now Tropical Depression 9 has formed and will likely soon become Ike. TD9 will track westward across the Atlantic.....still plenty of time to watch that one.
Keep it with our team here at News 14 Carolina. We have tropical updates for you at :21 and :51 minutes past the hour, and Jeff and I will keep our respective blogs warm with good information.
Good morning! Labor Day is upon us, but the eyes of the weather world are on Louisiana. Hurricane Gustav will make landfall this morning on the Louisiana coast, likely as a Category 3 hurricane. Buoys offshore out in the Gulf have had waves in the 30-40 foot range, and already we have seen wind gusts in southeast Louisiana in excess of 90mph. It will be very interesting to see what issues with storm surge materialize as Gustav comes ashore this morning.
I want to mention that my good friend, Hank Allen, is a meteorologist a WGNO in New Orleans. He is doing a very nice job with coverage as Gustav is coming ashore. Pull up the live feed from above and give it a look.
For the Carolinas, our eyes are on Tropical Storm Hanna. It sure looks like this will hit the Southeast coast around Friday. It is still early, so I am going to mention anyone from north Florida up through the Carolinas as possible landfall locations. However, I am leaning more toward Georgia or the Carolinas at this point.
The official NHC forecast only brings Hanna up to a minimal hurricane before moving ashore. However, I want to mention that the environment around Hanna should improve by later in the work week, and I have concerns that we will be looking at a stronger hurricane than that.
For the Piedmont, I am bringing in good rain chances Friday associated with Hanna. We will adjust as necessary.
The weather today through Wednesday will be very nice. Highs today and tomorrow will be in the mid 80s with lots of sun. Tonight, lows will drop into the upper 50s in many spots.
Gustav is heading to the Louisiana coast and will make landfall tomorrow morning. I just talked with a good friend of mine who is a meteorologist in New Orleans, and he said it is quite strange seeing the city so empty.
Gustav's impact on New Orleans is still an unknown. The farther west along the LA coast it makes landfall, the better for NO....but if course that means problems for somebody else.
Looking at satellite images over the past couple of hours, it looks like Gustav is getting a touch better organized. So, I would not be surprised at all to see some strengthening this evening.
Hanna is lurking in the southwest Atlantic, and there are growing indications this would be a problem for the Carolinas down the road.
I am off today and am mainly away from the computer, but I will be in the weather office in the early morning hours tomorrow morning and will have plenty of info then.
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