6pm Tuesday...

I feel like playing the theme from Rocky watching the sat loop of Hanna....what a fighter. Hanna has taken an absolute flogging from shear today, and yet it still continues to fire deep convection around the center.

That shear should relax tomorrow, and my post from this morning is still valid. If we see the shear relax enough and the center remains over deep enough, warm enough water, I still think Hanna can take off in intensity prior to landfall.

As far as track is concerned, I have no changes to my ideas outlined below. Basically a Friday landfall on the Georgia or South Carolina coast seems most likely. Some guidance takes the system into north Florida, but for the time being, I am not changing anything.

As far as inland track, it is interesting that the NHC track is farther east that most modeling. NHC did a fantastic job with Gustav, so I am not taking anything away from them at all. I just would not be surprised if this goes farther west inland through the Carolinas than the 5pm NHC forecast. I note the 12z Euro takes the system basically through the mountains.

That's it for me today...I will be back in the weather office bright (well, dark really) and early tomorrow morning.