Scattered storms today...watching the tropics...

Scattered storms are in the forecast today as a disturbance approaches from the northwest. A few storms could be severe this afternoon. Highs will be in the upper 80s to around 90 or so.

Still some chance of at least a few afternoon storms over the weekend with most highs in the lower 90s.

Tropics...

Please see today's edition of the video, embedded above. Lots of good graphics and information to go along with today's discussion.

TD 8 has formed in the Caribbean Sea and will head into Central America.

There are two tropical waves well out in the Atlantic, and both could become classified systems. At this point, I think odds favor the wave that has recently emerged off of Africa re-curving into the Atlantic.

However, the wave in the central Atlantic might be a different story. Still tons of question with this one...the first one being 'will it develop?' I think it likely will, but it still might take it a few more days.

After that, in terms of intensity, you have to see what the overall atmospheric environment will be around the system in the future. Then, you have to consider land interaction, especially Hispaniola.

Finally, in terms of track, the big player down the road will be a trough swinging into the eastern US. The big question will be does this trough pick it up and pull it north, meaning a possible Atlantic coast landfall. Or, does the trough largely miss it, which could mean a Gulf of Mexico landfall.

Way too soon to tell. Again, please see the video for lots of good graphics and information to go along with this discussion.

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A few PM storms...watching the tropics...

A weak cold front is approaching the region, and that will help to kick off a few afternoon storms on a daily basis through the weekend. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s over the next few days.

Another cold front will move through Monday. Look for some storms with the front, then a slight cool-down by mid-week next week.

The forecast beyond mid-week depends on the tropics....

Tropics...

The tropical disturbance in the Caribbean Sea continues to slowly organize, and it could get classified today or tomorrow prior to moving into Central America.

Of greater US interest is the tropical wave still well out into the Atlantic. It is looking slightly healthier this morning, but it still has a ways to go before it would be healthy enough to get classified. However, almsot every single computer models does indeed develop this system, and they are almost unanimous in showing the potential for a Southeast US landfall later next week.

See the video for some graphics to go along with this.

At this point, I need to see this system organize a great deal before I get terribly concerned. There is a lot of dry air out there over the Atlantic that this thing will have to battle, not to mention possible land interactions in the Caribbean.

However, if this does develop and survive, the potential is indeed there for a run at the Southeast US coast later next week. Stay tuned...

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Another nice one...

Highs were in the 80s yesterday with low humidity around the region. Today's weather will be much the same, albeit a little warmer. Humidity levels will again be low.

A weak front will bring an isolated storm chance tomorrow afternoon, and the chance of storms then increase a bit Friday.

Another, stronger front will then approach and move through around Monday of next week. Look for some showers and storms in association with that, then another push of some cooler air by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

Tropics...

Of most interest to me in the tropics are a series of tropical waves well out into the Atlantic. While there is not anything terribly impressive at the moment, most computer model guidance insists that a system will develop from this region and be somewhere close to the eastern Caribbean Sea 4 or 5 days from now. I show you some of the model output in today's video, docked above.

If a system can develop, it appears the window of opportunity will be open for a potential run at the Southeast coast late next week. So, we need to watch it. However, at the moment, like I said...not even a well-defined area of interest.

See the video above for lots of graphics to go along with this....

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Terrific Tuesday weather...

Today's weather will be about as good as you can draw it up in mid-August. Look for sunshine, highs in the mid to upper 80s, and low humidity. Nice stuff! Lows tonight will again drop well down into the 60s.

Tomorrow will be a bit warmer with upper 80s and lower 90s, but continued low humidity levels.

A couple of cold fronts will then approach and bring some storm chances...one later Thursday into Friday, and another one Sunday or Monday.

Tropics...

Gert is pulling away from Bermuda into the open waters of the north Atlantic...only an issue for shipping lanes now.

So, where will our next tropical system develop? Two possibilities....1) a tropical wave in the Caribbean Sea, and 2) a tropical wave that recently emerged off of Africa. Some modeling develops one or both of those waves. Time will tell.

I do note the GFS, on today's 0z run, developed the African wave and winds up bringing it to the south Florida coast then up into the southern Apps region about two weeks from now. However, that us pure model fantasy at this point.

See today's video, embedded above, for more on all of this....

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Fantastic weather ahead...

It was a rough weekend across the region in some areas with severe weather at times. Included in today's video, embedded below, I have a few nice viewer photos documenting the severe weather around the Triad viewing area Sunday.



We are under a big upper trough today. One of the features of an upper level trough like this is some cold air aloft. Due to that, I will word in the chance of an isolated shower or storm this afternoon, especially up around the VA border region. However, most will be dry.

The big weather story is the delightful airmass over the next few days. Look for 80s for highs, low humidity, and morning lows well down into the 60s.

Later this week, the humidity and temps will increase a bit, and some afternoon storms will be possible again Thursday through the weekend.

Tropics...

Gert is a tropical storm that is scraping just east of Bermuda today. This will head into the open north Atlantic waters this week.

Nothing else of special interesting the Atlantic Basin right now. We will continue to monitor tropical waves emerging off of Africa though.

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