What a beautiful day! 11am temps are slowly warming into the mid 70s and dewpoints are way down in the lower 60s. Combine that nice airmass with a lot of sun, and we have ourselves a beautiful Saturday out there.

Good day for taking a walk, doing some outdoor work, or just spending some time on the front porch. Of course, with college football getting into full swing today, I think a lot of folks will likely be spending time indoors. I certainly can't fault you for that. Gotta love a nice beautiful day on the first full day of college football action....doesn't get much better.... Enjoy!

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Ernesto is now a tropical depression, and the NHC has issued its final advisory on the system. However, strong winds are still occurring to the east of the center as the system takes on extra-tropical characteristics.

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Ernesto made landfall just prior to midnight just west of Cape Fear, NC. At the time of landfall, the official intensity from the NHC was sustained winds at 70mph with a pressure of 988mb. We will see in time what the official final intensity was when everything gets evaluated down the road.

For our area, we are doing well, and most of the rain is exiting to the northeast. Actually, it feels very nice outside right now with temps in the mid to upper 60s and a breeze out of the north.

Hopefully, everyone that was and is in the the direct path of Ernesto fared well with the storm.

On a different note, I was saddened by the offensive performance of my Mississippi State Bulldogs last night. The defense looked very good, but man, the offense had some struggles. Hopefully we can get it going. But congrats to South Carolina on a hard-fought win last night.

And, my whole family continues to battle some sort of cold-allergy nasty thing. My wife has had it the worst, and she has had very little sleep this week. I am in the process of battling it now...you might notice that I sound a bit stopped up on the air today.

More later as time allows. It has been a busy period here at News 14 Carolina. Baby being born, new staff coming aboard, tropical storm making landfall, live hits around the clock for over the past 24 hours....I think everyone could use some quiet weather for a few days!

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5pm Advisory....

Ernesto is still a strong tropical storm as of the 5pm advisory, but it would not take much to see the system become a Category 1 hurricane. I still think there is a chance that will occur prior to landfall.

Official NHC track has indeed shifted eastward with a NC landfall now forecast. I think somewhere around Cape Fear/Wilmington is a good track.

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Check out that wave height from the buoy linked in the post below....13.1 feet now!

Recon indicating Ernesto is VERY close to becoming a hurricane....will be interesting to see what the NHC does with their 5pm advisory.

Looks like a little bit of an eastward jog has taken place this afternoon. To me, looks like somewhere between the NC/SC border region and Wilmington are the most likely landfall areas as of now.

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http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41004

Wave height almost 9 feet now at this buoy 41 miles SE of Charleston, SC.

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Ernesto Strengthening

Ernesto's sustained winds are up to 60mph as of the 11am advisory. The system is organizing, and I think it has a pretty good chance of achieving hurricane intensity by landfall.

A strengthening system is more damaging upon landfall than a weakening one, and I fear this might possibly catch some coastal residents a bit off-guard. While we are not dealing with a major hurricane here, I think in the areas very close to where the center makes landfall will take a pretty good shot. The primary area for landfall looks to be from about Georgrtown, SC to Wilmington, NC this evening.

For our viewing area, rainfall rates will increase again this afternoon and evening, and a flash flood watch remains in effect from I-77 eastward. Look for lots of rain this afternoon and tonight. Winds should not be a huge problem around here, but we could see some gusts over 30mph at times tonight. The biggest wind and power outage problems should remain just east of the viewing area.

Keep it tuned to News 14 Carolina all day and night. We will be here tracking Ernesto with you live.

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Back...

Back in the saddle this morning after a few days out of town. Ernesto poised to move in, and it will be a wet period around here. Also, I have concerns that hurricane force winds will be observed in some spots on the northern SC coast and up the NC coast. I am just delving into the forecast information right now, and I will try to have more on for you later.

Long day of live hits on the way. I believe the plan at this point is for live weather hits to happen around the clock through tomorrow, so you can always check with News 14 for the latest live weather information.

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Models continue to gradually shift eastward...concensus is for a Florida landfall after crossing Cuba. After that, a track up the Eastern Seaboard is shown on most modelling. However, the 6z GFS stalls Ernesto in the northeast Gulf, giving us a ton of rain late in the week as that tropical moisture overruns a wedge in place at the surface in the Carolinas. However, like I mentioned, most modelling keeps Ernesto moving up the Eastern Seaboard.

Keep it tuned to News 14 Carolina for all of the latest information.

I will be out of town for a few days and will not have access to post here on the blog. I will be back and posting again by Wednesday evening, so check back then. We should be in the final countdown for Ernesto's U.S. landfall by then.

God bless...

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Let me say this right off of the bat....Ernesto has been a tricky system to forecast for, and I have a lower degree of confidence about the forecast than I normally would in this type of situation. The upper air pattern next week over the U.S. is a rather complex one, and that in turn is making the eventual track of Ernesto even trickier than normal to figure out.

The shear that had been affecting Ernesto has essentially ended, and in response to that, Ernesto has rather rapidly organized into the first hurricane of this Atlantic hurricane season (remember the parachute reference below?). The outflow looks good in all directions around the hurricane, and I expect strengthening to continue today...maybe even become a Category 2 hurricane by tonight.

Due to the center reforming under the deep convection several times yesterday and last night, the system has stepped northward while the overall motion has continued to the WNW. Due to those northerly "steps," Ernesto will now make a close brush with Haiti and will cross Cuba in some form or fashion. A big key to the intensity forecast for Ernesto will be how long it stays over Cuba. If the system only spends about 12 hours or so over Cuba, then I still like the chances of Ernesto becoming a major hurricane over the Gulf. However, if it remains over Cuba for an extended period of time, or it crosses in an area where there are 5-6 thousand foot tall mountains, then it could be harder for Ernesto to get its act back together quickly enough to become a major hurricane. We shall see....

Almost every computer model has shifted its eventual U.S. landfall point eastward now (see below). Most models point to a Florida landfall, and based on the upper air data I am seeing, I am going to adjust my thinking as well. At this point in time with the data available to me, I think a Florida landfall is looking more and more likely. However, this track forecast depends on a weakness in the high pressure northeast of the system, and those are tough to get a handle on sometimes. So, obviously the forecast will have to continue to be adjusted with time.

Stay tuned...I will post a bit more later in the morning....

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Hurricane Ernesto

Well, just like that a recon plane has determined that Ernesto is now a hurricane. More later....

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Ernesto Rapidly Strengthening

Ernesto is rapidly strengthening and will soon be a hurricane. And, some big changes might be needed to the forecast track ideas. Let me go over all of the early morning data, and I will post more later this morning....

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