Saturday Evening Thoughts...

Short on time tonight, so some quick hits here...

• A little light rain tonight...no big deal. A little snow possible in the mountains tonight.
• Arctic front moves through tomorrow. Winds could be rather gusty out of the northwest, especially tomorrow afternoon. Up in the mountains, upslope snows will break out Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.
• By Monday morning, I think many places will be in the upper teens if the winds die down enough.
• Lots of cold weather next week...highs in the 40s most days and lots of lows way down into the 20s...even some teens possible at times.
  
• Our next system looks to roll through Thursday into Friday. My gut feeling I am developing with this one is that it is primarily a rain-producer for us...maybe a mix at the onset of precip. But, still more questions than answers with this one, so stay tuned.
• I still like the idea of a big blast of arctic air moving in sometime between February 3-6.

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Quick Friday evening post...

Saturday will be a great day in the Carolinas with lows of sun and many folks topping out in the lower 60s. Enjoy!

A weak, moisture-starved system skirts off to our south Saturday night, and a few sprinkles or flurries are possible. But, this is not a big deal, and most places will likely not see any measurable precipitation.

Another arctic front moves through Sunday, and it will be pretty breezy Sunday afternoon as cold air advection takes place. By Monday morning, many of us will likely be close to 20 degrees.

One difference in the upcoming arctic airmass to move in from the last one is that the upcoming one will stick around or a while. Look for below average temps all week next week.

I still like the chances of some type of storm system rolling through our area Wednesday or Thursday, but the details are still anybody's guess. Solutions range from a significant winter storm for the South (as the Canadian showed Friday) to a mostly rain system for the Carolinas (per the European recently, although some wedging is in place at the start) to anything in between. So stay tuned....

Have a great weekend. I will be the evening met for the Charlotte side of things through the weekend....

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Thursday Evening

Not much change in my thoughts this evening. Cold air surging in now, and we will struggle to reach the low to mid 40s tomorrow. Lows tonight will be in the lower 20s....maybe even a few upper teens if the wind dies down early enough. Definitely cold. Protect those pets, and bundle the kids up before sending them off to school in the morning.

Milder this weekend with highs rebounding mainly into the 50s. Our weak system Saturday night into Sunday looks too moisture-starved to produce significant precip around here, and even if precip occurs, the low levels of the atmosphere would probably be too warm for snow. So, we might see a sprinkle (or possible a flurry) early Sunday, but nothing to be concerned with.

Another shot of cold air surges in here for Monday, and I think basically all of next week will feature below average temps. Toward the end of the week, there are still signs of a storm system sometime aound Friday. But any details are impossible to forecast right now.

Behind that system, another shot of cold air surges in here around next weekend. I still think that shot of arctic air has the chance to be the coldest one yet, but we shall see.

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Wednesday Quick Hit

Took a couple of days to back away from the weather a bit Monday and Tuesday. I still checked on things from time to time, but not with the intensity I normally would. I was mentally exhausted after last week's work. We had the little winter event Thursday, then swithed into full planning and coverage mode of the little event Sunday. Just needed a bit of time to breathe after that.

At any rate, cold is the word the next couple of weeks. One blast of arctic air moves in tomorrow, then another one early next week, and then another one moves in by the end of next week. The blast for the end of next week looks like the coldest one of them all, and it could feature some of the coldest temps we have seen in a while.

As for precip chances, to me, the northern branch generally looks too dominant over the next week or so to get any big systems going up the East coast. I can't rule out a few flurries at some point, but I am skeptical. However, I think there is some potential toward the end of next week and into the following week.

I would be surprised if we made it through mid-February without a good winter weather threat or two. But we shall see.

Everyone have a great day!

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10pm Update...

Things winding down now. Rain will end overnight.

Reports of icing in trees came in in Rowan and Stanly counties in the Charlotte market. Up in the Triad market, lots of icing reports have come in, but primarily on elevated surfaces.

Thanks for all of your help with the reports this evening!

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Freezing Rain Advisory - Rowan and Iredell Counties

NCZ035037-056-057-502-220500-
/O.EXA.KGSP.ZR.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-070122T0500Z/
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GREATER CALDWELL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...HICKORY...
SALISBURY...LENOIR
555 PM EST SUN JAN 21 2007

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR TO AROUND FREEZING FOR A GOOD CHUNK
OF THE EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT...
MAINLY FROM HICKORY EASTWARD. LIGHT ICING OF TREES AND POWER
LINES AND PERHAPS SOME OVERPASSES WILL DEVELOP. ACCUMULATIONS OF
FREEZING RAIN ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH THROUGH THIS EVENING.

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
FOR SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

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Salisbury

Just before 5pm, the temp in Salisbury had dropped to 30 degrees. So, for our friends up in Rowan County, some minor icing will be possible on some elevated surfaces for the next few hours. But, I still expect no ice on roads and no power outages.

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4:30pm Update...

Things are generally going as expected since the post early this morning.

The Triad market continues to see freezing rain, and the counties up along the Virginia border could see up to 0.25" of ice through this evening. In Greensboro itself, the 4pm observation is light freezing rain with a temp os 31 and a dewpoint of 27. Some minor icing is possible in the Triad itself through this evening, but like I mentioned before, this is no crippling ice storm.

For the Charlotte market, lots of cold rain continues to fall. The one exception is up in Rowan county. Salisbury has just dropped down to 32 degrees. So, some glazing is possible up that way on some trees, powerlines, and especially exposed metal surfaces, but again, this is no big deal. I am not anticipating any travel problems or power outages in the Charlotte News 14 Carolina market.

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11:30am Thoughts

Precip is spreading in. For most of the Charlotte region, this will mainly be a cold rain. But a brief burst of sleet or two is possible. However, this is just simply not a big deal in terms of wintry weather for that area.

Now, I still have concerns for some icing up in parts of the Triad viewing area. That will be the area to watch closely today into this evening.....

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Sunday Morning Thoughts

A quick look at the morning data reveals to me that the trend with our incoming storm system continues to be a warmer one. I still think some relatively minor icing could occur in the Triad viewing area, but it does not look like a huge deal.

For the Charlotte region, this really is looking like simply rain. Sure, we might see a very brief interval of some sleet or freezing rain, but this does not look like it will be of any concern. No big deal at all.

There is always the chance of a last minute change, but dewpoints are rising, and wet bulbs, at least across the Charlotte region, will likely be above freezing by later today. That means game over for freezing rain.

Looks like the warmer solution that came in on Stormcast yesterday evening was indeed correct and not a one-run hiccup.

Everyon have a great Sunday.

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