>> Friday, January 18, 2013
As always after a snow event, some folks wind up doing well in the snow department while others don't. That was definitely the case with this system.
I am still compiling snow reports as of this typing, but I am pretty pleased with my snowfall forecast for the Triad area and points north into southern Virginia. Many, many spots, especially around the Triad, had some intense periods of thundersnow, which is always really neat to experience. All in all, most snow totals fell in line with the ranges I had outlined in this area.
However, I am disappointed in how the forecast for the Charlotte area and back into the southern mountains to around Asheville turned out. This is the portion of the forecast that did not go overly well. For the Charlotte area, I had gone with 1-4", and in many spots, that simply didn't happen....the changeover to snow from rain was too late to put snow on the ground in many instances in that region.
For the disappointed snow fans around the region, I am sorry it didn't work out this time. As always, I will look at what worked and what didn't work with the forecast, see what can be learned, and move forward.
To me, the first warning shots to be fired were the RPM modeling yesterday afternoon. After laying down some impressive snow totals with its morning runs yesterday, as the day wore on, the changeover from rain to snow got later and later with each subsequent run. The trend being indicated on the RPM turned out to be real for the southern piedmont, and the result was a lack of accumulating snow in the southern portions of NC, some of the southern mountains, and the Upstate.
Moving forward, we will get something we have not had a lot of recently..... sunshine. In fact, each day today through much of next week should feature a good deal of sun.
It still appears a good blast of arctic air should arrive by Tuesday next week. Some piedmont spots (mainly in northern NC) might not get above freezing for highs Tuesday. Lows by Wednesday should be in the teens for most.
Here's today's video.... a look at the previous system and a look ahead...