Rain... and some snow?

>> Wednesday, January 16, 2013

Below the video is my discussion, and I run down all of the modeling and give my thoughts on the snow potential later tomorrow and tomorrow night in today's video. Please give it a look....


First of all, more rain at times today, and then our next system spreads another shield of rain in by later tonight.

First things first, we will see a soaking rain for much of the region tomorrow...some folks could easily eclipse 1" or even 2" of rain.

This is a powerful upper air low pressure area that will be weakening as it pulls into the Carolinas. I suggested in my videos earlier this week that the models might trend this system stronger and stronger as they got a better handle on it, and they have done just that.

As that upper air low pulls in, it will draw in colder air aloft from the north, and then as you have heavy precipitation, it will pull that cold air down toward the ground from above. That's called dynamic cooling.

In a situation like this, the line is always razor-thin between moderate to heavy rain and moderate to heavy snow....and it can kick back and forth dependent on precipitation rates.

But with all of that said, I think many spots in NC and some spots in northern SC will see the rain end as at least a brief period of snow.

Now, the ground is quite warm with all of the recent warmth, so it will take some effort to get snow accumulations. However, with that said, I do think some of us will see some snow on the ground.

This is a little earlier in the game than I normally like to do it, but here is my VERY preliminary snowfall map. This is 100% subject to change, and I will put out my final map tomorrow morning.

Below are the snow totals from the 0z European model and the 6z NAM:

0z Euro:

6z NAM:


Anonymous 8:23 AM  

Let's go NAM!!!!!!!!

Corinne 8:51 AM  


Anonymous 11:39 AM  

6z NAM seems more promising and encouraging for snow lovers: maybe couple inches on the ground in CLT metro. Even right now as I write this, if the temp outside is several degrees colder, the rain that's falling might change to ice or snow. What a difference has occurred in our weather in just the past 72 hours!
- TK

Anonymous 12:15 PM  

What are odds that this could trend even colder, esp for the eastern parts of the state? I would think the bitter dense cold air up north would have to get pulled in quicker because of how dense it is.

Anonymous 2:03 PM  

12z NAM 39hrs out has heavy snow for the Triad area!! Hope it comes true!!


Matthew East 3:08 PM  

System could trend a little bit colder aloft if the more intense solutions verify. However, I think the 6z and 12z NAM are about as far south as the significant snow will make it overall.....roughly.

Dylan Long 3:09 PM  

I must say, living in the high country makes these types of events fun.

Anonymous 11:17 PM  

Will the temps raise quickly on friday. We
will be working above and below the water surface.

  © Blogger templates Shiny by Ourblogtemplates.com 2008

Back to TOP