>> Wednesday, January 16, 2013
All in all, no huge surprises with the 12z suite of model guidance. No reason at this point for me to change the accumulation ideas I put out this morning. Like I mentioned this morning, I will put out my final map tomorrow morning. It will be at that point that, if need be, I will up totals for some areas.
The 12z NAM was once again intense and was healthy with the NC snow amounts. The European model also put down some nice amounts as well for much of NC.
There's our upper air low in Texas:
North trend?? For those in NC and northern SC, that is that last thing you want if you are wanting snow. There is some subtropical ridging near the Bahamas that the models continue to get a handle on, and it is possible that our system could trend a little farther north.
That is a concern in the back of my mind. However, I think with the the polar vortex sitting where it is, as well as the trough position in the eastern US, there is only so far north this can go.
The duration of snow with this one will be relatively brief, but quite intense. But while it's snowing, it could be a very heavy, wet snow.
There are some similarities in this system to the early March 2009 system. However, this system isn't quite as strong or cold, but it is in the ballpark if the stronger modeling is correct.
I do not think the snow will be as extensive or will the totals be as significant as they were over a wide area with that system. However, much like in that system, rain will fall leading up to the kick over to snow, and the rain will be heavy at times. Then, as colder air aloft crashes into the system, rain will kick over to snow from northwest to southeast, likely in the mountains and northern foothills first.
At that point, as the deformation band pivots through, a period of heavy snow is possible, especially for the mountains, foothills, and locations roughly near and north of I-40 up into Virginia.
Southern Piedmont and even northern Upstate snow fans do have a chance....but it will depend on how the cold air as well as that deformation band behave.
This is a dynamic system, and changes are likely. But that's how I see it as of now.
Here's my preliminary map from this morning.