Some sleet and a few snowflakes have indeed been spotted around portions of the area. But so far, the heaviest precip is still south of the area.
Some freezing rain is possible tonight, but a big limiting factor could be precipitation rates. If we don't see heavier rates of precip, icing will be hard to come by.
No real changes from my post below. This continues to look like a very minor event for most....
My blinders are on...I am really focusing on the Triad market...that is my o-air responsibility tonight. I refer you over to Jeff Crum's blog...he is handling the Charlotte market.
Temperatures and dewpoint have responded about how I expected this afternoon. If the Triad can realize some heavier precip, then the temperature should wet bulb down to 32 or lower for a good chunk of the area.
However, the thing that has been bugging me about this forecast is REALLY bugging me now. That is that heavier precip might remain south of the Triad. If that is the case, then evaporative cooling would not be able to carry temps below freezing.
This is beginning to have the stench of an event that produces light rain at 34 degrees.
For the time being, I will continue to mention the chance of some freezing rain tonight into tomorrow morning for the Triad and points north and west. Some ice accumulation would be possible on elevated surfaces. However, to me, this just doesn't look like a big event at all.
But as you well know, things can change quickly with systems like this. So, I will be watching the radar and temperature trends very carefully this evening.
The counties in the brither blue shading are countines the NWS has placed uner a Winter Weather Advisory. The darker shade of blue is a Winter Storm Watch.
First of all, feels like I might be starting to go down with the flu my family has been battling all week. Hopefully not....
On to the weather event tonight into tomorrow. Taken at face value, really all modeling is showing only rain for the immediate Charlotte area. Now, as is usually yhe case, the models will probably under-estimate the amount of dry air in place initially as the precip moves in. If that is the case, then there will be a few pockets of sleet as the precip starts, but all indications are that the immediate Charlotte area will remain at or above freezing.
However, as you head up toward I-40, that is where temps could tip below freezing later tonight, and there could be some light icing on elevated surfaces.
For the Triad, tricky call here. This area of the northwest Piedmont will be the area that sees the most ice potential of our three coverage areas. It looks like there could be an initial burst of sleet or snow as the precip moves in, but then we change over to rain or freezing rain, depending on surface temps. While the MOS data really keeps most spots at or above freezing, that seems unlikely. For the Triad area up to the Virginia border counties, ice accumulations of up to a tenth of an inch could occur.
There are some concerns to this forecast. For instance, the NAM and the GFS really differ on the amount of precip that will fall...the GFS being lighter. Also, if the airmass is dramatically drier than models indicate, there could be some minor icing farther south than I have indicated above.
For now though, my thoughts really line up well with the NWS, and I like their placement of the Winter Weather Advisories.
I am in the forecast chair for the midday shift in the Charlotte and Triad markets today. As is always the case with winter weather events around here, this is a tough forecast. However, after reviewing the morning data, some thoughts....
For the Charlotte region....
Could see a little light rain or some sleet pellets tomorrow afternoon, but most of the precip will hold off until tomorrow night. Portions of the viewing area will then see a period of freezing rain before kicking over to all rain Friday morning. In terms of ice accumulations, the chances for accumulation will get better the farther north you go in the viewing area up toward I-40. There could be some slick travel spots for the Friday morning commute.
For the Triad region....
This is looking like a more significant event for this area as opposed to the Charlotte region. Precip could begin as some sort of sleet/snow mixture tomorrow evening, but I think rather quickly we are looking at mainly freezing rain. Temperatues then struggle to climb above freezing Friday. In terms of ice accumulations, I do think the potential for some ice accumulation is rather high. How much accumulation is impossible to say right now, but the Friday morning commute could be rather difficult, and I won't rule out the possibility of some power outages.
This is a fluid situation, and this forecast will probably have to be adjusted as we approach the event. Lots of variables are in play, such as how heavy the precip will be and how cold and dry the airmass will be at the surface and aloft. A degree difference at any level of the atmosphere will make a big difference in this forecast.
We will get a better idea of the specifics of this event tomorrow. Stay tuned....
Well, I am hunkered down in the trenches. My wife and all three of my children have Type A Flu. At the moment, my wife and oldest daughter are having the worst go of it. Thankfully, I have not come down with it, and I am trying my best to take care of them and not get it at the same time. So far, so good.
As far as the weather goes, I am very interested in late Thursday into Friday morning. It sure looks like the western part of North Carolina will see some freezing rain. I am concerned especially about the Triad region. Taken at face value, the 18z NAM prints out over 0.9" of freezing precip in Greensboro. Now there will be a very warm layer aloft, and all of the would not accumulate as ice, but that is alarming.
I am planning to be back at work for a bit tomorrow, and I will delve into more specifics then. As it stands now, I do think we have some potential for some freezing rain issues by Thursday night in the western portions of North Carolina.
I can't give much more information because I simply have not had the time like I normally would to look at this event given the events at home.
Well again...rain amounts were disappointing with our system last night. Many spots saw less than 0.25." Once again, this was another system where the main upper air dynamics pulled way off to our northwest, and the system was fading as it moved in.
Severe weather was not an issue in the Charlotte or Triad regions, but there was some damage last night off to our east in the Raleigh region.
Quiet weather now settles in for a few days.
And I am watching the weather Thursday through Saturday. The overall setup is very close to one that can produce ice in the favored cold air damming regions of North Carolina (even though at face value, most modeling indicates just cold rain for most). It is close, and it bears watching to see if things begin to trend more in that direction over the next couple of days.
I probably won't be posting much the next day or so. I have two sick kiddoes and a pretty sick wife.....
Well, it looks like severe weather will not be a big problem for our area. Showers with a few embedded storms will continue to push eastward overnight.
Read more...Interesting to watch how things have unfolded today. Much of the Charlotte region popped up into the 60s this afternoon as some sunshine worked in. Down in South Carolina, Greenville is still in the wedge with a temp of 50, while Columbia is sitting at 76.
Storms have been intense over Georgia, but they are weakening as they encounter the more stable air over the western upstate of SC. We will have to see how things evolve as they hit the more unstable air over our area once again.
Our next system continues to progress our way this morning. The bulk of the rain will move through this evening into the early part of the overnight, however some passing showers through the day today are possible.
Concerning the severe weather threat....it will all depend on how unstable our airmass becomes. We will likely have some sort of wedge in place for much of the day, but modeling indicates the wedge scouring out for the Charlotte region this evening.
If we do get some instability in here, then severe weather could be a problem this evening and tonight.
We will watch it closely...keep it tuned to News 14 Carolina.
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