Saturday Morning

As expected, the precip off to our west really fell apart as we went through the night last night as it tried to enter the Carolinas.

Some quick notes this morning.....

• Still looks like a quick shot of showers later Tuesday or Tuesday night.
  
• I am pretty confident we will have a cold air damming set-up in place as our next system moves in Thursday or Friday.
• The GFS is a bit faster than most other modeling with bringing the precip in Thursday.
• However, almost all modeling is showing a CAD set-up.
• As it stands now, I think we have the chance for a period of wintry weather Thursday or Thursday night before the atmosphere warms and we have the chance for some healthy rains Friday.

Check the video for details, and please continue to let me know any thoughts or suggestions you have with the new blog layout. Thanks!

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Friday early evening....

The radar is impressive back in parts of Mississippi and Alabama, and it took the models until the very last second to catch on to the amount of precip falling in the Deep South. Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for parts of Alabama, southern Tennessee, and northern Georgia.

I also see my alma mater, Mississippi State, closed campus today at 1:00 due to icy roads developing. If you are interested, you can find more information by clicking here.

While the radar looks impressive, and we will probably see some radar returns stream into North Carolina later tonight, our airmass is extremely dry. So, most of that precip you will see on radar will simply evaporate before reaching the ground.

However, parts of north Georgia, and even western parts of the Upstate of South Carolina, could pick up a dusting to an inch of snow later tonight. And, I do think some flurries will be possible early Saturday up into parts of North Carolina, but it just looks like our airmass is too dry for anything significant.

Down the line, our Tuesday system looks less impressive today. I will continue to mention shower chances, but I have removed any thunderstorm warning from my forecasts. Actually, rainfall amounts are trending on the light side as well.

And, I continue to watch the Thursday-Friday system next week. The GFS has trended a bit warmer with that system today, but it is way too early for details like that. I am mentioning a chance of some wintry weather as the precip begins Thursday before kicking over to all rain.

Again, plenty of time to keep watching that one...

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Ice Storm Warnings in Mississippi

You don't see those every day back in Mississippi. But, the NWS is mentioning up to 0.50" of ice accumulation in the deeper purple shaded counties....serious stuff.

Working on our forecast package now.....

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Brrr.....

It is cold out there this morning....a few selected lows this morning...

• Charlotte 15
• Greensboro 18
• Winston Salem 14
• Gastonia 18
• Boone 9
• RDU 21
• Sugar Mountain summit -2
• Blowing Rock 5
• App Ski Mountain 3
• Banner Elk -1
• Beech Mountain -3

Check out some of the High Country Web Cams...I have a link on the right. Lots of snow on the ground this morning.


Browse around and let me know what you think about the new design, and I would love to hear any suggestions that you have.

I am still watching with interest the storm system that should move through next Thursday or Friday. The GFS and the European continue to hint at some ice potential in the western Carolinas, at least as that next system begins. A classic cold air damming configuration keeps showing itself on those models, and has been for a couple of days now. Plenty of time on that one...

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Thursday Evening...

Well, the overhaul of the blog is mostly complete. I will be making some further improvements here and there, and I want to know what you think....so feel free to chime in!

On the right side column, you will fine some various weather images you might find useful. Below that are some links I often use in the forecasting process. Also in that ride-side column, you can see the latest videos I have composed....useful in case of insomnia.

Tonight is a cold one with lows dipping into the upper teens in many spots. So, bundle up in the morning, and be sure and bundle the kids up too!

Friday will be cold with many spots only in the upper 30s for highs in spite of a sunny sky.

Another storm system will cruise by this weekend, but I am just mentioning some clouds Friday night into Saturday and leaving the weekend forecast dry.

Temperatures will moderate through the weekend with some 50s gradually returning for highs. Our next cold front will swing through Tuesday. That system could wind up producing severe weather in the Tennessee Valley and Lower Mississippi Valley Monday into Tuesday, and I have mentioned some chance for storms here Tuesday. We shall see....

Further down the line, another system will approach Friday. The European model has, for several runs in a row, indicated the potential for some ice in western North Carolina with that system, and it looks like the GFS is gradually getting on-board as well.

Plenty of time to watch that one, and it is obviously still a long way off.

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Under Construction

The blog is undergoing some major and much-needed renovations. I will be working on it and tweaking it this evening.

Cold night tonight....next significant rain chance comes Tuesday, and I am watching some interesting developments shown on some modeling around next Friday. More later...

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Wednesday Afternoon....

It was not a restful night East household last night. Our oldest daughter is sick, so obviously she didn't sleep well. Our middle daughter did pretty well, but our baby was also restless and not sleeping much. Granted, we never get much in the way of unbroken sleep periods, but last night was worse than usual. So, I feel like I am dragging quite a bit today...tough to get the fog out of my head...

Below is my posting from News14.com....

FOG WAS SLOW TO CLEAR

Another arctic blast on the way

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THIS AFTERNOON: Partly cloudy. High 52.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low 33

TOMORROW: Morning clouds and a sprinkle possible. Clearing and blustery in the afternoon. High 48.

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Very dense fog blanketed the region this morning, and it was very slow to erode away. However, most spots are seeing a good deal of sun this afternoon with highs making a run at the lower 50s.

Clouds will roll back in tonight as a weak storm system skirts by off to our south. That system might bring a few sprinkles tomorrow morning, but it will not be a big deal in terms of precip. However, our next charge or arctic air is waiting in the wings and will surge in here as tomorrow unfolds. It will become pretty blustery tomorrow afternoon with northwest winds gusting to 25-25mph at times.

Friday will be frigid from start to finish with lows in the mid to upper teens Friday morning and highs in the mid to upper 30s Friday afternoon.

The weekend is now trending on the dry side with moderating temperatures. At this point, I think our next significant rain chance will not be until Tuesday of next week.

Temperatures will be much milder for the first half of next week with 50s and 60s moving back into the Carolinas.

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Icing

Light freezing rain did develop, and like I have been mentioning, it doesn't take much to cause icing on some area roadways. Lots of icy spots around parts of Stanly, Union, and Rowan counties this morning as well as parts of the Triad. In fact, apparently some emergency response personnel have said it could take up to an hour to respond to non-serious wrecks in parts of the area, simply due to the volume of accidents this morning. Temperatures are still close to freezing, so some icing issues could continue to occur through the morning.

Please use extreme caution out there this morning. Any spots that look damp or wet could very well be ice. SLOW DOWN, and increase your following your distance.

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Monday night...

Quick notes here on the light amount of wintry precip possible Tuesday morning.

This is not a big event as precip amounts will be very light. However, it doesn't take much freezing rain to cause problems on some roadways, and that is my main concern tomorrow morning. There will just not be enough precip for any type of power outage problems.

Precip could begin late tonight, and it is possible for a very brief period of snow or sleet. Don't look for any accumulations.....again, think light. Very quickly, the main type of precipitation possible would be freezing drizzle or light freezing rain. And with temps in the 20s, that could cause some slick spots on some roads Tuesday morning.

Temperatures will slowly rise through the day, and most modeling indicates temperatures rising above freezing by early afternoon, at the latest. The city of Charlotte itself is not under an advisory as I am typing this, but Cleveland, Gaston, Iredell, and Rowan counties as well as the Triad area are under advisories.

Let me say this again....what precip does fall will be light. But, the concern is for some slick spots on area roadways.

Check the road conditions before you head out of the door tomorrow morning.

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Monday Afternoon....

I am watching the potential for some light freezing rain or freezing drizzle in the morning carefully. It looks like area NWS offices will hoist some advisories for the period.

Precip amounts will be light, but it doesn't take much to cause some slick roads, especially if precip falls when temps are still in the 20s.

I will have some additional information later this evening, and I have plans on cutting a video this evening as well if time allows.

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Sunday Evening...

A quick postmortem on the storm system yesterday.

Looking back at the forecast I put out leading up to the system on Friday, there is no way around it. The accumulation forecast was a bust for the Charlotte and Triangle regions. However, the accumulation ideas I put out for the Triad itself and the foothills were pretty good.

Let's talk about the accumulation bust for the Charlotte region. It will all be a little clearer when the NWS releases their case study of the event. However, I had the right idea about the precipitation getting in here. The problem looks like it was with temperatures aloft. If memory serves from morning sounding data, the temperatures between about 3000 and 5000 feet above the surface were roughly a degree higher than expected. Because of that, it took longer to switch over from rain to snow than I was anticipating. And because of the ground becoming very wet, there was really no real chance of significant snow accumulation (unless we had a period of heavy snow) with temperatures remaining above freezing. So, due to the slightly warmer temps aloft, and therefore longer period of rain, for most spots around 7 hours or snow went for naught, in terms of accumulations.

Why was the temperature aloft a bit warmer than anticipated? Good question. I suspect it has to do with the mountains slowing the progress of the colder temperatures aloft moving in from the west.

So, we get up, dust ourselves off, and move forward.

Dangerously cold tonight with lows in the 10-15 degree range. Some communities could dip into the upper single digits!

I am keeping an eye on Tuesday morning. Moisture will gather ahead of an approaching cold front, and with low temps in the 20s Tuesday morning, if the rain begins early enough in the morning, it will be some light freezing rain or freezing drizzle. Now, this is not a major weather event. However, it doesn't take much freezing rai nto cause some slick roads. So, it is something to watch.

As I opined last night, looks like our Thursday system will stay way to the south. Next weekend's forecast is complicated, but at this time, I am not excited about any wintry weather possibilities.

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