Saturday Evening Post....

No video this evening, but I wanted to put up a quick post.

First of all, winds will get pretty gusty tomorrow as the cold front approaches and moves through. Winds will gust out of the south to 20 or 30mph in the Piedmont with even breezier conditions up in the mountains. We will see showers and maybe a storm or two sweep through tomorrow. A few severe wind events look possible, but the best severe weather threat will probably be just off to our north in the mid-Atlantic.

Christmas Eve will feature lots of sun and highs in the 50s here in the Piedmont.

And, I am just about ready to completely throw in the towel for any snow chance Christmas Day into Wednesday. The GFS does develop a nice coastal low pressure area, but most of the effects remain in eastern North Carolina. And, most modeling is indicating the atmosphere will be just a touch too warm for snow even if we do get some precip in here. So, while I still won't completely rule out a few flurries Tuesday or Tuesday night, the chances are dwindling.

Let's wait until we get Sunday's model data in before completely throwing in the towel....

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Friday Evening...

If you are having trouble viewing the video in the player above, try this direct link. Also, the images got a bit off center....I apologize for that.

The GFS has continued to trend toward the Euro model in the handling of the shortwaves next week. I still think the Euro is handling things better, but taken at face value, the difference is fairly negligible here in terms of sensible weather Tuesday and Tuesday night. Again, at face value, we are looking at some clouds for Christmas and that is about it.

However, if you look at the 500mb chart (see the video) on the Euro, you would really think a big storm system would be blowing up. But, due to a couple of reasons, it is just not happening on most modeling. It would only take a little bit of adjustment in some weather features to get a more significant storm system. Is it likely? Probably not. But we really won't know with more confidence until Sunday when the shortwave gets over the upper air network of North America.

So, for those of you hoping for a few flakes for Christmas, don't give up, just know the odds are against you. I still have flurries going in the forecast. The chances of seeing anything significant are pretty slim, but you never know...

I also want to point out that we should see some showers Sunday as a cold front moves through. More instability has been creeping in here on recent model runs, so I have included a chance for a couple of storms Sunday afternoon as well.

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Suppression City...

If you are hoping for some chance of snow Christmas into Christmas night.....

The good news is that the latest GFS has come around to most other modeling in keeping the two shortwaves separate (see the video from yesterday evening).

The bad news is basically all modeling has the low pressure area suppressed too far to the south to give any meaningful precip to the Carolinas.

So, if you are hoping for snow, it is not time to give up, but a northwest trend in the modeling will have to develop over the weekend. Otherwise, we end up chilly and dry for Christmas.

We probably will not be able to know for sure until later Sunday.

**It looks like Youtube continues to have some issues with their embedded video service. So, if you cannot get the video to render in the post below, you can view it by clicking HERE.

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Thursday Evening Video

By the way, the 18z GFS has come in, and I still think it is lost next week. We will see. Scroll down to the post below to read my thoughts on the modeling today.

Below the video I will include the text from my News 14 Carolina web discussion this evening.

If the video below is not rendering properly, you can click here to view the video.



We have three storm systems that will affect the region through the next seven days. Let's take them one at a time....

Storm system #1:
An area of low pressure is moving from Alabama to off of the Georgia coast tonight. That low pressure will spread some mainly light rain into the Carolinas tonight and last into Friday morning. Rain fall amounts will be pretty light.

We will be left with a wedge in place Friday and Saturday, meaning lots of clouds and some occasional drizzle. It will be chilly with highs only in the 40s. Then, we will watch for the arrival of....

Storm system #2:
An area of low pressure will cut up to the Great Lakes region this weekend, pulling a cold front through here Sunday. I expect a pretty good chance for some showers as the front swing through Sunday, but again, the rain will likely not be overly heavy.

Christmas Eve looks like a quiet day with lots of sun and highs in the 50s. Then comes...

Storm system #3:
This one is tricky. The computer models are all over the place with this one, indicating the Carolinas could see anything from a chilly, dry day to some wintry precip for Christmas Day. As it stands now, I like the idea of an area of low pressure riding up close to the Carolina coastline Christmas Day into Christmas night. If indeed that does occur, we could see some areas of light snow or snow flurries.

Let me stress this point. Nothing at all is set in stone, and I am sure this forecast will have to be adjusted with time. Stay tuned...

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2:45pm Thursday...

I am putting together the afternoon forecast package as we speak, but I wanted to put up a quick post.

Modeling continues to be all over the place with the handling of the Christmas into Wednesday storm system. In short, I think the 12z GFS is horribly mishandling the shortwaves...probably keying on the wrong shortwave, in fact. I think the European has the right general ideas with this system, but you just simply can't take any specifics to heart in this type of pattern in that time frame.

The latest Canadian model has come in and is siding more with the European ideas.

In short, if you are hoping for some sort of wintry weather in the Carolinas Christmas or Christmas night, hope is still alive. Many things have to line up perfectly for us to see some snow, as you all know. What I am saying is at this point, I think we still have a chance that that occurs, but how big a chance, I don't know yet.

I will compose a video and post it later this evening. Keep checking back!

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Weather Video

Short on time today, but in general, model madness rules for Christmas. 6z GFS showed a major snowstorm for the western Carolinas, the 12z shows rain, the 0z European model showed snow Christmas night, GFS ensembles show no storm at all! 12z European is not in yet. I went with a chilly, wet day in my formal forecast today, but anything is possible. Watch the video for more specifics...

**Edit to add the 12z European shows a nice snow for much of North Carolina with the Christmas storm. Lots will change, but it sure is interesting to look at.**

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Sunday Evening...

It was indeed windy today here in the Piedmont, but it was even more so up in the mountains. It looks like the summit of Grandfather Mountain recorded a peak gust of 95mph!

I have also enjoyed looking at the High Country Webcams this afternoon and seeing the snow fall.

Cold the next few nights and only in the 40s for highs again tomorrow. I will think a few backyards might hit the upper teens Tuesday morning.

I also note the 12z European model is a little farther south and colder with our Thursday-Friday storm system....it actually indicates some ice potential in North Carolina taken at face value. The details with this system will not be clear for a couple of days. The ice is probably a long-shot, but we will keep watching.

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