Friday Evening...

If you are having trouble viewing the video in the player above, try this direct link. Also, the images got a bit off center....I apologize for that.

The GFS has continued to trend toward the Euro model in the handling of the shortwaves next week. I still think the Euro is handling things better, but taken at face value, the difference is fairly negligible here in terms of sensible weather Tuesday and Tuesday night. Again, at face value, we are looking at some clouds for Christmas and that is about it.

However, if you look at the 500mb chart (see the video) on the Euro, you would really think a big storm system would be blowing up. But, due to a couple of reasons, it is just not happening on most modeling. It would only take a little bit of adjustment in some weather features to get a more significant storm system. Is it likely? Probably not. But we really won't know with more confidence until Sunday when the shortwave gets over the upper air network of North America.

So, for those of you hoping for a few flakes for Christmas, don't give up, just know the odds are against you. I still have flurries going in the forecast. The chances of seeing anything significant are pretty slim, but you never know...

I also want to point out that we should see some showers Sunday as a cold front moves through. More instability has been creeping in here on recent model runs, so I have included a chance for a couple of storms Sunday afternoon as well.