Major, unusually strong storm system to impact the Southeast....

Nothing really profound here, but just wanted to reiterate what a major and unusual storm system this will be for the Southeast. It is not everyday that you see an upper level low develop to the intensity that it appears this one will.

The impacts will be wide-ranging. For the Carolinas and north Georgia, this will be a huge rainmaker, and I am quite concerned about flooding problems developing, especially from the NC mountains and foothills down into the Upstate and north Georgia.

Severe weather is also something that needs to be watched Monday and Tuesday from Georgia up through the Carolinas and into the mid-Atlantic. The dynamics will be through the roof....the bigger question will be instability.

Finally, snow. If the upper low develops as most models have it now, some snow will fall from much of Tennessee down into the Tennessee Valley. As the powerful upper low pivots east and northeast, the snow will spread into the mountains from north Georgia into NC and the Virginias. Some wrap-around flakes would even be possible outside of the mountains in the Carolinas, but it doesn't appear the low will take a favorable track to give NC spots much snow once outside of the mountains.

It is far to early to talk amounts, but in this type of setup, some areas of heavy, wet snow are quite possible, especially in the higher elevations.

That's all for now. I will post more over the next couple of days....

Read more...

Friday....

A quick edition of the video today discussing the big storm system early next week....give it a look.

Read more...

Happy Thanksgiving!

Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours! Fantastic weather for the holiday as well!

Here is a Thanksgiving edition of the Carolina Weather Video. Today, it is all about the wide range of possibilities with our next major storm system early next week.

Read more...

Cooler, drier air blowing in...

A cold front is advancing through the region today, and breezy conditions will be the rule. In the Piedmont, winds will gust over 25 or 30mph at times....up in the mountains, winds could gust over 50 or 60mph. Piedmont highs will be in the 60s.

Fantastic weather will take hold for Thanksgiving and Friday with highs in the 60s, lows in the 30s, and tons of sun.

Next storm system...

A major storm system will swing into the region in the Sunday-Monday timeframe. The details are still a bit up in the air, but it appears a powerful upper air low will close off over the Tennessee Valley. If that's the case, we would have a healthy rain and thunderstorm event, likely including severe weather possibilities. Underneath the upper air low, some snow could occur back in the Tennessee Valley and into the mountains.

These types of features are notoriously difficult to forecast and always have surprises up their sleeves....stay tuned!

Read more...

Mild today...overnight round of showers and storms on tap tonight...

Highs will head into the low and mid 70s for much of the region today as our next system approaches. At the same time, there is a pretty decent severe threat from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley and parts of the Ohio Valley today.

Intense dynamics pull into our region later tonight, and I expect a line of storms to move into the foothills and Piedmont a little after midnight tonight. Instability will be lacking, but there will be enough there to combine with the screaming wind fields aloft to provide the threat of damaging winds and an isolated tornado or two.

This will occur during the overnight hours in our region, so please keep those NOAA weather radios on and in the 'alert' position tonight.

The showers and storms exit early in the day tomorrow, and we will have some afternoon sun.

I expect full sunshine Thanksgiving and Friday with highs in the 60s.

Next system...

Our next intense system will swing in during the Sunday-Monday timeframe. Depending on how the system sets up, another severe weather threat could exist.

Read more...

Mild to start the holiday week....

Highs today and tomorrow will top 70 degrees again in many spots in the region. Like we say over the weekend, we will have a good deal of clouds most of the time through tomorrow, but there will be some peeks of sun at times. Although the main corridor of rain through tomorrow stays west of the mountains, we will have a few showers drift through from time to time.

The next system swings in early Wednesday, so I expect a healthy round of showers and some storms later Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. While I can't rule out severe weather, instability looks to be a little too lacking for a major outbreak. But we will watch it closely.

The weather will then be fantastic for Thanksgiving and the big shopping day Friday with lots of sun and cooler temps.

Weekend forecast woes....

Wow, extremely challenging forecast. Most models had been indicating the next trough splits as it moved into the central US, resulting in a big closed low over the Lower Mississippi Valley that then meanders to the Carolinas by around Monday. The GFS and Canadian are still on board with that scenario, but the 0z Euro broke continuity and makes the northern branch dominant, resulting basically in a dry frontal passage for most in the region. See the video for more...

Read more...