Lots to talk about...

>> Tuesday, December 31, 2013

First of all, quiet weather will unfold today and tomorrow. No problems....

Then on Thursday, our next system will approach. This system looks to bring some rain to the piedmont Thursday afternoon and evening and some snow to the mountains, especially on the backside of the system.

Friday looks quite cold with piedmont highs possibly struggling to make it to around freezing. Then many spots could see lows in the teens Saturday morning.

I am carefully watching the potential for a more significant blast of cold air early next week. In short, the European model has been quite consistent in indicating a pretty historic shot of arctic air for much of the eastern US Sunday-Tuesday next week. I get into all of the graphics associated with this in today's video, but the Euro ensemble mean, while certainly not quite as extreme as the operational European, generally agrees with the operational solution.

The 0z GFS is COMPLETELY different... no arctic air into the Southeast early next week. However, the Canadian is very much in agreement with the European, and I have gone that direction with my forecast.

Again, see the video for much, much more...

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Quiet finish to 2013...

>> Monday, December 30, 2013

Not a whole lot happening over the next few days around the region. However, as a disturbance moves through late tonight, a little bit of light rain or light snow (although moisture is lacking in the dendritic growth zone, the part of the atmosphere needed to generate snowflakes) is a possibility around the Triad and Triangle regions. This will not be a big deal though.

Quiet weather with highs close to average will then unfold tomorrow and Wednesday.

Our next system arrives Thursday, followed by a big shot of cold air by Friday. Then we might have another big shot of cold air early next week.

Please see today's video for all of the details...

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Cool and quiet today & tomorrow... big rain event Saturday night-Sunday...

>> Friday, December 27, 2013

As the title indicates, quiet weather will stick around between now and early Saturday evening for the Carolinas. Then, an area of low pressure, currently forming in the Gulf of Mexico, will lift northeast and move right overhead Sunday morning.

The result will be a big, soaking rain event beginning Saturday night and extending through Sunday morning. Depending on the exact track of the low, some thunderstorms, and maybe a bit of severe weather, could be involved near the coast Sunday.

However, for areas near and northwest of I-85, highs Sunday will only be in the 40s with no threat of severe weather.

I take a look at the longer range as well in today's video:

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Cool weather continues... soaker Saturday night/ Sunday...

>> Thursday, December 26, 2013

I hope everybody had a wonderful Christmas.


A nuisance little bout of freezing rain is ongoing in a few areas this morning. After that departs by mid-morning, we are cool and quite until our next system arrives Saturday night.

See the video for all of the details:

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Much colder just in time for Christmas...

>> Tuesday, December 24, 2013

Much, much colder air has arrived around the region, and it will be here to stay, by and large, for quite some time.

Lows tonight will head into the lower 20s in many Piedmont spots, and I fully expect the normally colder locations to dip into the upper teens.

Christmas Day will be quite chilly in spite of full sunshine with highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s in many Piedmont spots.

There continue to be signs of a fairly cold and possibly unsettled pattern in the eastern US in the longer range. See the video for more.

Have a wonderful Christmas!

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Rain today... much colder by tomorrow...

>> Monday, December 23, 2013

A slow-moving cold front continues to east through the Carolinas. Rain will stick around for much of today, but a much colder airmass is knocking on our door.

See today's video for all of the details on our Christmas forecast as well as some thoughts on the longer rain pattern.

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Very mild December weather.... cold front arrives late Sunday...

>> Friday, December 20, 2013

Lots to talk about in today's video. Near record warmth this weekend, a significant round of severe weather in the Lower Mississippi Valley later tomorrow, rain and some storms around here later Sunday into Monday, cold air for Christmas, and a possible system in the days following Christmas.

Give it a look...

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Big-time warming trend into the weekend...

>> Thursday, December 19, 2013

A significant warming trend begins today around the region. By this weekend, some record high temps will be falling across the region.

A severe weather outbreak is looking possible over parts of the southern Plains/ Mississippi Valley/ TN Valley later Saturday through Sunday morning, and then that front arrives into the Carolinas by late Sunday.

See all of the details on this, plus the Christmas outlook, in today's video:

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Colder today.... but record warmth this weekend....

>> Wednesday, December 18, 2013

Here's is this morning's edition of the video.... give it a look to see what's ahead through the weekend and into Christmas week.

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Dry today... storm system tomorrow....

>> Friday, December 13, 2013

After another dry day today, our next system rolls through tomorrow.

First of all, for the piedmont, this is a rain event, albeit a chilly rain event. In places like the Triad, the temp could very well be in the 30s all day long tomorrow.

As the precip first arrives, a brief period of wintry precip is possible. Outside of the mountains, this will not be a big deal.

However, let me say that I am a bit concerned about some locations in the northwest NC mountains tomorrow. For instance, the NAM model in Boone has a quick hit of some snow followed by an extended period of freezing rain....enough to be significant.

So I would caution those of you in the NW NC mountains and up into the Virginias to pay attention to this system, even though you might not be hearing much about it.

The system will depart in time for dry weather Sunday (aside from some upslope mountain snow), and the dry weather will persist much of next week.

Here's today's video with more:

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Cold and dry through tomorrow.... west Saturday ahead...

>> Thursday, December 12, 2013

Highs today will actually be colder than yesterday as a fresh surge of cold and dry air has arrived. Then, tonight will be quite cold with piedmont lows well down into the 20s..... even a few upper teens in the normally colder spots.

No real changes here to my thinking on our Saturday system. For the piedmont and most of the foothills, this will be a mostly rain event. And it could be a soaker with some spots maybe seeing 1" of rain.

As the precip initially arrives, a period of snow and sleet is likely in the mountains and possible in the northern foothills. However, even in those areas, most spots will see this period of wintry precip be very brief before the transition to rain.

See the video for more details on the Saturday system as well as a look ahead to next week and beyond:

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Cold and dry through Friday, then a wet Saturday...

>> Wednesday, December 11, 2013

Cold and dry arctic will will be the rule around here through Friday. In fact, a reinforcing shot of colder air will arrive in time for colder temps tomorrow than what we will see today.

Our next system still looks to deliver a very wet day around the region Saturday. As I show in the video, if the precip arrives early enough Saturday morning, a very brief bit of wintry precip couldn't be ruled out in the foothills. But even there, that would not be a big deal.

Overall, it looks like a soaking rain event Saturday.

This time around, it is a one day event though, so we are back to dry weather Sunday into much of next week.

Here's today's video:

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>> Monday, December 09, 2013

Above is today's video... give it a look.

North Carolina's little bout with freezing rain has ended this morning as temps have slowly risen above freezing in the vast majority of areas. This was far from a big ice storm around most of North Carolina, but the ice was more significant up in the Virginias, as expected.

We will be dealing with a stubborn wedge today and tonight, so temps will only slowly climb today and hold near steady tonight. Look for occasional rain and drizzle today, tonight, and through tomorrow morning. Some snow is possible up in the Virginias tomorrow morning as the final wave of low pressure moves through.

Following this system, look for lots of sun but cold temps Wed through Fri. Highs and lows will be a good deal below average for mid-December.

Our next system rolls in Saturday. Some model runs over the past few days, including the 12z Euro from yesterday, brought a nice snow event to much of NC with that one. However, that scenario is unlikely, and I expect a mainly rain event. If precip arrived early enough Saturday morning, I suppose a brief period of wintry precip would be possible, but at this point, that looks unlikely and no big deal.

I see no sign at all of any prolonged significant warm-up over the next couple of weeks. In fact, we might have another big shot of cold air next week.

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Near record warmth today...freezing rain likely for some Sunday...

>> Friday, December 06, 2013

Please see today's video for all of the details:

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Warm today and tomorrow....then big changes for the weekend....

>> Thursday, December 05, 2013

Highs will be way above average today and tomorrow. In fact, some record highs could be challenged across the region tomorrow afternoon.

However, let's get right into the weekend. I anticipate falling temperatures through the day Saturday with some rain at times.

By Sunday, an arctic high pressure will be located over the Northeast, in a classic position for cold air damming. Now, the high will be transient and will lift well off to the north by Sunday night. However, for a period of time, the setup for a wedge is near perfect.

The result of the CAD will be a very cold, raw day Sunday. I have not changed my thinking much here. A significant ice event looks likely in portions of the Virginias, and my confidence has only increased that the NC foothills (especially northern foothills) will deal with at least a period of freezing rain Sunday.

The NAM and Canadian models are the coldest model solutions and push temps below freezing all of the way down to I-40 for an extended period of time Sunday. The GFS and Euro keep the freezing line up near the VA border. The Canadian model is often quite good around here in CAD situations, and I am easing my forecast in the direction of the colder modeling. You also have to keep in mind that the models often under-estimate the cold air a bit in CAD situations too.

Please see the video for much more. One thinking working against the coldest of solutions is that the coldest air will still be west of the mountains as opposed to over the Northeast. Again, please watch the video for more....

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Warm finish to the work week, then big changes...

>> Wednesday, December 04, 2013

A warm front has continued to bring some showers to our region through the night, and warmer air behind that front will continue to work into the region. The warmer setup will be most noticeable tomorrow and Friday when lots of  70s work in for highs just ahead of our next cold front.

The incoming system will be a very messy one from the Rockies into the Plains and Mississippi Valley. In fact, this continues to look like a very significant ice storm for parts of Texas, Arkansas, and western Tennessee especially.

Around the Carolinas, we will have falling temps as we get deeper into Saturday with showers at times through the day. Then, as a strong area of high pressure moves from the northern Plains into the Northeast, a cold air damming episode will occur Sunday.

I have no real changes to my thinking I outlined previously. For parts of the Virginias, this could be a pretty significant bout of ice (freezing rain), and depending on the strength of the wedge, I fully expect the potential to be there for a period of some freezing rain in some NC foothills locations at least.

However, there is nothing to anchor that high in the Northeast, so most in NC should wind up with a cold, raw, rainy day Sunday with temps in the 30s.

As I mention in the video, we will not have a ton of confidence until we continue to see this incoming airmass get sampled better as it pulls deeper into North America. And, the modeling often under-estimates the cold air associated with a wedge around here.

As of this typing, the coldest model is the Canadian. Often times it does a nice job around this region with CAD scenarios, so we will see.

Here's today's video:

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Warmer temps.... cold air damming episode Sunday...

>> Tuesday, December 03, 2013

See today's video for tons of details about what's ahead, including warmer temperatures working in this week, much colder air arriving Saturday, and a cold air damming episode Sunday.

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Brief burst of snow possible today... cold and dry for Thanksgiving...

>> Wednesday, November 27, 2013

As a piece of upper level energy ripples through today, many foothill and piedmont spots could have a brief burst of snow. It might even be enough to whiten some rooftops or grassy areas, but it will not be a big deal.

Cold and dry weather then settles in.

See today's video for much more on that, as well as a look at the weather if you are traveling today.

Have a wonderful Thanksgiving!

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Minor winter weather event tomorrow morning.... lots of rain tomorrow....

>> Monday, November 25, 2013



Please see today's video for lots of details about our incoming storm system. 

Arctic air remains entrenched across the region today. Highs will struggle to make it into the lower 40s this afternoon.

Our next system is in the Lower Mississippi Valley and the Gulf Coast region, and it will begin to spread precip in tonight. Our airmass is very dry, and as the precipitation arrives, evaporation will take place. So, I expect many folks will see a little sleet tonight as the precip first arrives. Then, as temperatures cool to near or just below freezing, a period of freezing rain looks possible in parts of the region.

Any freezing rain will quickly transition to a soaking, chilly rain tomorrow morning, and the rain will continue into tomorrow night. There is no high pressure in the Northeast to provide a feed of fresh, cold air, so the freezing rain will be self-limiting as warmer air aloft is drawn down to the surface.

In terms of ice accumulation, anybody down to around the I-85 corridor is fair game to pick up a brief, minor glazing on elevated surfaces early tomorrow morning. As you head deeper into the foothills and mountains, that is where some places could briefly see 0.10" or so of ice accumulation with up to 0.20" possible in the coldest, most protected locations.

Once the rain settles in, it will be significant. Look for widespread 1-2"+ amounts.

Thanksgiving and Friday look cold and dry. 

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Milder today, but huge plunge of arctic air on the way...

>> Friday, November 22, 2013

Again today, I cover lots of ground in the video. Take a look:

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Chilly today, milder tomorrow, arctic blast by Sunday, big system next week....

>> Thursday, November 21, 2013

Lots to discuss in today's video. Give it a look:

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Chilly now.... big cold shot again by Sunday...

>> Wednesday, November 20, 2013

Chilly now, big arctic blast by Sunday, and a mid-week system next week. All covered in today's video:

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Slowly warming up...

>> Thursday, November 14, 2013

We are slowly crawling out of the deep freeze across the region today into the weekend. Check out all of the details in today's video:

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Arctic air in place...

>> Wednesday, November 13, 2013

We did indeed see a little period of some snow late yesterday and yesterday evening in many spots in the Carolinas. I appreciate all of your reports and pictures.

Arctic air is now the main weather story, and today will be cold with most highs in the 40s outside of the mountains. Another frigid night is on tap tonight before we begin a slow warming trend into the weekend.

Here are all of the details in today's video:

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Arctic air plunges in today...

>> Tuesday, November 12, 2013

Here are all of the details in today's video... give it a look:

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Arctic cold front arrives tomorrow....

>> Monday, November 11, 2013

See today's video for all of the details. A few rain drops or snow flakes could accompany the upper level energy just behind the front later tomorrow, but as mentioned earlier, the cold air is the big story here.

Here's the video:

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Cold air has arrived...

>> Friday, November 08, 2013

We are in the midst of our next blast of colder air. I am watching the goings-on for the middle of next week as well. A sharp trough will dive in and deliver the coldest air we have seen thus far this season by Wednesday and Thursday.

Some models (most notably the European) have wanted to dive enough energy around the base of the incoming trough to pop a big closed upper air low (and an associated surface low offshore) that gives some snow to parts of NC and especially the mid-Atlantic. The GFS and Canadian are much more progressive, only really indicating a cold frontal passage.

As I indicated yesterday, the likelihood of the European scenario working out are slim at best. It would take the perfect orientation of a ridge over the Rockies working with enough energy rounding the base of the incoming trough to form that storm system.

So, with this morning's forecast package, I will continue to indicate very little in the way of precipitation next week but plenty of cold air by mid-week.

See the video for more details:

Read more...

Colder air settles back in tonight...

>> Thursday, November 07, 2013

A cold front is sliding through the region today and will continue to bring brief shower chances. Colder and drier air takes over later tonight and especially tonight.

Lots of interesting model solutions are coming out for the middle of next week. I cover all of that in today's video. Give it a look....

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Much warmer today, but a cold front arrives tomorrow...

>> Wednesday, November 06, 2013

Highs today will warm into the upper 60s and lower 70s across the piedmont ahead of an incoming cold front under a partly cloudy sky. Not bad at all. Tonight's lows should only be in the 50s.

That cold front will slide through tomorrow, but as we have been discussing all week, the rain in our area with this frontal passage will be rather limited. Some showers will zip through, but rain amounts will likely only be a few hundredths of an inch at best.

Behind the front, chilly air will again take over with highs Friday and Saturday in the 50s despite full sunshine. Lows by Saturday morning will be below freezing for most of the piedmont.

Here's today's video with a lot more information:




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Cold start to the week...

>> Monday, November 04, 2013

It will be a chilly Monday across the region with well below average temps. Here's today's video:

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Mild weather..... cold front headed in tomorrow night...

>> Wednesday, October 30, 2013

We will continue to wrap up the month of October with some pretty mild afternoon temps today and tomorrow. Most highs will top 70, so it will be above average for this time of year.

I am more confident now that we will be able to hold the rain off tomorrow night until after the trick-or-treating time period is over in the piedmont. Rain will then arrive later tomorrow night and extend into Friday.

There will be a decent severe weather threat with this incoming system tomorrow in the Mississippi Valley, and then following that system, we will have a shot of chilly air for Sunday and Monday.

See today's video for all of the details:

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Mild temps to wrap up the month....

>> Tuesday, October 29, 2013

All of the details on our upcoming weather in today's video:

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Milder temps this week...

>> Monday, October 28, 2013

We will wrap up the month of October with much milder weather than what we had late last week and through the weekend. We also have a cold front due in here Thursday night and Friday.

See today's video for all of my thoughts on the upcoming weather....

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Cold air blowing in...

>> Wednesday, October 23, 2013

Blustery weather will be with us today as cold air advection commences. This will lead to a several day stretch of well below average temps to finish the week. Here are the details:

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Cold is on the way...

>> Tuesday, October 22, 2013

No big changes with my thinking of the incoming blast of cold air. See the video for all of the details...

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Cold air is the weather story....

>> Monday, October 21, 2013

Here is today's video. Please check it out for all of the details on our cold morning this morning and even colder air on the way later this week...

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Cool this weekend... big shot of cold air next week...

>> Friday, October 18, 2013

See today's video for all of the details on a cool weekend and a big shot of cold air coming next week.

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Weak system arrives tomorrow... eyeing a big cold shot next week....

>> Wednesday, October 16, 2013

A lot of folks like it when I show some of the behind-the-scenes modeling in the videos, and this is the time of year where I will frequently begin to do that again. I cover a lot of ground in today's video, including our incoming storm system, the weekend outlook, the fall color report, and the potential for the first frosts and freezes of the season later next week.

Here's the video:

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Warmer afternoons the next few days...

>> Tuesday, October 15, 2013

Here's today's video. In it, I take a detailed look at our weather the rest of the week, give you the fall foliage report, and glance at the tropics...

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Cool and breezy... coastal low still hanging around...

>> Thursday, October 10, 2013

There have been some pretty amazing rain totals along the Outer Banks over the past couple of days as an area of low pressure (largely what was once Tropical Storm Karen) continues to slowly lift through.

I detail the impacts of that coastal low, plus look at the upcoming forecast, in today's video:

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Coastal low slowly lifting northeast....

>> Wednesday, October 09, 2013

More cool and breezy weather is on tap today across the Piedmont while eastern NC continues to have lots of rain and wind. Some of that rain will pivot westward tonight and tomorrow and make it further west into NC.... see the details on today's video:

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Cool, blustery Autumn weather...

>> Tuesday, October 08, 2013

Here's today's video:

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Karen in the Gulf... landfall this weekend...

>> Friday, October 04, 2013

See today's video for an in-depth look at Karen plus a look at a dynamic storm system causing severe storms and blizzard conditions in the Plains.

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Warm and dry through Saturday.... changes thereafter...

>> Wednesday, October 02, 2013

Here is today's video with lots of good information about out upcoming storm system Sunday/ Monday...

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Great weekend weather!

>> Friday, September 27, 2013

We will have lots of sunshine all weekend long and highs will top out in the 70s for most.... 60s in the mountains. Beautiful stuff!

It gets a little warmer next work week with some lower 80s working back in for highs, but no major storm systems are headed our way anytime soon.

In the tropics, there's a decent tropical wave in the Atlantic, but the chances of it becoming a classified system, at least in the near term, are quite small.

Enjoy the weekend!

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Rain chances today and tonight, then beautiful through the weekend...

>> Wednesday, September 25, 2013

An incoming storm system will bring us the chance of some rain at times today and tonight, but then a fresh surge of drier air will arrive behind that system. That drier airmass will provide us with some fantastic weather as we head into and through the weekend.

Here are all of the details in today's video:

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Great weather today... weak system arrives tomorrow...

>> Tuesday, September 24, 2013

Another fantastic fall day will unfold today with sunshine and highs in the 70s.

A weakening system will pull into the region tomorrow. Overall, I don't expect huge rain amounts for most of us, but there remains some uncertainty amongst the computer models in this regard. See the video for more.

Following that system, more fantastic weather is on the way to wrap up the work week and all weekend long.

Today's video:

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Nice Autumn weather...

>> Monday, September 23, 2013

We have lots of pleasant Autumn weather in the forecast this week book-ending a storm system that will move through Wednesday. Here are the details in today's video:

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Rain chances arrive for the weekend.... mountain/ foothill showers today & tomorrow...

>> Thursday, September 19, 2013

See today's video for all of the details, including some huge model differences for Sunday and Monday's forecast...


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Beautiful Wednesday weather... weather deteriorates this weekend...

>> Wednesday, September 18, 2013

Here is today's video... give it a look for all of the details:

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Warm with some PM storms today.... cooler for the weekend...

>> Thursday, September 12, 2013

Here's today's video with all of the details on our upcoming weather as well as the tropics...

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Warm for a few more days, then big changes...

>> Tuesday, September 10, 2013

Take a look at today's video:

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Warmer today... cooler tomorrow... Gabrielle in the tropics...

>> Thursday, September 05, 2013

See today's video for all of the details:

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A few showers or storms today... cooler and drier airmass tomorrow....

>> Tuesday, September 03, 2013

A cold front is knocking on our door this morning, and that front will slide through the region today. We will see a few showers and storms develop as the front pushes through, and then cooler and drier air will filter in here tonight.

That will then set up some very quiet and nice weather for us through the rest of the work week and right on into the weekend as well.

See all of the details, plus a spin around the tropics, in today's video:

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Isolated showers today...

>> Thursday, August 29, 2013

A cold front is pressing south through the region, and in the northeast flow behind that front, some isolated showers look possible today with highs in the 80s.

Big college football game this evening down in Columbia. The Tar Heels head south to take on the Gamecocks to kick of the 2013 college football season. It will be a bit steamy at kickoff with temps near 90, and there will be some widely scattered showers or storms down that way.

Our Friday looks dry with highs in the mid 80s. Over the upcoming holiday weekend, shower and storm chances will be on the increase, especially for Sunday and Monday, as a sharp cold front approaches from the northwest. Following that front, a cooler, drier airmass looks likely by Wednesday and Thursday.

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Summertime weather...

>> Wednesday, August 28, 2013

The upcoming holiday weekend marks the unofficial ending of summer in the minds of most people, and we have summertime weather highlighting the forecast. No extreme heat in the Carolinas, but highs on many days between today and early next week will hit the upper 80s and lower 90s.

A few storms will be possible today and tomorrow, and then the scattered storm chances look to increase for the holiday weekend.

This weekend also marks the beginning of college football season, something I love. Actually, the season gets underway with several games Thursday night, including one with great local interest as the Gamecocks host the Tar Heels. There will be some scattered storms around tomorrow evening down in South Carolina, but they will be hit and miss. Highs tomorrow in Columbia will be in the mid 90s, and it could still be in the 90s at gametime if a cooling thunderstorm has not rolled through.

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Back at it....

>> Monday, August 26, 2013

After a delightful airmass settled in over the weekend, we will continue to enjoy great weather today with sunshine and low humidity.

Heat and humidity levels will increase starting tomorrow, and we will see the return of some daily shower and storm chances as well, especially Wednesday onward.

Here are a few shots I took last week from the Carolina coast.

Here are some mammatus clouds over some coastal wetlands in South Carolina.



Here is a nice shelf cloud from the Ocracoke-Hatter Island Ferry:



And here is the storm surge display from the North Carolina Aquarium at Fort Fisher:

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Wet weather moving in...

>> Friday, August 16, 2013

For the mountains, foothills, and much of the piedmont, it was a picture-perfect Thursday across the region with highs in the 70s and low humidity. It was a very wet day yesterday across eastern SC and southern NC as well as central and southern GA.

That wet weather is lifting northward, and rain chances arrive in the NC piedmont and foothills today. We will then see periods of rain tonight and through the weekend.

Temps will really be held in check tomorrow as a wedge sets up. In fact, many places will likely remain in the 60s all day. Sunday only looks slightly warmer.

The wedge pattern breaks Monday and we return to more typical August weather next work week.

See more in today's video, including a run-down of the tropics....

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Beautiful for many areas today... rainy, cool period ahead...

>> Thursday, August 15, 2013

We will enjoy picture-perfect weather today around most of the piedmont, foothills, and mounrains with highs failing to make 80 in many areas and low levels of humidity. However, it's a rainy morning in eastern SC and southeastern NC,  and changes are just around the corner. As soon as tonight, some rain could arrive for much of the piedmont.

There are some difference amongst our various computer models (for example, almost no rain over the next 72 hours on the RPM, but multiple inches on the GFS), but I think the basic forecast idea tomorrow through the weekend is cool, occasionally rainy conditions. Highs tomorrow and Saturday will likely struggle to reach 70 in many places with periods of rain.

Next work week, more typical August weather returns with highs toward the upper 80s and some afternoon storm chances.

TD5:

A tropical depression has formed in the eastern Atlantic off of the African coast. This will likely become a tropical storm soon, and it will head generally westward over the Atlantic in coming days.

Read more...

Ahhhh.....

>> Wednesday, August 14, 2013

A much cooler and drier airmass is filtering into the mountains, foothills, and much of the piedmont today, and the result for many areas will be a couple of extremely nice August days. Highs in many areas of NC will only be around 80 or so today and tomorrow, and humidity levels will be low.

We still appear to be gearing up for a wet and cool weekend. Tropical moisture will get lifted up and over our layer of cool air we have in place, and the result will likely be a rainy and cool weekend. Some spots might not make it out of the 60s somewhere in the Friday-Sunday period if the rain really settles in.

See the video for much more:

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Showers and storms today... BIG weather change tomorrow...

>> Tuesday, August 13, 2013

A cold front is approaching the region, and that front will kick off numerous showers and storms around the region today. Some of the storms could be severe with damaging winds being the main threat.

A BIG weather change arrives for tomorrow, and it will be a much different weather setup from tomorrow through the weekend.

See today's video for all of the details.

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Humid conditions continue through tomorrow...

>> Monday, August 12, 2013

Humidity levels will remain high today and tomorrow across the region in advance of our next front. We will have some scattered storms this afternoon and evening, and then tomorrow looks fairly active with a good coverage of showers and storms as that front moves through.

Following that front, much drier air will arrive for Wednesday along with cooler temps too. Then, Thursday through the weekend, a pronounced summer wedge scenario will unfold for us with good rain chances and cool daytime highs.

See the video for much more on all of this:

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Cold front drops in this weekend...

>> Friday, August 09, 2013

As a cold front settles into the region this weekend, it will provide fairly unsettled weather to the Carolinas. Sunday will probably be the wetter of the two weekend days as the front slowly sags southward.

In the longer range, it looks like a pretty good trough will swing into the eastern US mid-week next week and shove a nice push of cooler, drier air into our region. The result could be some well below average highs by Thursday and Friday.

Here's today's video:

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Shower and storm chances increasing...

>> Thursday, August 08, 2013

A soupy, tropical airmass is draped across the region, and as a cold front continues to slowly approach from the northwest, shower and storm chances will be on the increase across the piedmont.

So, the basic forecast idea is for scattered showers and storms over the next several days. Parts of Georgia and South Carolina have dealt with flooding problems over the past couple of days, and while I don't expect widespread flooding issues across North Carolina, certainly some flooding problems are probable.

Here's today's video:

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Chance of some showers and storms.... better storm chances this weekend...

>> Wednesday, August 07, 2013

Some parts of the region, mainly in the Upstate and north Georgia, had some big rain totals yesterday. Other spots, such as the Charlotte and Triad regions, only had highs in the 70s after morning rain exited yesterday.

Take a look at today's video for a look at what's ahead as we continue through the week...

Read more...

Chance of some showers and storms...

>> Tuesday, August 06, 2013

Here is today's edition of the video:

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Pleasant Monday weather... better storm chances ahead...

>> Monday, August 05, 2013

Highs today will only be in the 80s once again across the region. Charlotte and Greensboro have failed to hit 90 yet this month, and that follows a July with only a handful of 90-degree days. Overall, I think temperatures will run in the general ballpark of average over the next week or so.

We will have a couple of storm systems swing our way. First of all, isolated showers are possible today in the mountains, foothills, and northern piedmont, and then tomorrow will feature a better chance of some afternoon showers and storms.

Wednesday looks unsettled with good shower and storm chances, and then another cold front will bring good shower and storm chances for Friday and Saturday.

Here's a lot more info in today's video:

Read more...

Scattered storms today... dry for most tomorrow...

>> Thursday, August 01, 2013

A cold front will slide through the region late today, and that front will promote the development of scattered showers and storms today and into this evening for some areas.

Drier air will follow that front into the mountains and piedmont by tomorrow, and the result will be dry Friday weather in those areas. The chances of some showers and storms will continue near the coast tomorrow.

The rain chances Saturday still look pretty low, but afternoon and evening storm chances return for Sunday and much of next work week.

Here is today's video with all of the details:

Read more...

Showers and a chance of storms...

>> Wednesday, July 31, 2013

Our next storm system continues to crawl into our area today. The result will be showers at times as well as a chance of storms today, tonight, and tomorrow.

Dry weather return to much of the region Friday, and that dry weather should hold for many of us Saturday.

Afternoon storm chances return Sunday, and that same basic pattern of mainly afternoon and evening storm chances will then hold most day next work week.

Here are all of the details, including some forecast rain amounts, in today's video:

Read more...

Dry today.... showers and storms return tomorrow....

>> Tuesday, July 30, 2013

Here's today's video.... see it for all of the details.

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Pretty quiet today... more unsettled this weekend...

>> Friday, July 26, 2013

Like yesterday, some afternoon storms could fire in the foothills. But most of the piedmont will be dry today with highs in the 80s and tolerable levels of humidity.

An upper level disturbance will drive an area of low pressure and a cold front our way this weekend and will bring back scattered shower and storm chances at times.

Tropics...

Dorian is struggling this morning, battling hostile upper level winds and dry air. See the video for more... I spend a good amount of time on Dorian.

Read more...

A little cooler today....

>> Thursday, July 25, 2013

A cold front has dropped to our south, and highs today will be in the low and mid 80s for much of the foothills and piedmont. There will be a chance for a few showers and storms, but it now appears the rain today will not be very widespread.

Tonight will be pleasant with lows well down into the 60s, and then tomorrow looks fantastic with 80s for highs under a partly cloudy sky.

A few storms will work back into the region later Saturday, and Sunday looks unsettled right now with good shower and storm chances.

Dorian...

Tropical Storm Dorian is a little stronger this morning. It is a compact system, and that is helping it battle some fairly dry air out ahead of it over the Atlantic.

No real changes to my thinking here. Dorian should continue on a track a little north of due west for the next 5-7 days, probably tracking a little north of the northeast Caribbean islands.

I think odds are this winds up fairly close to the Turks and Caicos Islands and maybe the Bahamas by the middle of next week, and from there, we could see this make a run at the US.

Again though... this is a long, long way from the US... plenty of time to watch and for changes.

Read more...

Shower and storm chances return... TD 4 has formed....

>> Wednesday, July 24, 2013

A cold front is dropping into the region today, and that front will kick off scattered showers and storms later today and into tonight. Then, an area of low pressure will form along the front and keep the chance of some showers and storms going tomorrow.

Winds will switch around out of the northeast tomorrow, and that will lead to some cooler temps.

Friday looks great with mainly dry conditions and highs in the 80s, and then the chances of showers and storms will ramp back up with time over the weekend.

Tropics...

Tropical Depression 4 has formed in the far eastern Atlantic, southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. There is a large subtropical ridge sprawled across the Atlantic, and that feature will likely keep the system on a track slightly north of due west through the weekend.

Most modeling would seem to indicate that this system will not eventually re-curve and might wind up threatening land down the road, but that's pretty deep into the crystal ball.

The system will have to battle a lot of dry air out over the Atlantic, so it will have an uphill battle regarding overly significant strengthening in the short-term.

Read more...

Slightly less muggy today in some areas...

>> Tuesday, July 23, 2013

For the I-85 corridor and points north and west, a slightly drier airmass will temporarily arrive today. This will probably be enough to notice a decrease in the humidity levels this afternoon, and it will also reduce our shower and storm chances. The better chances for a PM shower or storm today will be the further east you go in the region.

A cold front approaches tomorrow and will increase the storm chances again. Then, it appears a wave of low pressure will develop along that front and provide some clouds, showers, and storms for Thursday.

That system looks to get out of the way in time for a pretty good looking forecast Friday and Saturday.

See the video for more on all of this.... plus a look at a tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic.

Read more...

Storms fewer in number today...

>> Thursday, July 18, 2013

Some big-time storms fired yesterday afternoon in the foothills early in the afternoon and then steadily worked their way south and southwestward through much of the Charlotte area and the rest of SW NC and then continued down through much of SC into GA.

These were some incredibly electric thunderstorms, and they also produced gusty winds and some hail.

Here's the storm report map:



The triggering mechanism for yesterday's storms was a surface trough draped across the region. Today, there is not a well-defined mechanism to fire storms, so I expect only an isolated coverage of afternoon and early evening storms. Highs will top 90 for most.

Tomorrow's forecast looks much the same.

Our next front will begin to drop into the region Sunday. Sunday and Monday look pretty active with shower and storm chances, and then it will take a couple of days next week for the rain chances to slowly decrease as that front washes out.

Read more...

Hot, humid, scattered storms....

>> Wednesday, July 17, 2013

Here's today's video:

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Hot and humid..... PM storm chances set to return...

>> Tuesday, July 16, 2013

Highs will top 90 today across much of the region... something that has been a fairly rare occurrence this summer so far. A few isolated late-day storms are possible today as a trough approached from the northeast, but most places will again be dry today.

Tomorrow and Thursday look like typical summer days with hot, humid conditions and scattered PM storms.

A front will approach late in the weekend and enhance the storm chances again at that point in time.

Please see today's video for all of the details:

Read more...

Drier and hotter...

>> Monday, July 15, 2013


We will get a chance to dry things out a bit over the next couple of days. A big upper level ridge is located over the Great Lakes region, and it is close enough to us to really suppress the shower and storm chances.

Having said that, there is will the chance of an isolated shower or storm today and tomorrow, but I expect most places to be dry.

Better afternoon storm chances return Wednesday and Thursday, and the chance for some afternoon storms will continue into the weekend.

Much of NC has had a drought of 90-degree days this season, but we will see 90+ for highs most days this week. So, this will easily be the hottest week of the summer thus far.


Read more...

Cold front settling in...

>> Thursday, July 11, 2013

Today's video:

A cold front is arriving into the region today and will give us good chances of showers and storms at times. Really at any point today or tonight, we are fair game to see some areas of rain and storms.

Then, as the front stalls out in the eastern Carolinas tomorrow, the chances of showers and storms will continue with the greatest coverage being the farther east you go.

Some heavy rain amounts are certainly possible, and that means additional flooding issues are likely in some areas, depending on where the heaviest rains set up.

Tropics...

Chantal degenerated into an open wave yesterday as it lost its battle with shear and land interaction. I doubt the system will get re-classified as a named system, but some rain and blustery conditions will remain possible in the Bahamas today and maybe the Southeast coast this weekend.

Read more...

Increasing shower and storm chances around the region...

>> Wednesday, July 10, 2013

The overall coverage of showers and storms will be increasing around the region over the next couple of days as a cold front slowly approaches.

Also, Chantal is struggling south of Hispaniola this morning.

See the video for all of the details:

Read more...

>> Tuesday, July 09, 2013

Today looks much like yesterday where the greatest concentration of showers/ storms will be from eastern NC down into southern NC and much of SC. However, anybody is still fair game to pick up a few showers and storms today with highs toward the upper 80s.

As a cold front begins to near tomorrow, the coverage of showers and storms will ramp up. In fact, it looks pretty unsettled with good shower and storm chances tomorrow through at least Friday.

Chantal...
Tropical Storm Chantal is entering the Lesser Antilles this morning as of this typing. The overall thoughts here are the same. Chantal will likely move pretty close to Hispaniola and then bend more north toward the Bahamas by Friday. From there, the system could threaten the Southeast coast by Sunday or Monday.

Please see today's video for much, much more....

Read more...

Warm, humid, scattered storms....

>> Monday, July 08, 2013

After some overnight showers and storms in some areas, we will have the chance of some additional showers and storms in scattered fashion over the next few days. Days will be warm and muggy.

An upper level tough will approach the region again Thursday. This looks to once again create a wet, unsettled pattern across the region.

Tropics...

Chantal has formed. See the video for much more, and check my Tropical Weather page, linked on the left, for more info.

Read more...

Warm, muggy, scattered storms....

>> Friday, July 05, 2013

The upcoming forecast looks very much like July with warm, muggy conditions and daily chance of especially afternoon and evening showers and storms.

Many spots have seen big-time rain amounts over the past week or so, most recently in the mountains and foothills. So, there will remain a flooding threat with any areas of heavy rain.

A few storms could also produce gusty winds, and since the ground is so wet, it will be fairly easy for some trees to topple.

Here's today's video:

Read more...

More of the same today...

>> Wednesday, July 03, 2013

We will continue to see showers and storms at times today, and a Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for much of the region.

Here's today's video:

Read more...

Showers and storms continue...

>> Tuesday, July 02, 2013

Please see today's video for lots of weather details:


We remain sandwiched between a trough over the Mississippi Valley and a ridge out over the Atlantic. This places us in a favorable region for showers and storms, and that will remain the case for a couple more days.

The ground is saturated across the region, so any additional areas of moderate to heavy rain could fairly easily trigger flash flooding issues. Please pay attention to all flood products as they are issued, and remember... never drive into any areas where water is covering the road.

For the Fourth, I still expect scattered showers and storms with highs in the low and mid 80s.

As the ridging over the Atlantic builds overhead this weekend, it will greatly reduce our rain chances and increase our temps.

Read more...

Wet pattern continues....

>> Monday, July 01, 2013

**I've been having some issues with the formatting of my videos over the past week. That's the reason videos have been sporadic. Hopefully I can get these issues resolved soon.**

An extremely wet and unsettled pattern remain in place. A huge ridge with tremendous heat is located out west with an upper level low of the Ohio Valley and mid Mississippi Valley. Then, there is another ridge out over the Atlantic.

This is a setup that just cranks the Gulf and Atlantic moisture into our region, and any small disturbance that ripples through can generate areas of heavy rain and storms.

Flash flooding issues will remain a concern over the next several days.

The ridging over the Atlantic finally noses westward into our region by the weekend, greatly reducing the rain chances and increasing the heat.



Read more...

Bus Race....

>> Wednesday, June 26, 2013

I had a great time last evening out at Charlotte Motor Speedway at the annual school bus race...part of the Media Mayhem series.

It was a crazy race. I started from the second position:

One person carried too much speed into turns 1/2 early in the race and flipped his bus over. Then another bus appeared to have their radiator explode with fluids spilling all over the track.

After the cleanup, we re-started the race. That's me nearest to the camera.


I was running pretty well....generally 2nd or 3rd the whole time.





Then, another caution.... this time, to invert the first 4 buses for the final run to the finish.

For that restart, I lined up 3rd and quickly settled into second by the end of turn 1/2. With 3 laps to go, I was right there where I wanted to be. I swing down low into turn 3/4 to try and make a run for the lead, and then it happened.

Somebody slammed my rear end and I knew immediately it was over. In what seemed like only a second, the bus slams over on its side and quickly stops as it digs into the grass outside turn 3/4. The person that hit me then immediately saw his bus catch on fire from the impact.


A disappointing finish to what I felt was going to be a good chance to win.

I want to thank all of the fine folks out at Charlotte Motor Speedway for again allowing me the chance to participate in this fun event. I hope we put on a good show for the folks in the stands.

Read more...

Warm, muggy, scattered storms....

>> Tuesday, June 25, 2013

Summertime forecast continues for the rest of the week. Warm, muggy conditions will remain in place with most highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. We will also continue to have the chance of some showers and storms on a daily basis with the greatest coverage of showers and storms occurring during the afternoon and evening hours.

The storms will continue to be pulse in nature as well, meaning they could briefly produce gusty winds and small hail before collapsing on themselves due to weak upper level winds.

The overall coverage of showers and storms could increase for the weekend as our next trough stalls out just to our west.


Read more...

Nice weather... coastal low forming....

>> Thursday, June 20, 2013

The piedmont will enjoy some very nice weather today with highs in the low and mid 80s and fairly low levels of humidity for this time of year.

An area of low pressure is spinning up along the coast, and that low will spread rain into the eastern Carolina over the next couple of days. The heaviest rains look to occur in eastern NC.

At this point, it appears most, if not all, of that rain will stay east of I-95. But we will keep watching it.

A few afternoon storms become possible over the weekend, and then the chances of afternoon storms ramp up further next work week as temps and humidity levels increase.

Here's today's video:

Read more...

Drier pattern arriving...

>> Wednesday, June 19, 2013

After a couple of unsettled weather days to start this work week, we are now entering a much drier and quieter weather setup. One cold front was located early this morning from coastal NC down into SC. The thunderstorm threat will likely be confined to areas near and south of that front today.

A second cold front will move into NC this afternoon and could generate some isolated showers. However, this will likely be nothing impressive.

The weather tomorrow and Friday looks very nice for much of the region. Lower humidity levels will take hold for much of the piedmont and foothills, and highs will be in the 80s.

A coastal low will likely develop tomorrow, and that could provide a rather rainy scenario for coastal portions of the Carolinas by later tomorrow and Friday.

We will heard toward some typical Summertime weather by next work week with some lower 90s for highs and afternoon storm chances.

Here's today's video:

Read more...

Showers and storms likely today... drier times ahead...

>> Tuesday, June 18, 2013

Radar clearly shows a disturbance over middle Tennessee early this morning, and it's moving eastward. All modeling aside, that alone leads me to believe we will have good chances of some showers and storms here in the Carolinas today.

Drier air will begin to filter into NC from the north tomorrow, and that will mean a reduction in the chance of showers and storms.

At this point, Thursday through the weekend are looking mainly dry and warm.

Tropics...

TD2 is inland over Central America, and it will stay well south, winding up in Mexico. Flooding and mudslides in Mexico will be the problem with this system.

See the video for much more on all of this....

Read more...

Cooler, drier airmass is here...

>> Friday, June 14, 2013

What a rough afternoon and evening yesterday. Here's the storm report map from the SPC. Tons of wind damage reports featured, many of which were in our region.



However, a much cooler and drier airmass has arrived, and that will provide for excellent weather today into the Father's Day weekend.

There's a limited chance of a shower or two today as one final impulse ripples through, but most will be dry.

See the video for much, much more....

Read more...

This afternoon...

>> Thursday, June 13, 2013

At 1pm, temps in the piedmont are near 90 and dewpoints are near 70. This is a very warm and unstable airmass.

An upper level disturbance was located back near Kentucky. You can note the storms firing on the leading edge of the disturbance on the water vapor image below.



The SPC has upped a chunk of the region into the 'Moderate risk' area for severe storms this afternoon/evening. Damaging winds remain the main threat. Here are the wind probabilites from the latest SPC outlook.


Finally, here is the RPM model, valid at 6pm.



We will likely have an intense line, or broken line, of storms move first through the mountains and then through the foothills and piedmont as the afternoon unfolds.

The wind damage potential is elevated due to a number of meteorological factor in place. Please take Severe Thunderstorm Warnings seriously today. 

Read more...

Hot with strong storms this afternoon...

After creating a sizable severe weather outbreak in the Midwest yesterday, our next system arrives into our region today. It will be a hot day just in advance of the system with highs pushing into the 90s in many areas. Then, later this afternoon, some big storms should fire and move quickly through the region.

The wind damage potential is elevated with any storm today, and although the greatest tornado threat will lie from Virginia northward, I can't rule out isolated tornadoes in the Carolinas too.

Make sure you have a good way of hearing any watches and warnings this afternoon and evening.

Following this system, beautiful weather will settle in for tomorrow and the Father's Day weekend.

Here's today's video with much more information:

Read more...

Hot today... storms tomorrow...

>> Wednesday, June 12, 2013

Heat will build into the region today with many highs topping 90 this afternoon. The overall chance of a storm in any one spots is limited.

However....fly in the ointment. Some of the higher-resolution models are showing a big cluster of storms firing this morning in the Virginias that then drop into NC later today. As of this typing, there are no signs of that actually occurring, but it bears watching.

A big severe weather outbreak is likely in parts of the Midwest today. Then, that system drop into the Eastern Seaboard tomorrow.

Around here, some storms are likely tomorrow afternoon, and the wind damage potential looks pretty elevated with any storms. We will watch it.

The SPC has some very high severe probabilities in some areas today and tomorrow. See the video for more.

Following that system, a delightful June airmass will settle in for Friday and Saturday.

Read more...

Quieter for a couple of days...

>> Tuesday, June 11, 2013

A cold front is sliding east and out of the region today, and some drier air is following that front through the region. This will essentially eliminate rain chances for much of the foothills and piedmont as this slightly drier air takes hold.

Heat will build a bit with widespread 90-plus temps tomorrow and Thursday.

A potent disturbance will arrive into our region by Thursday afternoon. This looks like a setup that could produce some wind damage across the mid-Atlantic and into the Carolinas, so we will watch it.

Following that system, the weather looks extremely nice for Friday and most of the weekend.

Here's today's video for more....

Read more...

Unsettled today...

>> Monday, June 10, 2013

A potent upper level disturbance is moving into the region today, and that disturbance will generate areas of showers and storms at times today and into tonight.

The overall atmosphere setup is supportive of at least some chance of damaging winds and isolated tornadoes, so we will need to keep a close watch on the storms.





The ground is also quite wet, so any areas of locally heavy rain could generate some flash flooding problems.

We will dry things out for tomorrow and Wednesday, and the heat will build a bit. In fact, many of us could top 90 during the mid-week period.

Another potent system will clip through here later Thursday, and at that point, the shower and storm chances look high again.

At the moment, the upcoming weekend is looking very nice with 80s and sunshine.

Read more...

Andrea makes landfall later today... lots of rain for the Carolinas...

>> Thursday, June 06, 2013

See today's video for details:

Read more...

Rain and storm chances set to ramp up...

>> Wednesday, June 05, 2013

We have an area of low pressure in the Gulf, a warm front in SC, and an approaching upper level trough on the board today that will all play a part in our weather in coming days.

Scattered showers and storms will be possible today, but then the chance of showers and storms really increases for tomorrow as that warm front lifts northward. Then for Thursday night and Friday, the upper level trough will pick up that Gulf low and lift it northeastward. Depending on how the specifics of these features unfold, parts of the region could wind up with a healthy shield of rain during this time period.

See the video for more.... some modeling is printing out some very impressive rain amounts.

Here's the video:

Read more...

Drier air tries to work in from the north....

>> Tuesday, June 04, 2013

Drier air is seeping into parts of the region from the north today, and the result will be lower humidity and a dry forecast for some....especially along and north of I-40. South of I-40, the changes will be more subtle, and I think we need to maintain at least a small chance of some showers and storms.

The big weather player later this week will be the low pressure (formerly Barbara in the eastern Pacific) in the Gulf of Mexico. This will likely not become a classified tropical system, but it will lift up to near the Carolina coast by Friday.

For the mountains, foothills, and piedmont, it will mean rain and storm chances ramping up from later Thursday through Friday. For the coast, it could mean some quite breezy conditions by Thursday and Friday along with some rain and storms.

Read more...

Cold front working our way....

>> Friday, May 31, 2013

It has been an extremely rough weather week in many locations in the Plains and Midwest. Today will again be active with a 'moderate' risk of severe weather focused in parts of Oklahoma and a large 'slight' risk surrounding that.

Around the Carolinas, another warm and quiet day. Some of the high-res modeling is pushing the idea of a few isolated showers this afternoon, but I still expect most spots to be dry. Same storm for Saturday.

The cold front will finally approach the region Sunday, some some showers and storms will work into the western Carolinas by Sunday afternoon and evening. And it still looks like Monday will feature very good shower and storm chances as the front moves through.

I am keeping an eye on the potential for a little Gulf of Mexico tropical mischief for later next week too. See the video for much more...

Read more...

Wash, rinse, repeat...

>> Thursday, May 30, 2013

Same ole....same ole. We will continue to see highs well into the 80s with very little in the way of rain chances through Saturday.

At the same time, this has been an extremely active weather week in the Plains and Midwest, and there will be more severe weather in some of those areas today.

A cold front will begin to approach Sunday, so I expect the mountains, foothills, and probably the western piedmont to pick up the chance of a few showers and storms by later Sunday afternoon.

Monday still looks like the day with the best chance of showers and storms as the front moves through.

Here's today's video:

Read more...

More of the same...

>> Wednesday, May 29, 2013

If you liked the weather yesterday, you will like the forecast today through Saturday. We will continue to see lots of sun with highs well into the 80s. The rain chance in any one spot through Saturday remains very low as well.

The big upper ridge overhead begins to break down Sunday, allowing a cold front to approach. So, some mountain, foothill, and possibly western piedmont PM showers/ storms are possible by Sunday afternoon.

The front will slowly slide through Monday, and that is the day with the best shower and storm chances.

A pretty big outbreak of severe weather looks likely in the Plains today.... see the video for more on all of this.

Here's today's video...

Read more...

Summer-like pattern this week....

>> Tuesday, May 28, 2013

An upper level ridge will continue to get established over the Southeast as we roll through this week, and that ridge will provide us with a Summer-like setup.

The heat will not be a big problem. In fact, many spots around the region will remain shy of 90 for highs. However, highs each day through the weekend will push well into the 80s with lows in the 60s.

A trough will move into the region next Monday and bring the chance of showers and storms. Between now and then, rain chances will be limited to just a handful of isolated afternoon showers or storms with most spots staying dry each day.

Here's today's video:

Read more...

Shower and storm chances continue.... changes coming....

>> Wednesday, May 22, 2013

A cold front will move through the region by tomorrow night. Out ahead of it, we remain in a warm and muggy airmass. That means the chances of showers and storms continues at times with highs in the 80s.

Much cooler and drier air will flow into the region behind the front. Friday's highs will only be in the 70s. In fact, many of us will have 70s for highs through the holiday weekend.

Low temps will likely drop into the 40s for many by Saturday morning, and we could do it again Sunday morning.

Looking ahead, I continue to see signs of a big upper level ridge trying to take over by later next week. So, it could be a fairly hot finish to May and beginning to June.

Here's today's video:

Read more...

More unsettled weather through Thursday...

>> Tuesday, May 21, 2013

My heart just aches this morning for the tragic scenario in Moore, Oklahoma. Words really can't describe the horrific nature of that tornado and its associated damage. My prayers will remain with everyone affected.

Around here, we will continue to see shower and storm chances until a cold front sweeps through by late Thursday  Cooler, drier air will follow that front for the holiday weekend. See the video for more...

Read more...

More showers and storms on the way...

>> Monday, May 20, 2013

Here's today's video:

Our unsettled weather will continue as we remain in a soupy airmass, so I expect more scattered showers and storms at times the next few days.

At the moment, the upcoming Memorial Day weekend looks absolutely fantastic with lower humidity and lots of sun. See the video for more on all of this.

Yesterday was an extremely bad severe weather day back in the Plains. There were some very significant tornadoes in some spots as well.

Below are 3 images I snapped of a powerful tornado southeast of Oklahoma City. This will be the reflectivity, velocity, and correlation coefficient from the NEXRAD radar. There was a debris ball evident on the reflectivity, and a tornado debris signature on the CC.




Read more...

Unsettled weekend on tap...

>> Friday, May 17, 2013

A couple of weather features will combine to give us some unsettled weather over the next few days. Number 1 is a cold front that is nearing. That front will wind up stalling out across the region as the weekend unfolds.

Number 2 is an upper level disturbance that will be located in a favorable position through the weekend to enhance shower and storm chances.

Today, look for some scattered PM storms, especially near roughly I-40. The coverage of showers and storms will then increase tomorrow.

So, for the Sprint All-Star race tomorrow evening, I can't guarantee there won't be a weather delay somewhere in there, but the event shouldn't be a washout.

Sunday is looking more and more wet as more model data comes in. I expect a good coverage of rain and storms as Sunday unfolds, and some modeling is really beginning to crank the rain totals.

Drier and warmer weather returns for Tuesday and Wednesday.

I take a detailed look at all of this, plus take a peek at the potential for some cooler air around the Memorial Day weekend, in today's video:

Read more...

Another warm one... unsettled this weekend...

>> Thursday, May 16, 2013

Some nasty storms in Texas yesterday evening. I grabbed a couple of radar image of a violent tornado between Cleburne and Rio VIsta, TX. This one had an excellent debris signature on the dual-pol radar. See the second image




Highs today will again surge up into the mid and upper 80s, and once again, a few spots could clip 90.

A front will sag into the region beginning tomorrow and bring with it the chance of some showers and storms, especially in the afternoon. Tomorrow's rain chances are better the farther north you go.

Over the weekend, the front will stall out across the region. The result will likely be a good coverage of showers and storms during the afternoon and evening. Not a washout, but some showers and storms at times.

Drier and warmer weather will build back in here by mid-week next week.

Here is today's video:

Read more...

Much warmer today...

>> Wednesday, May 15, 2013

After we began our Tuesday with temps near record cold levels, we will have a tremendous warm-up today with lots of highs in the mid and upper 80s. Some spots might even clip 90 this afternoon. Pretty amazing temp swing.

I expect similar temps tomorrow.

For the weekend, a frontal boundary will stall out across the region, and that will lead to a daily scattered shower and storm chance.

Lots of folks have some outdoor plans this weekend, including the big All-Star race at Charlotte Motor Speedway. I do not expect a weekend washout. However, there will be some showers and storms to dodge, especially from mid-afternoon through the evening hours.

See the video for much more:

Read more...

Warm today... cold front moves in tomorrow...

>> Friday, May 10, 2013

Here's today's video.... give it a look:

Highs will surge well into the 80s across the region today ahead of an incoming cold front. I am watching a disturbance back over the Tennessee Valley as well. It appears that disturbance could aid in the development of some afternoon/ evening showers and storms today as well.

Tomorrow will not be a wash-out, but there will be a considerable amount of showers and storms at times as the cold front enters the region.

Cooler air spill in behind the front, so Mother's Day will be cooler, but dry for most.

Highs Monday will only be in the 60s, and I still expect some piedmont spots to make a run down into the 30s for lows Tuesday morning.

The chill won't last long though.... highs return to the 80s by Wednesday.

Read more...

Warmer the next couple of days... cold front approaches Saturday...

>> Thursday, May 09, 2013

Many spots will make a run up to near 80 or so this afternoon, and then I anticipate low and mid 80s tomorrow.

This afternoon, some storms will fire up in the mountains, and then I expect a few of those storms will drift down into the foothills and piedmont. The same general idea will transpire tomorrow.

A cold front will approach Saturday and bring a pretty good chance of some afternoon and evening showers and storms along with it. Following that front, I am still expecting a pretty good shot of cooler temps for early next week.

Many spots will likely have 60s for highs Monday despite full sunshine, and some piedmont spots could see some 30s for lows Tuesday morning.

Here's today's video:

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Scattered showers and storms today.... warmer and dry tomorrow...

>> Wednesday, May 08, 2013

The big upper air low will play a role in our weather for one more day. As a disturbance pivots around the upper level low, we will see a good coverage of scattered showers and storms today. A few storms could produce some gusty winds and small hail.

Warmer, drier weather will unfold for us tomorrow and Friday.

Another cold front will swing in by Saturday night and bring the chance of scattered showers and storms again. Following that front, a pretty good shot of chilly air will arrive for early next week.

See the video for much more on all of this, including a few pictures of the South Fork River flooding near Cramerton....

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Scattered showers and storms next couple of days...

>> Tuesday, May 07, 2013

Take a look at today's video... I look at our big upper air low impacting the region and take a look at what's ahead...

We will remain under the influence of the big upper air low today and tomorrow. A main feature of the upper air low is cold temperatures aloft, and that will lead to the development of scattered showers and storms, especially during the heating of the day.

The freezing levels aloft will be pretty low, so it should be relatively easy for storms to generate hail.

Much warmer weather will be with us Thursday and Friday, and then another cold front arrives by Saturday night.

Look for some shower and storm chances later Saturday, and then we will see another significant shot of chilly May air arrive for early next week.

It is possible some spots could see some 30s for lows by around Tuesday morning.

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Upper air low continues to impact the region...

>> Monday, May 06, 2013

Here's today's video.... give it a look:

A fire hose of moisture has remained aimed at the western Carolinas over the past couple of days. This has led to lots and lots of flooding problems in the mountains and foothills. Numerous mudslides and incidents of flooding have occurred, and a number of swift water rescues have been necessary.

A band of heavier rain will continue to pivot northeastward through the piedmont this morning, and then as we get into this afternoon, scattered showers and storms will likely fire. Some small hail is possible with any storms that do fire.

The upper air low will move right overhead tomorrow, and that will again aid in the development of scattered showers and storms due to the colder temps aloft.

The system will finally weaken and pull away Wednesday, and Thursday and Friday look mainly dry and much, much warmer.

Another cold front will slide through this weekend followed by a decent shot of chillier air by later Sunday and Monday.

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A bit milder today.... lots of rain on the way...

>> Friday, May 03, 2013

Check out this radar show from the 5am hour today.... this is the first May snow in recorded history in the state of Arkansas.



We should see a little bit less in the way of cloudcover today compared to the past couple of days, and therefore, highs will be a touch milder. Still below average for early May though.

That dynamic system to our west is heading our way, and this looks to once again be a big-time rain-producer for the Southeast. Many spots in the Carolinas can expect 1-3" of rain it appears, and some locations in the western Carolinas might even see more.

See the video for much, much more on all of this...

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Cool again today... big upper air low headed our way...

>> Thursday, May 02, 2013

No time for a video this morning, but the forecast challenge today will be when/if the clouds erode. I think we will see some clearing this afternoon from east to west, but it will be a gradual process.

Tomorrow looks nice with a good bit of sun and highs in the lower 70s.

Kudos to the GFS... it looks like it won the model battle as to the timing and track of the big developing upper level low this weekend into early next week. It appears the ULL will wind up tracking right over the Carolinas by Tuesday or so.

As for the weekend, some rain could arrive into the western Carolinas by later Saturday, and that area of rain chances will continue to slowly work east Sunday.

I am afraid the Wells Fargo Championship will indeed have some rain to dodge as we get later into the weekend.

Monday, at this point, looks like a soaker, and some scattered areas of rain/ showers will be likely Tuesday and Wednesday as the bug ULL moves overhead.

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May arrives with clouds and cool temps...

>> Wednesday, May 01, 2013

The northeasterly maritime flow continues across the region. Many of us will have 60s for highs today under a good amount of cloud cover. Some passing showers will also be possible through tomorrow morning.

Friday and Saturday look pretty nice across NC, but question marks arise soon thereafter.

A big upper air low will form over the nation's midsection over the next few days, and then our weather will depend on the movement of that big cutoff low. I go over some of the model differences in today's video.

For the time being, I still lean with the idea of a mainly dry weekend across NC, but that is subject to change, especially the Sunday portion of the weekend.

Here's today's video:

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Fairly quiet overall....

>> Tuesday, April 30, 2013

A maritime flow (northeast) will get established over the next couple of days around the region. This will mean some intervals of clouds and highs running a bit below average. A few showers will be possible as well, especially during the afternoon hours. The best rain chance today will likely be in SC into southern-most NC.

A big Omega block setup will unfold later this week. See the video for the visual on this. But the basic idea is that we will be between storm systems here in the Carolinas. This will result in pretty quiet weather as we head into the weekend with highs running a bit below average.

Here's the video:

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Less rain with time today...

>> Monday, April 29, 2013

What a soaker over the weekend! See today's video for a rundown on some big-time rain totals across the region over the past 48 hours or so.

The shield of rain in the Carolinas will continue to work eastward this morning, but there will continue to be the chance of some scattered showers this afternoon, and then a pretty good blanket of fog will probably form tonight.

An Omega block setup will unfold in the eastern US later this week. See the video for more on what that might mean for our region:

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Nice Friday... Wet weather ahead...

>> Friday, April 26, 2013

Beautiful weather across the region today after a fairly chilly start. Look for sunshine and highs in the lower 70s for most areas.

A cool and wet setup lies ahead. Some showers will begin to work into the region for our Saturday, and then I expect periods of rain Sunday and Monday.

That rain will be falling into a pretty cool airmass, and this will set up a cold air damming scenario. So, it might be a case where many piedmont and foothill spots are in the 50s for much of Sunday and Monday.

The European wants to keep the occasional rain going on through Wednesday and Thursday of next week while the GFS shows some degree of drying. We will see.

See today's video for much more....

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Quiet today and tomorrow.... wet weather for the weekend...

>> Thursday, April 25, 2013

First off, there were some big storms in Louisiana yesterday morning, including a storm that produced a couple of tornadoes near New Orleans. Here is an image sent to me by Hank Allen, Chief Meteorologist at WGNO-TV in New Orleans:




And here is a Base Reflectivity and Velocity radar shot from that storm from Dave Nussbaum, Meteorologist at WBRX-TV in Baton Rouge.



Cooler and drier air is settling into our region behind the departing front, and the result will be very nice weather today and tomorrow.

Wet weather will return this weekend. Some showers will arrive by later Saturday, and Sunday is looking quite wet with periods of rain and cool temps.

See today's video for much more....

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Cold front arrives tonight

>> Wednesday, April 24, 2013

Warmer and breezy weather will unfold around the region today just ahead of an incoming cold front. Highs will push well into the 70s with even an 80 degree reading or two possible in the piedmont.

The main upper level dynamics will be pulling well off to the north with this storm system, so the coverage of showers and storms will dwindle as it crosses the mountains. In fact, there will be some piedmont spots that don't see a drop of rain.

Cooler and quiet weather for us tomorrow and Friday, and I will continue to mention some shower chances this weekend.

See the video for many more details on all of this...

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Next front due in tomorrow night...

>> Tuesday, April 23, 2013

An area of low pressure will pull away from the coast this morning, and in the wake of that low, lots of sunshine will build into the region with pleasant afternoon temps.

Tomorrow will be very nice and warmer just ahead of an incoming front. That front will bring the chance of some showers and storms to the piedmont tomorrow evening and night. The mountains could pick up a shower or storm by tomorrow afternoon.

Overall rain amounts do not look very impressive. The main upper level dynamics will be pulling away to the north, and the coverage and intensity of the showers and storms should dwindle.

At the moment, it looks like a prolonged cold air damming scenario could unfold this weekend into early next work week. This could result in quite cool, showery weather at times.

See the video for more on all of this...

Read more...

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