Cold air has arrived...

We are in the midst of our next blast of colder air. I am watching the goings-on for the middle of next week as well. A sharp trough will dive in and deliver the coldest air we have seen thus far this season by Wednesday and Thursday.

Some models (most notably the European) have wanted to dive enough energy around the base of the incoming trough to pop a big closed upper air low (and an associated surface low offshore) that gives some snow to parts of NC and especially the mid-Atlantic. The GFS and Canadian are much more progressive, only really indicating a cold frontal passage.

As I indicated yesterday, the likelihood of the European scenario working out are slim at best. It would take the perfect orientation of a ridge over the Rockies working with enough energy rounding the base of the incoming trough to form that storm system.

So, with this morning's forecast package, I will continue to indicate very little in the way of precipitation next week but plenty of cold air by mid-week.

See the video for more details: