Unbelievable

My heart is aching for all of the folks in central and eastern NC. This is a tornado outbreak like this region has not seen in a long, long time. Prayers are with everyone impacted by this storm system. April 16 will go down as a red-letter say in North Carolina weather history.

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Saturday late morning....

Our broken line of storms stretches at 10:40 from near Spartanburg to Lenoir to Sparta. All indications are that this will congeal into an intense line of storms by the time it reaches roughly I-77.

Wind damage will be an obvious concern with this line, but there is tons of shear and helicity in place. So this will likely be one of those deals where there will be a few tornadoes embedded within the overall line of storms. And of course, any of the storms that can maintain themselves out ahead of the main line will pose a tornado threat.

We are fully staffed at News 14 Carolina to keep you completely up to date. You need to have a reliable way of hearing watches and warnings through the day.

The biggest problems will likely be for the areas a little east of I-77 on eastward.

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Severe weather...

A moderate risk of severe weather remains in place for much of MS and AL. I believe what we will see happen is the line of storms running from MS into northern AL will likely stall out, or at least nearly stall out. Then, I anticipate new storms firing in MS this afternoon and spreading into AL with time. The areas that are under the line of storms when it stalls could wind up with an extended period of severe storms rolling through.

For the Carolinas, the showers spread in tonight, and by late tonight, some storms could get involved. However, our greatest threat of severe storms will likely come after daybreak tomorrow, and possibly more toward lunch time.

I believe damaging winds will be the primary threat, but there are enough dynamics in place that an isolated tornado or two is also possible.

I also should mention that the mountains and foothills could see some widespread 2" type of rains, depending on how things set up.

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Rain and storms on the way...

After an active severe weather evening and night in parts of OK, KS, AR, and LA...the big severe weather threat shifts eastward today. The largest severe weather threat today will likely be in parts of MS and AL....the threat then continues to shift eastward tonight and Saturday.

Give the video a look...lots of details about the system.

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Beautiful today...rain and storms on the way...

Picture-perfect conditions today in the Carolinas....lots of sun and highs in the 70s. However, another big-time, multi-day severe weather event for the US begins today and ends Saturday. I spend a lot of time on this storm system in today's video....give it a look....

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System later this week....

Looks like another storm system will produce a significant outbreak of severe storms in a lot of places later this week. The threat is over the Plains tomorrow, into the Tennessee Valley and Deep South Friday, and then possibly into the Carolinas Friday night into Saturday.

The dynamics with this system look very, very impressive, and from a synoptic (large) scale, the setup is ominous. However, as is always the case in severe weather, how significant a severe threat is will boil down to small scale features that really can't be determined much in advance.

But with the forcing that will be in place, this will likely be an event that won't require huge amounts of CAPE (instability).

Here's the Day 2 outlook....

Here is the Day 3 probabilities....if these percentages hold, we will likely see this as a moderate risk when this becomes Day 2.

I fully expect to see the Carolinas included in the new Day 3 outlook, or maybe at the end of the Day 2 outlook, tomorrow morning.

Below is the 500mb chart off the 12z run of the Euro....lots of energy pivoting through the base, and the entire tough strongly negatively tilted.

A trough taking on a negative tilt is always more favorable for severe weather. The reason is upper level divergence and diffluence. See how the contours are spreading out over the Carolinas....that is resulting in upper level divergence/diffluence. This then causes the air to more readily rise since there cannot be a vacuum in the atmosphere. Basically, as you spread out the air aloft, the air from down near the surface must rise to fill that void.

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Terrific weather...next system Friday night-Saturday

Wonderful weather will unfold over the next few days for us before the next big system swings in rain and storms into the Carolinas Friday night and Saturday. This system will likely produce severe weather across a lot of real estate once again....see the video for details.

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Scattered showers and storms...

Back into the regular routine this morning....scattered showers and storms today....a few could be strong to severe. Another system at the end of the week. Below is the video with lots of details....

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Monday...

I will be back into the normal routine tomorrow morning....

Our next system will swing into the eastern US today and tonight. Below is the Day 1 convective outlook......notice a broad 'slight' risk covering a lot of real estate....that is the standard severe weather risk.



For the Carolinas, the showers and storms will spread in tonight into tomorrow. While the largest severe weather risk will likely remain west of the region, there will be the chance of some strong to severe storms. Damaging winds and some hail will be the main threats with this system.

I want to say a bit 'thank you' to all of you that relayed information and pictures to us as the weekend severe weather event unfolded. A lot of folks have a big mess to clean up.

Also, if you find that the need arises for some meteorological verification (related to insurance claims, or whatever the case may be), I will have all of the high-res radar data archived from the Saturday severe weather event.

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