System later this week....

>> Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Looks like another storm system will produce a significant outbreak of severe storms in a lot of places later this week. The threat is over the Plains tomorrow, into the Tennessee Valley and Deep South Friday, and then possibly into the Carolinas Friday night into Saturday.

The dynamics with this system look very, very impressive, and from a synoptic (large) scale, the setup is ominous. However, as is always the case in severe weather, how significant a severe threat is will boil down to small scale features that really can't be determined much in advance.

But with the forcing that will be in place, this will likely be an event that won't require huge amounts of CAPE (instability).

Here's the Day 2 outlook....

Here is the Day 3 probabilities....if these percentages hold, we will likely see this as a moderate risk when this becomes Day 2.

I fully expect to see the Carolinas included in the new Day 3 outlook, or maybe at the end of the Day 2 outlook, tomorrow morning.

Below is the 500mb chart off the 12z run of the Euro....lots of energy pivoting through the base, and the entire tough strongly negatively tilted.

A trough taking on a negative tilt is always more favorable for severe weather. The reason is upper level divergence and diffluence. See how the contours are spreading out over the Carolinas....that is resulting in upper level divergence/diffluence. This then causes the air to more readily rise since there cannot be a vacuum in the atmosphere. Basically, as you spread out the air aloft, the air from down near the surface must rise to fill that void.


Shannon 4:55 PM  

I finally saw you on TV live last week. I was in Eden attending a funeral for a member of my wife's family.
Great Job!

Matthew East 5:34 PM  

Thanks, Shannon! Sorry for your family's loss...

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