Saturday Quick Hit...

Busy day today for me, but one I am looking forward to. This morning, my oldest daughter has her first cheer leading game. This afternoon, we have our 4 year old's birthday party. Then of course this evening, the big Panthers game.

But I wanted to say that even though the computer models remain all over the place next week, my general thoughts remain unchanged. It will get colder with time as the week unfolds (in fact, wouldn't be surprised to see some single digits for lows and possibly highs in the 20s at tome juncture). And I think odds are we will have some kind of run in with wintry weather, even if it is not a huge storm. There are just too many clippers that will roll through. It would take some really bad luck for us not to get something out of one of them. But then again, in the snow department, bad luck is something we seem to have plenty of! But we shall see.....

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Sunny Friday...Questions Regarding Next Week...

Above is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video. I really dig deeply into what is going on with some of the modeling for next week in the video, so give it a watch if you are looking for an afternoon nap.

Beautiful sunshine out there today with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s after lows this morning in the 20s.

The exact timing of our cold front and its associated rain chances tomorrow and tomorrow night is still in question. At this point, I still think the main window of opportunity for rain will occur from mid afternoon through the evening time. So, that means we will continue to have to mention the chance of a shower during the big Panthers playoff game tomorrow evening. It should not rain all game, but a passing shower is possible with temps in the lower 50s to upper 40s during the game.

The computer models continue to really struggle with how things unfold next week, and they likely will continue to struggle for the next few days. For instance, our big snowstorm that was on the European model on the 12z Wednesday and 0z Thursday runs vanished with the 12z Thursday and 0z today runs. Why? It now brings in the upper level energy responsible for the possible system into the US around the Great Lakes instead of around Montana.

Much of next week's forecast all depends on the exact timing and track of these relatively small-scale features. So, we will probably continue to see the models bounce around through the weekend.

My thinking as of now is that it will get colder with time next week. We will probably have two (probably pretty weak) systems affect our region...one around Tuesday and another one at the end of the week. For this morning's forecast package, I have mentioned some flurries on both Tuesday and Thursday. But just be aware that anything from very cold and dry to the possibility of something more significant in terms of wintry weather remains possible next week.

Again, see the video... a picture is worth a thousand words....

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Mountain snow today...fun and games next week???

Above is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video. See it for lots of details on the upcoming weather pattern.

Today will be a much calmer day than yesterday. As I mentioned in my Twitter update yesterday afternoon, we unfortunately had a tree fall on the carport portion of our house. At the end of this post are a couple of pictures. I am very thankful, as it could have been a lot worse. My 4 year old was napping in the upstairs room just to the left of where the tree landed.

The NC mountains are picking up a solid snow event today with many spots seeing 2-5" before all is said and done. Around here, a few passing snow or rain showers are possible, but it will not be anything of significance.

A cold front will slide through later Saturday, and it looks like I am going to have to mention good chances for some quick-hitting rain by Saturday afternoon and evening. That also means that there is a pretty decent chance that some rain will fall at some point during the big Panthers game Saturday evening.

Next week, arctic air will take hold over much of the eastern U.S. In fact, I still think at some point we will likely see some pretty brutally cold air. The GFS continues to show chances of some light snow at times, but it is the last 2 runs of the European model that have been a dream for snow lovers around here. In fact, taken literally the 0z Euro today puts down over a foot of snow for much of the Carolinas next Thursday and Friday.

Will than happen? Probably not exactly as being currently shown, but there is a growing chance of at least some winter weather by the end of next week. Stay tuned...

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Amazing weather...

This is one of those mornings where what is going on in the weather is amazing to me. Tremendous temp gradient, winds today, arctic plunge looking likely next week. See the video above for details....

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Watching storm potential....

We will need to keep an eye on the thunderstorm potential tonight. While I don't think we will see a big severe weather outbreak, I do think a few strong to severe storms are possible near and right along the wedge front. Where that sets up will be key to watch. If you have a NOAA Weather Radio, go ahead and leave it on the 'alert' position tonight just to be on the safe side.

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Wet Tuesday...

Above is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video. Give it a look....

The simple portion of the forecast is rain chances. We will see rain at times today, tonight, and into tomorrow. The more complicated part of the forecast is temperatures. A cold air damming event will unfold for us, and that will create a wide range in temps around the state this afternoon and tonight. By late afternoon, we could see the Virginia border counties in the lower 40s while portions of the southern Piedmont are in the 60s.

The wedge will erode away late tonight into tomorrow morning as a cold front approaches, and that is when there will be the opportunity for a few thunderstorms. While I don't think we will have a big problem with severe weather, one or two strong to severe storms can't be ruled out late tonight and tomorrow morning.

The rain will taper off as we head later into tomorrow afternoon. By the time all is said and done, some spots could have seen over two or three inches of rain, so some flooding issues are possible. Up in the mountains, a pretty good upslope snow event will unfold from tomorrow evening into Thursday.

It still looks like a cold front will drop in here Saturday and give us a chance of a little light rain. But at this point, it doesn't look like a big deal.

The models continue to flip and flop on how things unfold from Sunday onward. At this point, you just simply cannot take any one model solution and believe it. Overall, I think the period from Thursday through the 20th or so will average colder than normal...at times possibly much colder than normal. And there will be the potential for a few storm systems as well....but there is nothing yet concrete to hang our hats on.

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Monday morning...

***No new edition of the video today....I will not be in the weather office. New Carolina Weather Video will be posted bright and early tomorrow morning.***

It is a foggy start today as most people get back into a normal routine after the holidays.

I wanted to put up a quick post to talk about the events we have upcoming. It looks like a very healthy rain events will unfold for us over the next 3 days, and it will come in two phases. The brunt of the first phase looks to rill through later tonight into tomorrow morning. For the rest of the day tomorrow, some at least light rain will remain in the forecast, and then another batch of heavier rain will swing in later Tuesday night into Wednesday.

**I will note that the NAM is much colder than the GFS with our wedging scenario coming up. In fact, the 6z NAM brings temps all of the way down to just above freezing around the Triad (using the sounding data via BUFKIT...not the MOS data). In fact, it is an amazing temp gradient being shown on the NAM between the surface and 850mb. While surface temps are just above freezing Wed AM, 850mb temps are in excess of 10 degrees C. We should stay all rain, but you always have to watch for a little bit of a surprise with these types of events.**

Behind that system, a pretty good shot of chilly air will settle in for the second half of the week, and I expect some healthy upslope snows to unfold up in the mountains later this week as well.

Our next system will then roll through over the weekend, mainly later Saturday it appears. Right now, it looks like it will either be rain or nothing here in the Piedmont. Some showers might have to be dodged for the big Panthers game Saturday evening, but I don't have a lot of confidence in that yet. We will fine tune that forecast this week.

I know there are lots of snow-starved folks here in the Carolinas. I feel your pain....I am one of you! My advice is to hang in there and lets see what the rest of winter brings.

All along, I have thought mid-January held at least some promise for us, and I see nothing to change that opinion right now. So, let's see what can develop next week into the week after (January 11-20th or so). The overall pattern is looking fairly favorable for something to try and materialize. If we can't get anything then, we still have a large chuck of winter left.

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