Chilly sunshine...

Above is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video.

I had a great time yesterday afternoon speaking to a good group of students at Hickory Grove Christian School. They were a great and very knowledgeable group!

It is a cold start today with many Piedmont temps in the low to mid 20s. Up in the mountains, some spots are in the single digits.

We will see lots of sunshine today with highs in the 40s. Another very cold one is coming tonight with lows again well down into the 20s.

Our weekend storm system still looks very weak and moisture starved around here. Just ahead of it, we will see lots of sunshine tomorrow with highs up in the low to mid 50s. Then some clouds roll in tomorrow night into Sunday morning, and I can't rule out a few flurries. But I just don't expect any significant precip at this point.

Up in the mountains, some snow showers look likely in the favored northwest facing locations Sunday and Sunday night.

We will be quite chilly around here behind that weak system Sunday into Monday and Tuesday. Highs will again be in the 40s with lows again way down in the 20s.

However, I still anticipate a pattern change next week with much milder air arriving for the second half of the week.

Busy weekend ahead....Jayden has her final cheer leading game of the season tomorrow followed by a team get-together. Then Sunday morning, she is singing in church in the children's choir, and after church I am taking her up to the mountains for some sledding and skiing Sunday afternoon and Monday.

I will be off Monday morning, but I will be back here bright and early Tuesday morning. Enjoy the weekend!

Read more...

Sunny and breezy today...

Above is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video. Give it a look...

Short on time this morning....the video has most of the forecast ideas on there. The weekend system still looks like it will be weak, unless the NAM is correct. But it is sort of out on its own as of this typing. Good discussion from the HPC guys this morning...you can see it here.

I will be speaking about weather and the field of meteorology to a group of students at Hickory Grove Baptist Church this afternoon...should be a good time!

Read more...

Wet Wednesday....weekend storm potential...

Above is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video. Lots of good stuff in there....give it a look today.

Some sleet did indeed mix in with the rain at times this morning, but as expected, it was not a big deal with temps above freezing.

We will have the chance of occasional showers through the afternoon and evening until a cold front sweeps through tonight. Behind the front, the sky will clear late tonight, and we will see lots of sunshine tomorrow.

Tomorrow will be a blustery day with some wind gusts to 30mph or so possible. Up in the mountains, upslope snows will kick in, and some of the favored northwest facing areas could wind up with 3-5" tomorrow and tomorrow night.

All eyes remain on the potential for a winter weather producing system this weekend. The 12z European and Canadian models from yesterday and the 0z Canadian from today came out with some wild, intense solutions that had snow lovers in the Carolinas salivating. However, most other modeling is much more tame with the system.

Right now, I think the tamer solutions are more likely to be correct. The Canadian does not have much support from its ensembles, and today's 0z Euro was back to a more docile solution.

So, for now, I think the best course of action is to leave in the chance of some light snow later Saturday (could be mixed with rain Saturday afternoon) into early Sunday and continue to monitor trends.

Read more...

Storm system set to move in...

Above is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video. In it I discuss our next storm system, the weekend outlook, and some thoughts on the weather pattern as we head into March.

Read more...

Much colder this week...

In the Triad region, rain last night did indeed end as a bit of snow...enough to briefly whiten some cartops. However, as expected, it was really nothing more than a novelty.

Sunshine has returned today, but it is chilly with highs only in the 40s in most spots.

Winter is far from over, and the temps over the next week or so will bear that fact out. Most highs and lows through next Monday should be below average.

Our storm system is still set to move through Wednesday. Because of dry air initially in place, a brief period of sleet is possible as the precip moves in, but we should quickly transition to a chilly, soaking rain event Wednesday into Wednesday evening.

After that system, a shot of cold air moves in for Thursday with another cold blast arriving by later Saturday.

Read more...

Tonight...

Cinnamon rolls in the oven....off to church in less than an hour. But I wanted to throw up a quick post about tonight.

A nice little disturbance will roll through the region overnight. The NAM prints out more precip than the GFS.

850mb temps are below freezing for the duration of the precip, but surface temps will be a problem ins some spots initially. We will likely see some rain move in after midnight, and many spots will see the rain change to at least a bit of snow during the pre-dawn hours.

Accumulations? Again, surface temps will likely be too warm for snow initially, but some locations could wind up with a few hours or snow....especially along and north of I-40. Significant accumulations seem unlikely. However, I would not be surprised if some folks, mainly along and north of I-40, saw some relatively minor accumulations.

If the GFS amount of precip verifies, it won't matter much anyway when any changeover to snow would occur because precip is too light to really matter.

Something interesting to watch.

Enjoy your Sunday,. Back in the saddle in the weather office bright and early tomorrow morning.

Read more...