Congrats to the Lane family on the birth of their son. Truly one of the greatest moments of life!

As for the weather, the latest information is rolling in on Ernesto. Looks like the center has re-formed under the deep convection...so the center has shifted northeast from the earlier recon fix.

Seems most models continue their gradual shift eastward.

At this point, all eventual Gulf landfall options are still open, but I am beginning to get the feeling landfall could be more likely from Louisiana eastward through Florida. Still too early though. Also, another option that is beginning to show up on the models is that Ernesto could really slow down as it approaches the Gulf coast. We will keep watching that.

Assuming Ernesto remains south of Cuba, it still appears some significant strengthening could occur later tomorrow through Monday. I still think we will likely be looking at a major Gulf hurricane.

Also, it is interesting to note the well-defined cold air damming (CAD) set-up around here on some modelling Thursday and Friday. The 12z European model is wild showing a strong CAD around here while a hurricane is making landfall on the Florida Peninsula late next week.

Looks like a busy week ahead in the weather office.

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Ernesto looking dangerous

I am becoming increasingly concerned with what I am seeing with Ernesto. The system has been battling formidable shear for a while now, and not only has it sustained itself, it has actually gotten better organized.

The shear is due to an upper level low (ULL) near Cuba and Jamaica. That ULL should weaken and move westward, away from the path of Ernesto. So, as the shear lessens over the system, it should be all systems go for some fairly rapid strengthening. Think of it like this...

Imagine you are running with a parachute attached to you. You are running and making some progress, but it is incredibly hard work to move forward. Well, now imagine you get cut free from the parachute. You are off to the races and running quite quickly....and it seems rather effort-less.

That is what can happen with Ernesto. When the shear decreases (parachute gets cut free), it could be off to the races intensity-wise. In addition, the Gulf environment looks like it will be favorable for the system, and sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) are very warm there. So, my thinking...

I am getting more and more concerned we will be dealing with a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday or Wednesday. As far as the eventual landfall, anyone is still fair game from Texas to Florida. So, anyone with interesting along the Gulf coast need to closely monitor Ernesto.

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Ernesto and Tara...

Sounds like some sort of movie, doesn't it?

Looks like TD 5 will be classified as a tropical storm with the NHC's 5pm advisory. However, you can clearly see on visible satellite images that the low level center is to the west of the deep convection. Looks like that shear talked about below is now affecting the system.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

As long as that shear remains in place, don't look for major strengthening. In fact, the system will likely look pretty ragged for much of the weekend. However, once Ernesto gets to the western Caribbean Sea and the southern Gulf, things could be in place for some significant strengthening. We shall see....

And, Tara has gone into labor and is in the process of delivering their second bundle of joy. Our prayers with the Lane family for the safe delivery of the new little one....

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Ernesto and Tara...

Sounds like some sort of movie, doesn't it?

Looks like TD 5 will be classified as a tropical storm with the NHC's 5pm advisory. However, you can clearly see on visible satellite images that the low level center is to the west of the deep convection. Looks like that shear talked about below is now affecting the system.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

As long as that shear remains in place, don't look for major strengthening. In fact, the system will likely look pretty ragged for much of the weekend. However, once Ernesto gets to the western Caribbean Sea and the southern Gulf, things could be in place for some significant strengthening. We shall see....

And, Tara has gone into labor and is in the process of delivering their second bundle of joy. Our prayers with the Lane family for the safe delivery of the new little one....

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Ernesto-to-be...

Looking at the data I can see right now, I think TD 5 is a tropical storm. We will know for sure later today when a recon plane gets into the system. It will be interesting to see what the NHC does with their 11am advisory. They want to make sure the center of circulation is underneath the deep convection. If it is, then look out...we could see some fairly rapid strengthening.

Here is how the system looks as of this typing...

Again, if the center of circulation is under that deep convection, we definitely have a tropical storm.

Take a look at this image...

There is an upper level low near Cuba and Hispanola. That ULL will likely increase the shear over TD 5 this weekend, at least temporarily dampening the strengthening trend. If the system survives that increased shear (and I think it will), then by next week the stage could very well be set for this to become a strong hurricane. Time will tell...

As for the track, there has been a generally eastward shift in most of the models since yesterday. Here is how some of the models shape up this morning...

Again, if this thing survives, it almost certainly will be in the Gulf next work week. Eventual landfall at this point would seem to be most likely on the central or western Gulf coast...i.e., somewhere between Texas to about Panama City, FL.

That is where things stand right now. We will be talking much more about this over the weekend. Stay tuned!

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Good morning...

A couple of non-weather notes early this morning. A full post discussing TD 5 will be forthcoming later this morning.

First of all, congrats to Shawn Flynn on his engagement. In case you missed, he proposed to his girlfriend on live television. Here is the clip from last evening...

http://www.news14charlotte.com/content/local_news/?AC=&ArID=125691&SecID=2

Secondly, I listen to an odd combination of things on the radio when I am driving by myself. Of course, when I am with the kids, they are the boss of what we listen to. But, when I am left to my own devices, I am always listening to one of three things....sports talk radio, modern rock, or contemporary Christian.

Well, as I am driving in this morning, I am lstening to a nationally syndicated sports talk radio show. A man calls in and tells a story I found very interesting. Here is the brief synopsis...

The man's mother passes away. So, he and his brother are in the process of cleaning out their mother's attic. In going through the items from the attic, they come across a baseball with four signatures on it. The signatures were...

Josh Gibson
Babe Ruth
Satchel Paige
Lou Gehrig

Unbelievable. They had the signatures authenticated, and an inital offer they got for the ball was roughly a half a million dollars. They have not sold it as of yet.

I am not sure what the lesson to learn from this is. Maybe it is to clean out your attic. I don't know...

Anyway, I will have a full discussion on TD 5 posted later this morning....

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TD 5

Recon closed off a circulation center with our wave in the Windwards....TD 5 now with us. Some interesting track scenarios showing up on the models, but I think through the Caribbean into the Gulf os the way to go right now. Much more on this by tomorrow....

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Thursday Post

Getting back in the saddle now after a few days off and traveling out of town. I have been working on lots of stuff around here behind the scenes over the past couple of weeks getting everything ready to go for our new Triad weather office. Somewhat amazing the problems you can hit getting all of this expensive equiptment up and running properly for a new area.

At any rate, rather hot and dry around here through the weekend. Look for low to mid 90s for highs Friday through Sunday. Our next cold front will slowly slide through here Tuesday and Wednesday and will bring us scattered showers and storms Monday through Wednesday.

Tropics...
The tropics are certainly heating up. First of all, Tropical Storm Debby simply appears to be a "fish storm"....meaning, in all likelihood, the system will recurve over the open waters of the Atlantic, threatening only the north Atlantic shipping lanes. However, Deppy could become a hurricane by the weekend.

Of more interest is the tropical wave now moving into the Windwards. The system looks healthy, and a recon plance will head in there this afternoon to see if we have a new tropical depression or storm.

It appears all systems are 'go' for strengthening of this, and it looks bound for the Gulf of Mexico. In fact, check out this from the 0z run today of the Canadian model...

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2006082400&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=144hr

This system will likely rather quickly become 'Ernesto,' and I think it will be making a lot of headlines by later this weekend and early next week. Stay tuned....

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Checking in....

Sunday afternoon. I don't have many of these off. In fact, I bet I can count on one hand the number of Sunday's I have had off over the past 4 years or so. It seems like the entire country designates Sunday afternoon as "nap time"....

I have had no chance to review weather data over the past few days. I am out of town...had the honor of being in the wedding of one of my closest friends in the world this weekend. Brought back a lot of memories of my wedding...seems like so long ago now.

So, I will simply defer you to the going forecasts from the other talented News 14 Carolina meteorologists this time....not much I can add. Although, I did glance at today's 12z GFS, and if it verifies, this week will be an unsettled one around the Carolinas. It depicts a cold front hanging up nearby, meaning the chance for some passing showers and storms most of the work week.

Also, at least for the time being, the GFS has ceased developing a major hurricane near the eastern US early in September. We will keep watching though....

On another note, I am incredibly ready for football season. This is the time of year where I look at about every piece of information that I can in anticipation of college, NFL, and fantasy football. The Panters continue to look strong....glad to see that. Also, my Mississippi State Bulldogs are having a good camp, and I really do think this is the season we turn things around. Opening game against South Carolina is a week from Thursday!

So, those are the things roaming around my mind this Sunday afternoon. Who knows....I might just give in to the nationally-designated practice of Sunday afternoon "nap time."

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