Friday Evening...

Big system approaching for the weekend. We will have a classic CAD (cold air damming) setup later tonight through Saturday night.

Clouds will roll in tonight and rain will develop in as Saturday unfolds. It is a close call, but I think most of the Charlotte and Triad viewing area will only see a cold rain...no wintry weather issues. However, the northwest Piedmont and foothills could very well see a period of freezing rain Saturday afternoon and evening. In the Triad viewing area, Surry county is under a Freezing Rain Advisory tomorrow afternoon and evening. In the northwest Piedmont and foothills, some icing could occur, mainly on elevated surfaces such as trees and power lines. Some slick spots on bridges and overpasses will be possible as well.

Keep it tuned to News 14 Carolina on television for all of the latest weather information.

I am still hopeful for some good rain amounts out of this system. With systems like these, there is always an area that receives less rain than surrounding areas, but I think at least 0.5" and possibly over 1" of rain are possible with the heaviest rain falling Saturday evening.

Sunday will be very windy with wind gusts to 40 or 50mph possible as arctic air arrives. And I still think some teens are possible Tuesday morning. Brrr.....

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Thursday Evening Bullet-Points...

• Another record-breaking day today....77 in Charlotte and 73 in the Triad.
• Weekend system still looks like rain for much of the Carolinas outside of the mountains. I will say though that the NAM is very impressive with the cold air damming (CAD) and actually continues to indicate the chance for some freezing rain in the foothills and into parts of the Triad region. I think that model is still trying to get a handle on this system, but it is something I am keeping in the back of my head.
  
• Sunday will be very windy. Highs will be in the 40s in many Piedmont locations, and I bet we have some wind gusts to 40 or 50mph.
  
• I am still trying to get a good idea of snow accumulations up in the mountains. There will be some snow, I just don't know how much yet. I provide some weather content for SkiNC and SkiSoutheast, but I am not ready to pull the trigger on snow totals yet. Still a lot of variables in play with this system.
• Much of next week will be chilly. Look for low to mid 20s Monday and Tuesday morning. I wouldn't be shocked if there were a couple of teens Tuesday morning.
  
• The period from December 20 through December 25 looks active. One storm system will move through around next Friday with another one around Christmas Eve or Christmas Day. There will be some cold air around the eastern U.S., so we shall see.....
  

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Weekend system...

Almost all modeling is now farther north with the track of the low pressure area this weekend, and therefore, they show the atmosphere being warmer here than in previous runs. At face value, most modeling is simply indicating some rain for us later Saturday and Saturday night.

I say most, because the NAM continues to be much slower with the track of the low pressure area. Because of the slower track of the low, it allows the cold air damming (CAD) to become better established prior to the precip moving in Saturday night. So, it appears the NAM still leaves the door slightly cracked to the possibility of something wintry outside of the mountains in the Carolinas.

My feeling remains the same as yesterday. This is probably an all-rain system for most of the Carolinas. However, a lot of variables remain in play and will not be resolved for a couple of more days. So, for winter weather fans....all hope is not completely lost, but it doesn't look promising right now.

On another note, the website I had been using to host my videos has removed their option for free video hosting, so I have gone over to Youtube....Let me know if you have any problems. Today's video mainly deals with the weekend storm system.

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Weekend storm system...

I mentioned Friday in this space the possibility for something "interesting" brewing this weekend in the Carolinas. Since that time, various runs of various models have shown this scenario, indicating various types of winter weather threats to North Carolina.

At this point, I think the most likely scenario is a mostly rain one for much of the state outside of the mountains. However, much could change, and my interest remains high. Stay tuned...

I will be back in the weather office tomorrow with more info.

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