Friday Morning...Thoughts on Enterprise, AL

>> Friday, March 02, 2007

A beautiful day is settling into the Carolinas today. Aside from some swollen rivers and streams, you would hardly know a powerful system swept through last night.

A few thoughs about the tragedy in Alabama. First of all, I was born and raised in Alabama, and I have witnessed the destruction of quite a few large tornadoes. One of the most surreal experiences in my life was when I surveyed the horrific damage from the April 8, 1998 F-5 tornado that ripped through western Jefferson County in the Birmingham metro. The damage that occurred in Oak Grove and McDonald's Chapel was simply the worst I had ever seen. Not a building was left standing in the path of that tornado. I vividly recall standing in the parking lot of what was left of the Open Door Baptist Church and seeing all of the cars from the church parking lot tossed down into a large revine beside the church. Behind the church was a large residential area, and I simply remember staring in awe at the incredible destruction. It was simply gone...like some footage you see of a war zone. If memory serves, 32 people lost their lives in that tornado that day.

I bring that up because the footage I have seen from Enterprise, Alabama, albeit limited thus far, immediately took me back to that experience in April almost nine years ago. The damage footage I have seen took me back to that tragic scene that is still etched in my memory. From what I can tell, I feel the Enterprise tornado will be rated at least an EF-3, and probably at least an EF-4 on the new Enhanced Fujita Scale. NWS survey crews will be going through the damage areas today, and we will probably have an official EF rating sometime this afternoon.

The debate will also rage on as to whether or not schools should let children out early on afternoons that severe weather is expected. I personally am of the opinion that kids in most situations are more safe at school than they would be at home, but this is another debate for another blog post sometime.

I am off today. Spending some time with my wife this afternoon and tonight. My next blog post will probably not be until sometime later Saturday evening.

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Baton has been passed

Well, I have passed off the News 14 baton to Bob Child for the Triad market. Thanks to everyone for checking in today. Off to bed I go!

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There's your new watch

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0051.html

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Midnight Post

>> Thursday, March 01, 2007

The SPC is indicating that they will likely issue a new tornado watch relatively soon east of the one currently in effect....in other words, much of the rest of the Triad viewing area, the rest of the Charlotte viewing area, and points eastward. We shall see what exactly they decide to issue over the next hour or so.

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Burning the midnight oil....

Important items on nights like this...

  1. Snacks
  2. Coffee
  3. Ibuprofen
  4. More coffee
  5. More snacks
Sitting and waiting to see what will unfold. Tornado watch in effect for the Charlotte metro and up as far north as Davie county in the Triad market.

Temps and dewpoints slowly creeping up. In fact, Columbia, SC now has a dp of 64 as of 10pm.

Based on a quick look at the temp and dewpoint trends combined with the progress of the cold front, I really think the severe weather potential will mainly be east of I-85...I am thinking GSP-CLT-GSO and points eastward.

Stormcast showing healthy development once the front clears the NC mountains, mainly in the midnight-2am time-frame.

Damaging winds and an isolated tornado remain the biggest threats.

About time to bust out the Chips Ahoy!

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Tornado Watch

Looks like the SPC is about to post a tornado watch that will include parts of the Charlotte metro area....

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Instability

First off, unfortunately, the AP is now reporting that 13 people have lost their lives with the tornadoes in Alabama.

For us, our airmass remains pretty stable in the Piedmont of North Carolina. However, dewpoints in the 60s are steadily marching northward from southern South Carolian and Georgia.

Our severe weather threat tonight will all depend on the amount of instability available. If we get dewpoints up into the lower 60s in the News 14 Carolina viewing areas, then severe weather will be a possibility tonight. It is simply a wait and see matter.

Keep it tuned to News 14 Carolina for weather updates through the evening and night. I am the evening and overnight meteorologist for the Triad News 14 Carolina market, and Jeff Crum is my counterpart for the Charlotte market.

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Enterprise

I just heard that a school in Enterprise, AL has been severely damaged. Children are apparently trapped inside, and evidently some of them are injured. My thoughts and prayers are with them.

I will have some more information on our potential severe weather a little later on....

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Thursday Morning

You almost knew with the size of the 'moderate' risk area on the Day 2 outlook that parts of the Deep South would be under a 'high' risk when the Day 1 outlooks were initiated. Indeed, that is the case.


Here is a statement from the Storm Prediction Center this morning....

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 AM CST THU MAR 01 2007

...A MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS LIKELY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY...LOWER AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GULF AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES.

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS ALSO FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A TORNADOES...SOME WHICH MAY BE STRONG AND LONG
TRACKED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. THIS
AREA IS IN A HIGH RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

ALABAMA
EASTERN MISSISSIPPI

SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER HALF OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES.

A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY THE NEXT
24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH VERY
STRONG JET LEVEL WINDS. AT THE SAME TIME...STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE RAPIDLY TRANSPORTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. SEVERE STORMS ARE ALREADY ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...AND WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE.

THE MOST INTENSE STORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. THESE STORMS
WILL BE IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT STORMS TO ROTATE AND SPAWN
LONG TRACKED...STRONG TORNADOES.

STRONG TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATER TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
TENNESSEE AND GEORGIA....WHILE WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

THIS IS POTENTIALLY A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE
THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND
TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR
POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

Obviously, the biggest severe weather threat is off to our
southwest. However, much of the Carolinas will have a threat
for severe weather this evening and tonight. I will post more
information as the day unfolds....

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Wednesday Afternoon

>> Wednesday, February 28, 2007

Some quick thoughts this afternoon...

  • Wow...what a great day today! Temps warming into the 60s for most folks...good stuff.
  • System still poised to move through late tomorrow and tomorrow night.
  • If we can get dewpoints up into the lower 60s here in the Piedmont, then I think we have a pretty strong likelihood of seeing at least some severe weather tomorrow night. Most model data is indicating that the dewpoints can get that high, so I continue to be concerned about that possibility.
  • If we do see severe weather, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will be the big threats.
I will have some more information for you as we roll through the next 24 hours. Have a great evening....

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Tuesday Morning

>> Tuesday, February 27, 2007

Not much time....sausage cooking in the pan right now....I am normally the breakfast chef around here.....

Strong system will swing through Thursday and Thursday night, exiting Friday morning. I am still concerned about the possibility of severe weather with this one. It sure looks like we have a chance at getting dewpoints up into the lower 60s in the southern Piedmont. If that does occur, it could be a rough night Thursday night. Keep a close watch on this one.

Great weather today...get out and enjoy.

My wife's report from the doctor was an upper respiratory infection. Medication seems to be doing the trick, and she is improving this morning. Thanks for the kind words below!

Time to flip the sausage!

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Monday Morning...

>> Monday, February 26, 2007

A nice in-situ wedge developed Sunday, and that kept us cool and stable....in other words, no severe weather....only a good soaking rain. Most places received between 0.50" and 1.00" of rain in the Charlotte region.

Quick look ahead to this week's weather....We will see quiet weather through Wednesday. The big weather story this week will be another large, sprawling storm system that will move across the country Wednesday through Friday.

For us, it sure looks like there will be much more instability in place around here for this system to work with tha what we saw with the last one, and the dynamics look fairly impressive. So, severe weather looks like a concern Thursday, Thursday night, and into Friday morning. Stay tuned....

Here in the East household, my wife has been under the weather all weekend...looks like the doctor's appointment coming today. Let's hope she gets better.....when mommy is sick, the gears of the house grind to a stop.....

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