Thursday Morning

You almost knew with the size of the 'moderate' risk area on the Day 2 outlook that parts of the Deep South would be under a 'high' risk when the Day 1 outlooks were initiated. Indeed, that is the case.


Here is a statement from the Storm Prediction Center this morning....

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
 0234 AM CST THU MAR 01 2007

 ...A MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS LIKELY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO
 VALLEY...LOWER AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...EASTWARD ACROSS THE
 GULF AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES.

 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS ALSO FORECASTING THE
 DEVELOPMENT OF A TORNADOES...SOME WHICH MAY BE STRONG AND LONG
 TRACKED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. THIS
 AREA IS IN A HIGH RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

 THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

        ALABAMA
        EASTERN MISSISSIPPI

 SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
 THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER HALF OF THE MISSISSIPPI
 VALLEY AND GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES.

 A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD FROM THE MID
 MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY THE NEXT
 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH VERY
 STRONG JET LEVEL WINDS. AT THE SAME TIME...STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY
 WINDS ARE RAPIDLY TRANSPORTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
 FRONT. SEVERE STORMS ARE ALREADY ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS
 PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...AND WITH DAYTIME
 HEATING...THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE.

 THE MOST INTENSE STORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING AND INTO THE
 AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. THESE STORMS
 WILL BE IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT STORMS TO ROTATE AND SPAWN
 LONG TRACKED...STRONG TORNADOES.

 STRONG TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATER TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
 TENNESSEE AND GEORGIA....WHILE WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED
 TORNADOES ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

 THIS IS POTENTIALLY A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE
 THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND
 TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR
 POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

Obviously, the biggest severe weather threat is off to our
southwest. However, much of the Carolinas will have a threat
for severe weather this evening and tonight. I will post more
information as the day unfolds....