12z GFS looks like a nice scenario for snow in the Carolinas Thursday. But again, it is only one run of one model, and it will likely change. But, at least there is somewhat of an agreement amongst a lot of the modeling as of now that we will see a low pressure ride up near the coast late in the week. This would be after the rain Tuesday and especially Wednesday.
Again, no reason to dust off the sleds just yet, but things could certainly look a lot worse from this long away.
Good Saturday morning! Watching the clipper today....still think some flakes are possible across the Piedmont today. Nothing major, but something to watch.
Also, our Thursday system is still there in some form on most modeling this morning. Don't take to heart ANY details on next week's system just yet.
If you want to see something pretty, check out the global Canadian run from 0z today at 132 and 144 hours.
132 hour 0z Canadian
144 hour oz Canadian
Off to meet the coaches this morning for my daughters cheer leading. Then, back home for lots of football!
Looks like I am in the market for a new camcorder. My Canon ZR400 looks like the playback feature has bit the dust. So, any and all advice and suggestions are welcome!
If anyone sees any flakes later, let me know by comment here on the blog or by email if you don't mind.
>> Friday, December 05, 2008
Above is today's edition of the Carolina weather video...see it for some of the graphics for this weekend's clipper and the big storm system next week.
I still think some flakes could fly later tomorrow into tomorrow evening....especially up toward the Triad and Triangle zones. It does not look like anything significant, but fun to watch if you are lucky enough to see some flakes.
Things stay cold around here for a while...lots of highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s.
A lot of questions remain with our big system next week. A lot of the uncertainty with how things will evolve up at 500mb. The 0z and the 6z run of the GFS handled that energy in a different fashion, and thus different weather results around here next Thursday. The European model is even slower, but that is often a bias in the European model....holding upper level energy back too long in the southwest US.
See the video.....easier to show you than type to you what the differences were for us on the 0z versus the 6z GFS.
>> Thursday, December 04, 2008
Above is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video.
A few showers are possible this evening and tonight as out next cold front pushes through. Behind the front, colder air arrives, and we will have a colder than normal airmass in place for a large portion of the next week or so.
Over the weekend, out clipper system is still set to move through Saturday night. A few snowflakes are possible in the Piedmont (and certainly in the mountains, snow will occur), especially from the Triad zones over toward the Triangle.
The big system is still on the maps for next week. The 0z and 6z GFS have indicated a mainly rain-producing system for the Piedmont. In fact, the 6z run really screams a severe weather threat around here Tuesday night.
This will be a complex system, and we probably will not know exactly how this one will evolve for several more days.
I am getting a strong idea that a very significant blast of cold air could push in here behind that system for the second half of next week. We will see....
>> Wednesday, December 03, 2008
Well, the 12z and 18z GFS sure came in with interesting solutions around here next week. Those runs produced a scenario that would be a good dose of rain and then a thumping of snow for the western Piedmont and mountains (mostly snow for the mountains). Below is a frame from the 12z GFS.
Exciting to look at, but please, let me caution you. For that scenario to occur, lots of variables have to line up in exactly the right fashion. It is certainly possible, but I would not plan on breaking out the sleds just yet.
No doubt something interesting to watch over the next several days. Bring on the snow!
Still need to watch the weekend clipper system. The 12z GFS ensembles are much wetter with the system than the operational runs have been. Still something to watch to see if parts of the state can see some flakes over the weekend....
Above is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video. Quite cold this morning with a hard freeze again taking place. In the video, I discuss the weather over the next week or so which will occasionally feature some precip chances.
Frigid start this morning....20s...even some teens in spots. 50s for highs though today and tomorrow.
The next cold front is slowing down bit on recent modeling, and it now looks like tomorrow night into Friday morning for the frontal passage here. Still looks like a few showers possible, but nothing overly significant.
Colder air arrives Friday into next week.
A clipper system will drop through over the weekend... I think a few flurries are possible later Saturday or early Sunday, but the system looks moisture-starved.
A more significant system will roll through next week. The GFS is one of the quickest with that system, moving it in early Tuesday. The Euro is much slower. Right now, looks like mostly rain, but I still can't rule out a bit of wintry precip at the onset if the GFS is correct.
Overall, I don't see any huge winter weather possibilities in the immediate future....but the pattern will be active, and there are lots of question marks, so stay tuned!
>> Tuesday, December 02, 2008
A new edition of the video is available above. No real changes on my thoughts here....some light precip can't be ruled out over the weekend, but most modeling is on the dry side. See the video for details....
>> Monday, December 01, 2008
All right....here is today's video....second attempt was a success!
Looks like some snow showers have 'escaped' from the mountains.....see the radar shot below.
And, for those of you with an interest in astronomy, check this out this evening.
Do you ever have one of those days where it seems you just need to crawl back in bed and start the day over again? Today has been like that for me so far.
Clock went off at its usual time this morning, but I was so out of it, I hit the snooze button twice instead of my usual one time. So, when I finally realize what is going on, I am running a bit behind. Not too bad, but just a bit. So, I go through the normal getting ready process a bit faster than usual. It is then time to head downstairs to cut today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video. Got all of the graphics saved, set everything up, and then cut the video. Went to edit and publish it and the audio and video are out of sync and messed up. Ugh. No time to re-cut the video as it is time to head into the weather office.
I get into the weather office, and I am beginning to put together today's forecast. I turn around from one computer to the next one, and uh oh....just turned over my big travel mug 2/3rds of the way full of coffee. Somehow it turns over at exactly the right angle for the lid to pop off and spill coffee all over the desk and down onto my pants.
What can you do? Oh well, must be Monday.
I will try to get a new edition of the video posted later today if time and software allows.
Very breezy today with southwest winds gusting 20-30mph at times. The weather will be cool and quiet through mid-week, and then an arctic cold front will move through Thursday. That airmass is of pure arctic origins, and it will likely bust a lot of the model numbers for Friday into the weekend. I will continue to go a good bit under the MOS guidance for temps late in the week.
And, I am still no more confident about any precip chances over the weekend or early the following week. Models are still all over the place. I think odds are some precip will occur at some point in there, but when, how much, and what type...I just don't know yet. Could wind up as mostly rain in the Piedmont, could wind up being dry.....but we will see. Just way too many question marks right now.
**6am update....just finished eating some oatmeal for breakfast, and I look down to see the huge patchy of oatmeal perched directly on my tie. Fantastic. I think it is nap time.....
>> Sunday, November 30, 2008
A steady, soaking rain greeted us this morning, and we will have continues chances of rain as the remainder of today unfolds. However, through the afternoon hours, the rain will be more scattered in nature that what we have seen this morning. Temps will remain in the chilly 40s all day.
Drier air will work in tomorrow, and it will be breezy tomorrow afternoon as that drier air arrives.
We will see lots of sunshine Tuesday and Wednesday, and then an arctic cold front will move through Thursday. The airmass behind that front is truly arctic in nature, and that is the type of airmass that will wind up significantly lower than what the computer model numbers (MOS data, specifically) show ahead of time. With my forecast package this morning, I have significantly undercut the MOS numbers Friday through Sunday.
As for precip, our peek-a-boo storm system for next weekend continues to play hide and seek with us on the modeling. There is just simply no way to know exactly how things will unfold at this point. I will continue to mention the possibility of a storm system at some point over the weekend or early the following week, but that is as specific as I can be right now.
Should be fun to watch the Panthers up at Lambeau this afternoon....some snow will likely fall during the game with temps in the 30s and gusty northeasterly winds.
Everyone have a great Sunday. I will be back in my normal Triad morning shift tomorrow morning, and I should have a new edition of the Carolina Weather Video posted very early tomorrow morning.