A wet Friday...

Rain with embedded storms will continue to move through the region today. The ground is saturated in most spots, and we will have to continue to watch the flash flooding potential, especially in urban areas.

Some slightly drier air will slip into the western Carolinas this weekend, but how far east the drier air makes it remains a question mark. I will continue to mention the chance of a few showers Saturday and Sunday roughly from I-77 eastward, but the rain should not be nearly as extensive as what we are seeing today.

A cold front will slide through Tuesday, and behind it we will finally see a significant push of drier air. In fact, we might actually see a couple of sunny day by the second half of next work week!

Ophelia...

The system is battling hostile upper level winds and has weakened a good bit. No changes here on the future track....maybe close to Bermuda but should stay well east of the US coast.

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More showers and storms...

Shower and storm chances will continue to highlight the forecast, at least through tomorrow. We remain in an extremely moist, soupy airmass, and any little disturbance that ripples along will kick of some showers and storms.

The period featuring the most extensive rains could be tonight, and I will have to maintain good shower and storm chances right through tomorrow as well.

Some drier air will try to east into parts of the region from the west this weekend, but I am not sold as to how far it makes it in. So, for the time being, I will maintain the chance of a loose shower or storm each day through Tuesday.

Ophelia...

No big changes here. The modeling is in better agreement this morning, mainly indicating that Ophelia should track a little north of the northeast Caribbean islands. While the steering currents could relax as the system gets east of the Bahamas, I still think the most likely eventual scenario is a recurve prior to threatening the US.

Billingsville Elementary...

I had a great time speaking to some students at Billingsville Elementary yesterday. They were a fantastic group, and they knew their weather!

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Showers and a few storms...

Unsettled weather will be with us over the next few days. Today's forecast will feature a good coverage of showers and storms at times with highs in the 70s. I will keep the chance of at least a few showers and storms in tomorrow's forecast, and then as a cold front approaches, look for good rain and storm chances later tomorrow night into Friday.

For the weekend, I will go ahead and cave and mention the chance of a loose shower or two Saturday and Sunday, but the weekend looks far from a wash-out.

Drier and cooler air will eventually slide in here by next week, and when it does, look for 70s for highs and 50s for lows with a good deal of sun.

Ophelia...

Tropical Storm Ophelia has formed in the Atlantic and will be near the Lesser Antilles later this week. The most likely eventual scenario is a recurve prior to impacting the US, but I can't guarantee that, and we will continue to watch it.

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Shower chances returning...

A fairly gloomy forecast is on tap for much of the rest of the week with some daily shower chances through at least Friday. Highs today will be in the 70s.

A few thunderstorms will become possible tomorrow, and I will maintain the chance of some storms Thursday and Friday as a second cold front approaches the region.

The weekend forecast is less straight-forward that it looked yesterday, but for the time being, I will go with the idea of some drier air working in, giving most of us some dry weekend weather. But it really depends on how far east a cold front makes it, and when it's being driven by a huge cut-off low over the Midwest, nothing is certain. See the video for details.

Tropics...

Still watching the disturbance in the central Atlantic. This still has a good chance of becoming our next classified system.

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Quiet Monday... some rain chances coming...

It did indeed wind up to be very chilly around here Friday and Saturday with the wedge in play. However, it was a bit milder yesterday, and today will be milder still.

Highs this afternoon should warm into the 70s across the region under a partly to mostly cloudy sky.

A cold front is located near the Mississippi River, and that front will get close enough to the region by tomorrow to bring in some shower chances. In fact, some showers are possible in some areas as soon as later tonight.

Some showers also look possible at times Wednesday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 80s.

A big upper level trough will carve out in the nation's midsection mid-week, and that will drive another front our way Thursday and Friday. I will highlight some shower and storm chances in the forecast for Thursday and Friday.

At the moment, the upcoming weekend is looking very nice with highs in the 70s and a good bit of sun.

Tropics...

There is a tropical disturbance in the central Atlantic that continues to slowly organize. This system has a pretty good shot of becoming our next tropical system in the next couple of days.

Winter Outlook...

I am starting to get lots of questions about my thoughts on the upcoming Winter. I am beginning to work on some ideas, and as always, I will try to have my full Winter Outlook out by Halloween.

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