An upper level disturbance and a cold front are approaching the region today, and those features will interact with our warm and muggy airmass and produce scattered showers and storms today through tonight. The severe weather threat today and tonight is a little higher than recent days due to the influence of that upper air disturbance....damaging winds are the primary threat. There remains the potential for some localized flash flooding issues as well.
Sort of a tricky forecast tomorrow as drier air begins to slip in from the north. For the time being, I will maintain the chance of some lingering showers and storms, but for northern NC, those chances will be highest during the morning.
It looks like drier air should win the battle for Sunday in most areas with rain chances confined to South Carolina and immediate SC border areas.
Heat will build early next work week with lots of mid 90s by Monday and especially Tuesday.
It still appears a back-door cold front will move in by mid-week, bringing the chance of some showers and storms. There are signs we might see a bit of a cool-down behind that front for the end of the work week, but I am always skeptical of potential frontal passages in mid-July.
Tropics...
A disturbance in the eastern Gulf continues to be monitored. I still doubt this becomes a classified tropical system, but soaking rains are possible in parts of Florida especially over the next day or two.
Again today, look for scattered storms to fire as the afternoon and evening hours unfold. Highs today will be close to 90 for much of the Piedmont.
An upper level disturbance ripples our way later tomorrow into tomorrow night, and I expect a healthy round of showers and storms to accompany it.
Today through tomorrow night, a few severe storms are possible, and some localized flash flooding issues will likely crop up. And of course, remember the lightning....when thunder roars, go indoors.
Tropics...
I am still watching disorganized showers and storms from Cuba up into parts of Florida and the western Bahamas. No sign of this organizing at all, but this will bring some tropical downpours to parts of Florida and maybe coastal parts of Georgia and the Carolinas over the next couple of days.
I posted this via the social media platforms yesterday afternoon, but I will share it here as well. Here is an excellent time lapse of the haboob (dust storm) in Arizona earlier this week.
We had some overnight showers and storms rumble through the Piedmont. Nothing severe, but some of the storms had some aggressive lightning.
As we progress through our Wednesday, we will have good chances of showers and storms again...and really, the forecast is very much the same tomorrow and Friday. A few severe storms are possible, and some localized flash flooding issues will also likely crop up.
Some upper level ridging builds in from the west later this weekend into early next week. That will mean a big decrease in our storm chances and an increase in our high temps. Look for at least mid 90s for highs by early next work week.
Did you see any of the video from that dust storm in Arizona yesterday? Here are a couple of videos...
We saw an active round of showers and storms roll through the region later in the day for Independence Day and into the evening. We were able to get in many of the fireworks displays just after the storms departed, but around the RDU area, no such luck with the later arrival of the storms.
The weather setup for us will remain largely unchanged for the next several days. We will remain in a very soupy airmass, and as we heat this airmass up each day, look for a healthy coverage of afternoon and evening showers and storms.
Later this weekend into early next week, the coverage of storms will decrease, and the highs will increase.
Tropics....
No immediate problems, but there is a flare-up of storms around the Bahamas that we will keep an eye on. The NAM model tries to organize this over the next couple of days as it moves to the northwest, but that looks fairly unlikely.
Here are the counties included in the Severe Thunderstorm Watch for parts of the region until 8pm.
Storms are increasing in coverage and intensity from eastern Tennessee into the mountains, and they will spread east through this evening. Some storms will likely produce damaging winds, and some hail is also possible.
Also, tons and tons out outdoor activities today due to the Independence Day holiday. Please remember, when thunder roars, go indoors. Lightning is consistently one of the top weather killers in our country.
Happy Fourth!
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