Good shower and storm chances today and tonight

An upper level disturbance and a cold front are approaching the region today, and those features will interact with our warm and muggy airmass and produce scattered showers and storms today through tonight. The severe weather threat today and tonight is a little higher than recent days due to the influence of that upper air disturbance....damaging winds are the primary threat. There remains the potential for some localized flash flooding issues as well.

Sort of a tricky forecast tomorrow as drier air begins to slip in from the north. For the time being, I will maintain the chance of some lingering showers and storms, but for northern NC, those chances will be highest during the morning.

It looks like drier air should win the battle for Sunday in most areas with rain chances confined to South Carolina and immediate SC border areas.

Heat will build early next work week with lots of mid 90s by Monday and especially Tuesday.

It still appears a back-door cold front will move in by mid-week, bringing the chance of some showers and storms. There are signs we might see a bit of a cool-down behind that front for the end of the work week, but I am always skeptical of potential frontal passages in mid-July.

Tropics...

A disturbance in the eastern Gulf continues to be monitored. I still doubt this becomes a classified tropical system, but soaking rains are possible in parts of Florida especially over the next day or two.