>> Saturday, December 16, 2006
Well, the 0z Canadian discussed below is an outlier amongst the computer models....most models just show a slow-moving cold front moving through our area late in the week. Granted, the GFS has occasionally shown some cold air damming signals, but taken literally it is too warm for anything but rain. So, at the moment, I am not overly concerned about wintry weather potential around here next week or weekend.
However, the models continue to really struggle trying to figure out this complex split-flow pattern. So, I don't think it is wise to definitively say anything will or won't happen over the eastern US between now and the end of the year.
But, I will stand by my statement that I think from next Wednesday on, most of the rest of December should be relatively close to average temp wise. And, we could see a decent shot of colder air a time or two between now and the new year. I think this "blowtorch", significantly above average weather pattern is about to come an end.
One of my favorite teleconnections is eastern Asia. Often times, the upper air pattern that is occurring in east Aisa now tends to generally occur over the eastern US about a week or so from now. And, using that teleconnection, I feel fairly confident that we will not see this very warm pattern return after it leaves next week, at least through the new year.
I wish I could add more specifics about any storm systems over the next two weeks, but at this point, I simply cannot. So, I say stay tuned.