Weak system Saturday morning.... Winter storm next week?

A weak area of low pressure will lift up just off the Carolina coast Saturday and throw some precip into the region early tomorrow morning. However, the precip amounts looks light, so this won't be a big deal. Having said that, don't be shocked to see a little light snow or light rain, with the best chance of snow the farther north and west you go. Again though....not a big deal.

Then we will gear up for next week. It's been interesting to watch the adjustments in the modeling for next week over the past several days. Almost every run of every model has indicated winter weather for a large portion of the region, but there have been some very significant differences in timing and type of system between the models and even between runs of the same model.

Just take the GFS today... last night's 0z run was the weakest and fastest model with the system by far. Then 6 hours later with it's 6z run, it's gone to the slowest solution and much more intense than what it had on the 0z.

I show lots of graphics for next week in my video today, and I encourage you to take a look. The bottom line is that I think the odds currently favor winter weather for portions of the region next week. However, the timing and types of precip are still very much in question, and there is obviously still lots of time for changes.

I also give you some thoughts in the video about what is most likely to go 'wrong' for winter weather fans if indeed something does.

Here's the video:

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Chilly today, minor system Saturday morning, watching next week...

Highs today will be in the 40s for most under a veil of high clouds most of the day. A weak disturbance will swing through tonight and bring the chance of a few flurries or sprinkles, but moisture is too limited to be anything significant.

Another system will impact the region Saturday in the form of an area of low pressure just offshore. This does not look like a major system, but it does look like it might throw moisture far enough northwest to get in the area where temps aloft will support a little snow. This would mainly be in the mountains and northern foothills, but even down to I-40 or so, some light snow could be possible. However, this DOES NOT look like a big deal... not enough precip.

Now on to next week where there is potential for a bigger storm system to impact the region. The 0z cycle of models were in good agreement that a significant storm system will impact the region, but there were some timing and track differences. I detail all of this in the video.

The 6z run of the GFS has come in with a less significant system, and I also show why in the video.

The bottom line is this one bears watching. I think there is less potential for model madness with next week's system compared to what we dealt with leading up to Saturday's system, but some changes are inevitable, like we saw with the most recent GFS.

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AM rain and PM sun today, Saturday's system, and a potential system next week....

Lots discussed in today's video.... give it a look:

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Wedge today.... rain today and tonight.... uncertainty for the weekend...

Here is today's video hitting all of the details and modeling for our upcoming weather...

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Active week ahead...

I cover lots of ground in today's video, including a wide variety of model solutions for the upcoming weekend.

A few notes about the upcoming weekend. The models remain quite divergent with their solutions. The 0z GFS was a big NC winter weather event, the 6z is an ice storm for a good chunk of NC. The 0z Canadian indicated wintry precip while the 0z Euro is rain.

That same shotgun output has been a theme through the weekend, and I anticipate more model swings in coming days.

Regarding ensembles, the 0z GFS ensemble was quicker than the operational but similar in track. 0z Euro ens mean was a little south of the operational.

WAY too early for any real confidence in this one....

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